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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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The choices seem to be very cold or very mild for FI, I wonder where this Op run sits in the ensembles?

gfsnh-0-204.png

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7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The choices seem to be very cold or very mild for FI, I wonder where this Op run sits in the ensembles?

gfsnh-0-204.png

I’m hoping a warm outlier, but only going off the fact the UKMO looks better. 

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Plenty of good looking ENS, the control looks like the HP may head up to Greenland and introduce something much colder.

FF4F724D-5D65-4903-A788-7C15E817D019.png

And there it goes 

877EB7FD-C319-4659-97B5-AC59E7A2FAC4.png
 

With support from others , where’s this coming from 🤔

EB7E51E0-31C7-4EB1-8F40-941DD70936B7.png

E324C021-4B78-453A-893F-BFB3FFD9ADF8.png

6FB2FE46-47FD-47C3-BA91-28239191896A.png

F922649F-FEBD-49DE-B7C0-A0286ADAAB82.png

64570398-6FAB-4C2A-883C-F5BC09CD068A.png
 

I have a feeling we’re going to have a great ECM this morning!! 

Edited by Ali1977

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I like ukmo run,GFS doing its usual clueless run

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Gfs now showing what the Gem was showing last night with a low pressure system pushing into most of England and Wales on Christmas day with heavy rain and strong winds with some snow on the northern edge of this system for northern England alot of uncertainty with this.. high pressure was shown on previous runs.. 

GFS.. 👇

overview_20191220_00_126.thumb.jpg.dbae341111e30c1a84b5024f660b3ef9.jpg

overview_20191220_00_138.thumb.jpg.4433d5b035d21fe8c30de1d9d2e6cbcd.jpg

overview_20191220_00_144.thumb.jpg.35166015475fd42ba82e14a3edf6850b.jpg

Gem.. 👇

211491631_overview_20191220_00_138(1).thumb.jpg.6afde8c381d37b17adc25b6b88815812.jpg

overview_20191220_00_150.thumb.jpg.11de9c42ff662383bdf524fdbb27f01e.jpg

overview_20191220_00_168.thumb.jpg.aefa0c96e61a3e47a5c7d1764f69ef9b.jpg

GFS ensembles show a Huge upper air temperature difference in the extended range with as much as a 24c difference between the mildest and the coldest ensemble member but the trend is slightly above average but if we have High pressure then those mild temperatures aloft may not be realised on the surface. A drier period than has been the case recently is shown.

195631422_ens_image(7).thumb.png.93a1cc7e9cbd26237c9291ed7b34405e.png 

Edited by jordan smith

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UKMO pick of the bunch at 144

image.thumb.png.dce3915449dbd6a4716ce45a571a71f6.png

EC at the same time not as good

image.thumb.png.8d43208f5343d84d767bd993105010ac.png

UKMO closes off the low to our SW at 120-144, EC/GFS don't, this low looks crucial now.

Edited by northwestsnow

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ECM not buying any easterly yet,another letdown most possibly ,again....

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And the run just unravels thereafter..

In UKMO we trust!!

Ukmo alone,we all know what normally happens ....

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Consistency with the mean again this morning with the overall long-wave pattern for the next 9-10 day. Still the topple situation the most likely.

It is quite clear a Pacific Ridge is not going to help in the next 14 days so we rely on forcing in the UK sector. We see D0 and D10 mean charts:

gensnh-21-1-0.thumb.png.9408282f9f65a55231d80c21f9e2d8d1.png2078020737_gensnh-21-1-240(4).thumb.png.07163c47d32618f093559044e56ee1db.png

The main chunk of the tPV is on the other side of the NH so we get a brief window whilst the Arctic high blocks that chunk, allowing heights to build around our region.  But by D10 the Arctic high has migrated to Siberia and the tPV is released on its journey across the Arctic fields. That sequence will highlight the difficulty in getting a ridge to build and sustain to high-lats, ergo the slow topple. The mean in FI continues that process:

anim_yqd4.gif

The tPV moving back to its more usual place. This synoptic is descriptive of the winter so far, a tPV open to persuasion but no sustained forcing to enable long-term obliteration, ebb and flow, punch for punch, and a draw, with the UK on the less cold side of any incursions, feeding off scraps. We await background signals that can  reboot the underlying pattern.

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Also gfs pretty darn clueless as well as the other models!!!they are all over the place at just 120 and 144 hours!!also gfs seems an outlier in regards to pressure next week and also temps wise!!hopefully its not picked up a new trend!!

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Seems like we're on a kife-edge this morning. The OP runs not really following the ens lead of high pressure dominating....please don't flatten out to a load of westerly mush. I'd love a nice quiet seasonal spell this holiday!

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2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Plenty of good looking ENS, the control looks like the HP may head up to Greenland and introduce something much colder.

FF4F724D-5D65-4903-A788-7C15E817D019.png

And there it goes 

877EB7FD-C319-4659-97B5-AC59E7A2FAC4.png
 

With support from others , where’s this coming from 🤔

EB7E51E0-31C7-4EB1-8F40-941DD70936B7.png

E324C021-4B78-453A-893F-BFB3FFD9ADF8.png

6FB2FE46-47FD-47C3-BA91-28239191896A.png

F922649F-FEBD-49DE-B7C0-A0286ADAAB82.png

64570398-6FAB-4C2A-883C-F5BC09CD068A.png
 

I have a feeling we’re going to have a great ECM this morning!! 

