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Model output discussion - into Christmas


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Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

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On 18/12/2019 at 15:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

As I have mentioned before how many times over the years have the models handled higher pressure / blocking higher pressure (during winter) well especially out in FI? - Very rarely (one occasion that springs to mind was the GFS performance before the 2010 cold spell which given the time frame was good going but very much an exception since then)

 

GFS showing the usual struggles and poor handling of blocking high pressure as expected (still exact positioning far from resolved but this highlights the move west also the higher pressure toward UK) 

GFS 12z 17th December image.thumb.png.dfb82a8bbf7ec919aaa9deb5b46042a4.png Todays GFS 12z image.thumb.png.5db6ee1f74f2d8a6af487cffba59663a.png

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It is excruciating watching this pattern evolve. A one-wave NH attack is so dependant on timings and the ebb and flows of competing forces to get cold to the UK. If the Pacific Ridge was in the game, that initial ridge would have been a tPV killer leading to all sorts of fun and games. That background signal has never come to fruition so we are watching as the models try and work out how the forces interact for the UK. The 12z run although better early on, leads to a similar UK Sector D10 as the 06z, that was pretty ropey in FI:

1201892853_gfsnh-0-264(6).thumb.png.71a1edcd306f068258ed2c7ecc3f09e3.png1873645406_gfsnh-0-252(3).thumb.png.7173033c38c926d0e280cfbce9e09cb0.png

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1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

icon-5-165.png?19-12

Looks like a reasonable evolution to me.

Is it that messy? 

icon-5-180.png?19-12

the way the small trough cuts through on boxing day is messy and has a big effect on uk surface conditions …. unlikely to verify like that 

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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, wasn't the 12Z a stinker! Maybe it's time to swap snow-chasing for something more realistic...Hunting unicorns perhaps?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Sadly the ENS aren’t much better, hoping the ECM holds some hope.

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16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Sadly the ENS aren’t much better, hoping the ECM holds some hope.

or maybe the gfs is completely wrong,like it has been countless times,whatever it is showing,just a thought.

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53 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-1-240.png?12

The Pool of cold upper (-20) that gets thrown out over Western Russia is one to watch all it needs is the Jet to buckle and drag that with its upper low back west.

It’ll be needed for sure.  An E/NE blocked scenario is no good if the temps aren’t in place further afield 

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1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-1-240.png?12

The Pool of cold upper (-20) that gets thrown out over Western Russia is one to watch all it needs is the Jet to buckle and drag that with its upper low back west.

Even if that doesn’t happen - and the odds of a full blown easterly in the short/medium term I think are probably slim - then it is important anyway that we get some colder air in place over Europe. It has been warm there in recent weeks, and that’s no good for us. One of a number of dominos that need to fall...

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Big 3 at T120:

 

 

image.thumb.png.6ba7c41869306f8c218a189e1273dfc1.png    image.thumb.png.a5fdf0d8cbd28c3dfc67765eec09af94.png    image.thumb.png.86540cc89ae0f97fe05d855fe4095b1b.png

UKMO looking like the odd one out with the lows in the Atlantic. ECM looks to have more oomph down stream with the low over scotland more likely to head east.

Safe to say confidence past D4 isn't great but some form of high pressure looking likely.

Edited by Snowman.
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Nearly Always too much energy in the Atlantic,looks like this run is  not going . the way we want it to go.

Maybe gfs correct then,but not in the reliable timeframe yet,so still time for a better outcome,hoping?

So turning very much milder after xmas according to ecm,miles away from anything resembling winter

Edited by SLEETY
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10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nearly Always too much energy in the Atlantic,looks like this run is  not going . the way we want it to go.

Maybe gfs correct then,but not in the reliable timeframe yet,so still time for a better outcome,hoping?

So turning very much milder after xmas according to ecm,miles away from anything resembling winter

I don't know. At 192 I've seen a lot worse charts! HP over Scandi and a nice tilt on the low pressure system looking like it want's to start going under the high. Granted, next frame is awful!!!

Screenshot 2019-12-19 at 18.55.14.png

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14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nearly Always too much energy in the Atlantic,looks like this run is  not going . the way we want it to go.

Maybe gfs correct then,but not in the reliable timeframe yet,so still time for a better outcome,hoping?

So turning very much milder after xmas according to ecm,miles away from anything resembling winter

Greece and the balkans getting the spoils - again. 

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It’s not just us missing out on snow at Xmas, look how much above average the temp is in  USA and Canada!! Not many cold anomaly’s in the whole NH really, apart from Alaska !! 

3D065398-084A-4E2B-A76C-08B4D09CF20C.png

Edited by Ali1977
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