Model output discussion - into Christmas

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Erm!!!

an easterly is not far off at just 144hrs

this at 150.

come ooooon!!!!

 

Yes - was just going to say - if this keeps up then stuff the 2 inches of slush potential from the channel low, lets get proper cold in instead.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Erm!!!

an easterly is not far off at just 144hrs

this at 150.

come ooooon!!!!

 

Did not expect this at all, maybe the METO saying wet later next week were thinking convection off the North Sea

Look at the 850s lining up, not talking deep FI (or are we in this set up)!! 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

Whether we get the Easterly or not i am sure i am not in a minority hoping GFS 18z is on the money..

Very cold run.

[ICE COLD]

Go on my son . Brilliant run and getting better

[northwestsnow]

Pandemonium in the morning if UKMO/EC follow GFS 18z...

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

T162:

and WAA to come...can this happen?  Massive uncertainty at the moment, but it is good to get the op runs throwing this kind of evolution out due to their higher resolution over the ensembles.  But this uncertainty doesn't come late, it comes at T96 and I am sensing the ops are picking up that that shortwave was a non starter.  I expect to see more runs like this in the morning!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - was just going to say - if this keeps up then stuff the 2 inches of slush potential from the channel low, lets get proper cold in instead.

"Oh! yes!"

N France gets the dumping though.

but not worried as that will change as in will the low head further north?

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

T162:

and WAA to come...can this happen?  Massive uncertainty at the moment, but it is good to get the op runs throwing this kind of evolution out due to their higher resolution over the ensembles.  But this uncertainty doesn't come late, it comes at T96 and I am sensing the ops are picking up that that shortwave was a non starter.  I expect to see more runs like this in the morning!

What do you mean by non starter mate?

[damianslaw]

Not really buying into what any of the models have been showing beyond the reliable 120 hrs past few days, as we have seen so much chopping and changing, all courtesy of very low confidence in developments it has to be said.

There has been a common theme in recent days, GFS 0z, 6z and especially 12z runs have continued to show very progressive atlantic, only for the outcome to be somewhat less progressive, ECM 0z has been indifferent, ECM 12z unusually more progressive than GFS, UKMO holding its own against the GFS and ECM with a much less progressive atlantic outlook - holding the block, GEM and ICON have also been more akin to UKMO, and the GFS 18z has offered up extreme output from cold to very mild, as it often does.

I've held UKMO in most respect so far this month and continue to do so. With this in mind, something drier and chillier for christmas looks on the cards, with the theme possibly holding on for a bit longer than other models would suggest.

 

 

[Ali1977]

WAA about to reinforce the high, this could become epic - caution required , but this is a crazy swing if correct. 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

Just now, shaky said:

What do you mean by non starter mate?

I think the ECM T120 feature in the Atlantic isn't going to happen:

[SMU]

Easterly trigger shortwave at 180

Atlantic energy should undercut here

[Tim Bland]

18z looks a bit like the 00z GEM. Currently a long shot but not out of the question 

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the ECM T120 feature in the Atlantic isn't going to happen:

You could tell the ecm was trying to figure out what to do at 120 hours and had so much potential to deliver from the point onwards but then just went default and bulldozed everything further east!could be looking at different ecm in the morning!!

[Ali1977]

ICE days in Scotland by next friday should this be right, 2-4 maxes in most other places - and only going colder. Midday temps below 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the ECM T120 feature in the Atlantic isn't going to happen:

Its a very odd feature, and would not be surprised to see it suddenly dropped in future runs.

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW!!!

would you look at that,now that is a winter chart

and.....i have just sat back on my chair

because lets see if this progresses in future runs.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Allseasons-si
typo

[That ECM]

The removal of a little feature that improves the chances of cold instead of a little feature that makes promised cold go pear shaped. Now that would be nice for a change. Not convinced but  

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW!!!

would you look at that,now that is a winter chart

and.....i have just sat back on my chair

because lets see if this progresses in future runs.

Yes very festive.great for central Europe or ski resorts

[swfc]

Quite like the GFS.cold and dry threw Xmas if it shows over the next 24-36 hours

[Ali1977]

Just a nice cold HP now, be some -10c’s around I’d imagine, but dry as a bone. Bite ya hand off for this, and who knows another step to the left of the initial WAA and could be even better. Let’s see if it’s supported by the ENS before getting too exited!! 

[Mike Poole]

To be honest I'd take JMA T264 as a dry out, with so much potential going forward with retrogression:

The afternoon and evening runs have left me with a sense there is a cold evolution possible and that it is gaining in traction...and we haven't even mentioned the strat!  

Upgrades today!!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Just a nice cold HP now, be some -10c’s around I’d imagine, but dry as a bone. Bite ya hand off for this, and who knows another step to the left of the initial WAA and could be even better. Let’s see if it’s supported by the ENS before getting too exited!! 

Yes - a lot  colder than the 2m temps say it would be i would suggest.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes very festive.great for central Europe or ski resorts

Yes it's a good run and has backed west considerably compared to previous,more corrections west and we will be in the money and not just in mainland Europe

[West is Best]

Gawd bless the pub run.