On the contrary Ali, a dreadful 0z Ecm run as others have already implied. Again, it would appear too much energy in the northern arm of the jet will prevent any true amplification northwards. Ops really playing Scrooge at the moment. 

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16 minutes ago, IDO said:

Consistency with the mean again this morning with the overall long-wave pattern for the next 9-10 day. Still the topple situation the most likely.

It is quite clear a Pacific Ridge is not going to help in the next 14 days so we rely on forcing in the UK sector. We see D0 and D10 mean charts:

gensnh-21-1-0.thumb.png.9408282f9f65a55231d80c21f9e2d8d1.png2078020737_gensnh-21-1-240(4).thumb.png.07163c47d32618f093559044e56ee1db.png

The main chunk of the tPV is on the other side of the NH so we get a brief window whilst the Arctic high blocks that chunk, allowing heights to build around our region.  But by D10 the Arctic high has migrated to Siberia and the tPV is released on its journey across the Arctic fields. That sequence will highlight the difficulty in getting a ridge to build and sustain to high-lats, ergo the slow topple. The mean in FI continues that process:

anim_yqd4.gif

The tPV moving back to its more usual place. This synoptic is descriptive of the winter so far, a tPV open to persuasion but no sustained forcing to enable long-term obliteration, ebb and flow, punch for punch, and a draw, with the UK on the less cold side of any incursions, feeding off scraps. We await background signals that can  reboot the underlying pattern.

TBH is their much point talking about day 10 when their is so much

 scatter in the ensemes,they they are verging on the ridiculous

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Lots of scatter after Xmas day/Boxing Day. Let’s hope those cold runs are spotting the right trend.....

8C547017-53CB-4C8D-8C74-898E64D4BAFE.thumb.png.e493d8f1030591e9fd21bc34a874ec2e.png

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17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

TBH is their much point talking about day 10 when their is so much

 scatter in the ensemes,they they are verging on the ridiculous

I see it quite different. Looking at the D10 GEFS they are pretty much saying the same:

gens_panel_aps0.png  graphe_ens4_mfn5.gif

UK HP with very little sign that it will move into a high-lat block. There are of course variations on that theme and that is why there is scatter in the temps but I would argue that this does not mean uncertainty as to the direction of travel. Looking at the ECM D10 mean and it is the same:

1466354475_EDH1-240(2).thumb.gif.d69791952a0877ea3ce371b595bf2eb1.gif

If anything, I would say that the next 10-days are relatively certain (inter and cross model support), more so than recently, apart from the finer details (usual caveats and disclaimers).

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Christmas day is now cold and christmas eve thats all everyone could ask for at the moment,probably not everyone as Mr scooge is about.

image.thumb.png.a46edddfd30a32254a446fcb72778970.pngimage.thumb.png.24359f05622cf942897b3a59069311c4.png

Edited by Snowyowl9

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Can I ask a fairly straight forward question?. We are often told here by certain posters not to compare each GFS run but compare each like for like run. .i.e the 6z with yesterdays 6z etc. Each model run uses I am understanding different parameters? As such they will vary enormously in the mid to long run especially . So.........my question is .......is it possible to compare say the last run with the days before to get a balanced view of subtle changes? And if so where can you show this? I can't seem to see you can on netweather or any of the other sites. I am happy to be pointed in the direction of a link?. 

Franky the wild mood swings in here are systematic of the model run variability so It think this would be a good thing to compare and might even bring some sanity yo this site

Anyway when's the easterly coming? 

 

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Mixed bag this morning,bit of a trend there imo.hopefully a dry spell will transpire enough rain already!!! EC looks a bit rank from a blocking perspective but all subject to change.it would seem GFS coudnt give us a "cold"never mine a cold spell ATM but who knows going forward.ukmo looks fine so far today so see how today pans out

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16 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Can I ask a fairly straight forward question?. We are often told here by certain posters not to compare each GFS run but compare each like for like run. .i.e the 6z with yesterdays 6z etc. Each model run uses I am understanding different parameters? As such they will vary enormously in the mid to long run especially . So.........my question is .......is it possible to compare say the last run with the days before to get a balanced view of subtle changes? And if so where can you show this? I can't seem to see you can on netweather or any of the other sites. I am happy to be pointed in the direction of a link?. 

Franky the wild mood swings in here are systematic of the model run variability so It think this would be a good thing to compare and might even bring some sanity yo this site

Anyway when's the easterly coming? 

 

Sanity to this site? 🤣 it’s all part of the fun.  To get a balanced view you, need to look at all available data and make an educated guess. Still expecting the odd curve ball to be thrown by the weather because it does what it likes not what we would like👍

 

You can compare one run to another from the sites that run the output. 

Edited by That ECM

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23 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Can I ask a fairly straight forward question?. We are often told here by certain posters not to compare each GFS run but compare each like for like run. .i.e the 6z with yesterdays 6z etc. Each model run uses I am understanding different parameters? As such they will vary enormously in the mid to long run especially . So.........my question is .......is it possible to compare say the last run with the days before to get a balanced view of subtle changes? And if so where can you show this? I can't seem to see you can on netweather or any of the other sites. I am happy to be pointed in the direction of a link?. 

Franky the wild mood swings in here are systematic of the model run variability so It think this would be a good thing to compare and might even bring some sanity yo this site

Anyway when's the easterly coming? 

 

Meteociel archives the major models, e.g. GFS:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

 

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ECM certainly looks like it wants to go down a milder path, no outliers in here.

 

graphe_ens3.png

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