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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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1 minute ago, Beanz said:

Well at this won’t be throwing any chilli(y) our way! 

Ha ha!!

12 hours of a not-cold NW'ly at Day 10 before high pressure returns to its favourite winter home of the last 3 decades - France

image.thumb.png.479959e60b9966c4396a4c7259e7dc2b.png

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EC gives the UK a lame short lived northerly at ten days😒😒ah well always tom ladies😁

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9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

If things carry on like this, we'll need someone to enlist the mighty NAVGEM...Or, should that fail -- the BOM??😬:help:

Or for someone to post a historic chart from 1947 both before and after the big late Jan/Feb freeze started to show us how 'things can quickly change'

☹️

Edited by LRD

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I suppose we should count ourselves fortunate Xmas Eve and Day look dry at least, in the context of a very disturbed month ..

Events may be unfolding in the stratosphere - so it is beginning to look like something along those lines may be needed to break out of this horrendous pattern ..

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When I see charts like this...

image.thumb.png.f8c7dae79f9784fd1492fb79b0edafa0.png

...I think that, if it wasn't for the period between Feb 2009 and March 2013, I would be seriously wondering if we would experience a proper cold spell in the UK ever again. But because that period happened I still hope

So, no, I'm not saying winter is over... for ever!!

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5 minutes ago, LRD said:

When I see charts like this...

image.thumb.png.f8c7dae79f9784fd1492fb79b0edafa0.png

...I think that, if it wasn't for the period between Feb 2009 and March 2013, I would be seriously wondering if we would experience a proper cold spell in the UK ever again. But because that period happened I still hope

So, no, I'm not saying winter is over... for ever!!

The pre 2013 era does already seem like an awfully long time ago. But I’m sure we will get another run of cold spells and/or cold winters.

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The JMA could be promising for an easterly down the line..

Anyway.. Hopefully it's right otherwise a lot more people are going to suffer from this constant rain.

Some of the fields down here have developed lakes.

image.thumb.png.176516483e873b0fcee0e192f2fe360e.png

 

 

 

Edited by D.V.R

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What if it's pre Xmas data problems with the models!!!!😗😗😗

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18 minutes ago, LRD said:

Or for someone to post a historic chart from 1947 both before and after the big late Jan/Feb freeze started to show us how 'things can quickly change'

☹️

Only if it and one of today's charts have at least one isobar in common!:santa-emoji:

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I’ve looked behind the sofa, under the bed and where I last left it but can’t find any cold😩😩 but guess I’ll keep hunting 😄😄 

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’ve looked behind the sofa, under the bed and where I last left it but can’t find any cold😩😩 but guess I’ll keep hunting 😄😄 

Well you could post that ECM chart for moral sakes!!! Like NW posted maybe a ssw is the way out.problem is if and when

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10 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

The pre 2013 era does already seem like an awfully long time ago. But I’m sure we will get another run of cold spells and/or cold winters.

It shouldn't be overlooked that the post 2013 era has already produced at least one big cold spell, just last year (calendar wise) so it's not really as if we've gone without one for too long by UK standards. Still we'll be coming up to the 2 year period in just over a couple of months time. Hopefully our luck will change before then and we won't come to the point where it'll have to be at least getting towards 3 years. Though we've gone way longer before, I just hope we don't get to that point.

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Got to be said, there is a fair bit of support for a 'heatwave' in between Xmas and New Year

image.thumb.png.29880d7256da990278ca75cae826270a.png

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17 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It shouldn't be overlooked that the post 2013 era has already produced at least one big cold spell, just last year (calendar wise) so it's not really as if we've gone without one for too long by UK standards. Still we'll be coming up to the 2 year period in just over a couple of months time. Hopefully our luck will change before then and we won't come to the point where it'll have to be at least getting towards 3 years. Though we've gone way longer before, I just hope we don't get to that point.

I don't want to send things off topic but what I would say to this is Feb 18 was, essentially, the ONLY big nationwide cold spell since 2013 and that still blew itself out after about 5 or 6 days so not an epic by any stretch

To bring things back on topic, I don't want to labour a point so this will be my last 'God, isn't this all total crap' type post but I had to highlight one of many awful frames from the GFS 12z control. As bad as it gets for 'winter' and something that could see Dec temp records broken:

image.thumb.png.fc2dbf917fc5349a81a2fbc3ded1d90a.png

Something that, as much as I'd hate to see verify, would be intriguing as to what that would exactly produce on the ground - so from a pure weather point of view, it would be incredible in its own horrible, grim way

Edited by LRD

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15 minutes ago, LRD said:

I don't want to send things off topic but what I would say to this is Feb 18 was, essentially, the ONLY big nationwide cold spell since 2013 and that still blew itself out after about 5 or 6 days so not an epic by any stretch

 

End Feb, whole of March 18 was epic (imby). Never known a 4 weeks like it for so late in Winter, early Spring. A number of decent snowfalls, bitter temps esp the 1st spell.

