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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

The best pub run I can remember,if just a third of that comes to fruition I will be very happy.

It's average at best. Also so out of kilter with other outputs I wouldn't be giving it much credibility at this stage. 

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The pub run has well and truly been on the Christmas sherries tonight hasn’t it! Crikey I was almost not believing what I was seeing when i was watching the evolution between 120-144

Still it’s the cannon fodder 18z.... remember........ 😂

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Just keep an eye on that height build in the Atlantic again 👀 Canadian side!!

386BF7B8-A73A-4846-9812-F61CD200899B.png
and here it is, could this be the mother load!! 

8F152D76-287C-4443-BAB3-E28A93FD2B1C.png

Edited by Ali1977
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There would be some brutal frosts under that high at day ten and after that there maybe signs of retrogression west.

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.680abb4a9004909bfece1e782c457ded.png

 

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

The pub run has well and truly been on the Christmas sherries tonight hasn’t it! Crikey I was almost not believing what I was seeing when i was watching the evolution between 120-144

Still it’s the cannon fodder 18z.... remember........ 😂

Well after the 12z GFS and EC it wasn't looking anything but woefull?do I think the 18z will come to anything,nope.that said it's a decent run for dry cold weather,that's fine.plus it keeps folk happy 🙂

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GFS 18z showing exactly why I said all options on the table earlier, also another way of cooling things down across Europe although optimal situation would be to get the coldest of the air across Siberia as far west as possible but baby steps and great to see some positivity in here although I would be very surprised if there are not further ups and downs in the runs to come through Christmas, just try to stay as open minded and positive as possible folks :oldgrin: :oldgood:

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7 minutes ago, MKN said:

It's average at best. Also so out of kilter with other outputs I wouldn't be giving it much credibility at this stage. 

Sorry. ‘Average at best’ ?

Explain please. 

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Pub runs are not particularly trusted but can you totally disregard all what is on show,

As stated earlier if there is chance this could happen maybe not in full format it gives the cold 

lovers one hell of a boost.

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Way in fi and possibly the biggest area of high pressure ever🙄🙄look where the PV is 😂🤣🤣

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Nice to see the continent cool down should we get another chance to tap into the east later on!! 

95F4DF34-03AA-4683-ABAB-F01CB19C5BA6.png

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Interesting run.

Generally, my initial reaction would be to laugh and say this will be tomorrow's digital fish wrapper in 12 hours' time.

Yet...at under T192 maybe not to be dismissed out of hand. And there have been hints to support it.

Let's see whether any other runs support it. If not, then my initial reaction would seem right.

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This is a cold run and we would be locked into a cold bubble for a good several days,even Sydney's nuts would be frozen😁

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Just now, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.a2440ea73f2356c6f7cf59529566a676.pngControl slightly different to OP 

Yep, only 5/6 ENS following at day 6, but that little cut off low may be trickier to handle for lower res runs!!  Let’s hope it’s not all gone in the morning, at worst case we end up with a cold HP for a few days atleast. 

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6 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Pub runs are not particularly trusted but can you totally disregard all what is on show,

Last stats I saw showed 06z least reliable. What makes you say the 18z is not particularly trusted? 

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yep, only 5/6 ENS following at day 6, but that little cut off low may be trickier to handle for lower res runs!!  Let’s hope it’s not all gone in the morning, at worst case we end up with a cold HP for a few days atleast. 

Yep and im sure most of us would rather have a cold HP than the current lemon

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Good evening! Long time reader of the forum, first time commenter.

Quite a turnaround this evening (not that I'm buying it 🤨), but would be great for the soutern part of my country...not as extreme as the Battle of Bulge 75 years ago 🥶, but if I have to drive 90' to see some snow, I'm happy to do so 😉

Screenshot_20191221_000222_com.android.chrome.jpg

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12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Way in fi and possibly the biggest area of high pressure ever🙄🙄look where the PV is 😂🤣🤣

Could be worse !...

C0F2B4E3-FC56-44CE-9EBA-7A8A0781412B.png

7B156D0F-F749-4160-826F-E9DC507EE9FA.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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And then to cap it all, we have this GFS T360 in the strat:

image.thumb.jpg.f4666e0c11d61b8b8b1ed638ec6330c6.jpg

So we have multiple routes to cold, in the current model predictions, and a stratospheric warming event that looks to becoming more likely day by day...

Edit: T384 even better:

image.thumb.jpg.c6569b726efe5f46b69a56f579f93c07.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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The control run is a big upgrade in terms of getting that hp cell further north compared to the 12z

180 v 192

gensnh-0-1-180.thumb.png.368571e448b80eef80128a17fc79c937.pnggensnh-0-1-192.thumb.png.3efdd81982da4464f44af8a244d253c6.png

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Could be worse !...

C0F2B4E3-FC56-44CE-9EBA-7A8A0781412B.png

It was actually before that.florida to North Africa -Eurasia !!

Edited by swfc

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lots of very good PTBs not all of a sudden ! Watch that ENS graph !

PTBs 4,5,8,11 😮 ,12,13,16,

All develop good blocks 🙂

A major shift this eve.

 

Hi Steve, where do you view these? Can’t find them on Meteociel ?

edit- scrap that...found them! 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Edited by Tim Bland

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