Edited by Bristle boy

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14 minutes ago, LRD said:

I don't want to send things off topic but what I would say to this is Feb 18 was, essentially, the ONLY big nationwide cold spell since 2013 and that still blew itself out after about 5 or 6 days so not an epic by any stretch

To bring things back on topic, I don't want to labour a point so this will be my last 'God, isn't this all total crap' type post but I had to highlight one of many awful frames from the GFS 12z control. As bad as it gets for 'winter' and something that could see Dec temp records broken:

image.thumb.png.fc2dbf917fc5349a81a2fbc3ded1d90a.png

Something that, as much as I'd hate to see verify, would be intriguing as to what that would exactly produce on the ground - so from a pure weather point of view, it would be incredible in its own horrible, grim way

21.2 winter day high was set this year,  that’s enough for one year. In fact it’s a record I would like to stand forever. That chart if it verified would be low teens imo 

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

End Feb, whole of March 18 was epic (imby). Never known a 4 weeks like it for so late in Winter, early Spring. A number of decent snowfalls, bitter temps esp the 1st spell.

Was it? I recall it getting quite mild just after that cold spell

March 2013 was as you described. Don't recall 2018 being like that though

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Getting fed up of all this rain now, we need a pattern change and still looks like we get one into Christmas, but for how long after? Not long it seems unfortunately.   I am putting very little faith in any of the models at the moment. Here are UKMO and ECM at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.301d39d9d0112da524950314611918a8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fea50cbd232f41098119ef401ad8709e.jpg

Massively different re the low in the Atlantic already, and that affects everything to come, so I'm uncomfortable with anything on an op run beyond T96 at the moment.  Ensembles?  ECM mean and spread T240:

image.thumb.jpg.f824d5d0227b8a92a14e7856c1497857.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5514ca493bc2982c8672555c147c6f30.jpg

The high spread into S Europe does not suggest any kind of consensus at all on a Bartlett type situation - quite the opposite - will be interesting to see the clusters.  Uncertainty reigns, but the cold potential is down a couple of notches at least compared to a couple of days ago.  On we go...

Edited by Mike Poole

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The only good positive i can give you all is that the NAO/AO are still set to tank negative

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.d6d2477637d452f9a8d63e8ac084545c.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.14540377720c8a6818bee482bfc13c1e.gif

well another one is that there seems to be another strat warming appearing on the latest gfs

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.3239a135a76069979a781f0e421767e7.png

in fact i will give you the third as in regards to the models at present because they are still all over the place

UKMO/GFS/ECM at 144

UN144-21.thumb.gif.cf9fdc14d5174d090f88212dc389cc1e.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.80c8868d2871aed8f60fca6c1364215a.pngECH1-144.thumb.gif.a24a9f789082bbb3421980f0aa1e5190.gif

UKMO is the cleanest of the three but will it be right?

still lots to be resolved even before this time frame regarding the shortwave,so anything past this is fl as always until we get clear and cross model support.

 

 

 

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Who is fed up of all this rain?

i am... including probably most not if all on here but i have some good news...

814day_03.thumb.gif.cf79c25fdbeae944d294fc43926a2306.gif

WARNING!!!,this chart doesn't show shortwaves😜😁

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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41 minutes ago, LRD said:

I don't want to send things off topic but what I would say to this is Feb 18 was, essentially, the ONLY big nationwide cold spell since 2013 and that still blew itself out after about 5 or 6 days so not an epic by any stretch

To bring things back on topic, I don't want to labour a point so this will be my last 'God, isn't this all total crap' type post but I had to highlight one of many awful frames from the GFS 12z control. As bad as it gets for 'winter' and something that could see Dec temp records broken:

image.thumb.png.fc2dbf917fc5349a81a2fbc3ded1d90a.png

Something that, as much as I'd hate to see verify, would be intriguing as to what that would exactly produce on the ground - so from a pure weather point of view, it would be incredible in its own horrible, grim way

It were nae like this, when ar were a lud...I can't actually recall a single winter, between 1963 and 1970, that didn't have a week-long stretch of cold, snowy weather, at one time or other..!

How things have changed!😬

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27 minutes ago, LRD said:

Was it? I recall it getting quite mild just after that cold spell

March 2013 was as you described. Don't recall 2018 being like that though

March 2013 was cold but bone dry here. After the snow end Feb 18, 1st few days of March it did indeed go mild  but then we had more cold spells and snow on a couple more occasions through March, unless my memory is failing me.

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3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

March 2013 was cold but bone dry here. After the snow end Feb 18, 1st few days of March it did indeed go mild  but then we had more cold spells and snow on a couple more occasions through March, unless my memory is failing me.

17th to 21st March 18 was another cold spell with Snow most of day on the Sunday.

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.... and back to December 2019 ...

Cheers. 👍

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