Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Must be missing data.

Or, more likely, just an errant op run projecting something 9/10 days away that literally has no support.

[North-Easterly Blast]

31 minutes ago, Purga said:

There I was fully expecting to see a totally dire ECM and it desperately tries to to throw up the tempter of an easterly

If a chart like that verified, I am not sure that it would be particularly cold for us with Europe not being that cold.

[frosty ground]

17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Or, more likely, just an errant op run projecting something 9/10 days away that literally has no support.

Like every op run at day 10 

[nick sussex]

The ECM op rises above the dross of the last few days with a decent looking day 9 and 10 chart .

The GFS isn’t interested and delivers a dire op for cold .

Hard to have much faith in the ECM given its performance over recent winters. Over amplified at the longer range which bites the dust after a few runs.

We have to hope that it goes against form and shocks us all !

[Daniel*]

21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Or, more likely, just an errant op run projecting something 9/10 days away that literally has no support.

Not really come out the blue CC Scandi blocking of sorts been advertised in GEFS members in recent days perhaps small in number but there. Also quite striking signal in EC clusters so you’re taking a load of a rubbish quite frankly. No one said we are going to jump into Narnia but building blocks and all that there is some promise. 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Daniel*

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Not really come out the blue CC Scandi blocking of sorts been advertised in GEFS members in recent days perhaps small in number but there. Also quite striking signal in EC clusters so you’re taking a load of a rubbish quite frankly. 

That is not a striking signal for Scandi blocking. The usual misrepresentation of the outputs in this thread

[Daniel*]

Just now, knocker said:

That is not a striking signal for Scandi blocking. The usual misrepresentation of the outputs in this thread

I understand it is not a cut off scandi high, but it is not euro high you could see cold surface conditions. 

[Jeremy Shockey]

for what it is worth ECM 12z and GEM 12z are broadly similar for Jan 12th

[matty40s]

Is it time for a New Year thread now.....at least we can start off positive...

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, fromey said:

Hardly surprising when the vortex is going from strength to strength! 

Must be near record strength for February. By then you’d expect it to be a weak affair!

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Must be near record strength for February. By then you’d expect it to be a weak affair!

Means nothing - the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

EDIT : I must say the trop patterns look like a touch of the 09 / 91's about them this January.

Edited January 2, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

24 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Like every op run at day 10 

Exactly my point 

[bluearmy]

A few eps members throw up scandi highs but just as many create sceuro ones ....

 work in progress but does have some gefs support and it was only yesterday that fi gfs ops were messing with this evolution 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ive noticed how folks get all agitated when the models show no cold whatsoever! And when a model finally shows some, the arguments and petty squabbling starts to rear its head... Only in the UK! Take a look at the NH profile.... At 72hrs you can see the picture of a strong man trying to push the vortex apart.... And hey presto by 240hrs, the jobs a good un... This could be the start of something more interesting later down the line.. 

[northwestsnow]

Nice EC det !!

Unfortunately the mean is not pretty viewing

That said it is not beyond the realms that the det may have picked out the trend.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Duane S.]

Whilst I understand WHY some are effectively writing off January, such a stance is of course utter nonsense. Sure there probably is an increased chance of it being a poor January, when compared to the average January the 2nd starting point, but as per usual it’s as much driven by people’s own negativity and frustration as it is the actual weather chart output. Certain people have gone further still, writing off hope of any positive effects from the stratosphere and the entire winter itself! Good grief, this forum at times...

Anyway, ECM dangles the carrot tonight. As has already been mentioned, not totally on its own either with a few GEFS hinting at such a scenario. A few GEFS members and the ECM Op Day10 hardly an inspiring line up of advocates but in this situation we are not going to get a sudden cold spell emerge out of nowhere for 5 days time, but this looks a feasible way out of this dross to me as we get to mid month. Mid Lat High is a reasonable response, if we could squeeze something a few degrees higher, mores the better.

[Climate Man]

7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Whilst I understand WHY some are effectively writing off January, such a stance is of course utter nonsense. Sure there probably is an increased chance of it being a poor January, when compared to the average January the 2nd starting point, but as per usual it’s as much driven by people’s own negativity and frustration as it is the actual weather chart output. Certain people have gone further still, writing off hope of any positive effects from the stratosphere and the entire winter itself! Good grief, this forum at times...

Anyway, ECM dangles the carrot tonight. As has already been mentioned, not totally on its own either with a few GEFS hinting at such a scenario. A few GEFS members and the ECM Op Day10 hardly an inspiring line up of advocates but in this situation we are not going to get a sudden cold spell emerge out of nowhere for 5 days time, but this looks a feasible way out of this dross to me as we get to mid month. Mid Lat High is a reasonable response, if we could squeeze something a few degrees higher, mores the better.

Agree entirely. Certainly we can write off 10 days but beyond that all is up for grabs and that ECM carrot is not that far away from something at least more seasonal and beyond that.....Things could look entirely  different in the output by the beginning of next week. 

[chris55]

The ECM is decent for avid run by run model watchers looking for a change in the pattern. At last something a bit more blocked in the latter stages.

In isolation it means little - but if it can gather support and continue to show in coming runs we could be onto something:) 

Something to watch out for......or not ...we shall see over the coming days. 

[Chesil View]

15 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Whilst I understand WHY some are effectively writing off January, such a stance is of course utter nonsense. Sure there probably is an increased chance of it being a poor January, when compared to the average January the 2nd starting point, but as per usual it’s as much driven by people’s own negativity and frustration as it is the actual weather chart output. Certain people have gone further still, writing off hope of any positive effects from the stratosphere and the entire winter itself! Good grief, this forum at times...

Anyway, ECM dangles the carrot tonight. As has already been mentioned, not totally on its own either with a few GEFS hinting at such a scenario. A few GEFS members and the ECM Op Day10 hardly an inspiring line up of advocates but in this situation we are not going to get a sudden cold spell emerge out of nowhere for 5 days time, but this looks a feasible way out of this dross to me as we get to mid month. Mid Lat High is a reasonable response, if we could squeeze something a few degrees higher, mores the better.

Yes the usual suspects writing  off January or the whole winter for that matter but as you more to do with negative and jaundiced outlooks than anything meteorological. We just have to wait and weather and patterns do change. Even when the vortex is wound up over pole.

[Allseasons-Si]

54 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ive noticed how folks get all agitated when the models show no cold whatsoever! And when a model finally shows some, the arguments and petty squabbling starts to rear its head... Only in the UK! Take a look at the NH profile.... At 72hrs you can see the picture of a strong man trying to push the vortex apart.... And hey presto by 240hrs, the jobs a good un... This could be the start of something more interesting later down the line.. 

Yes it's the same every year at this time of the year Matt but anyway i will round up my take on this evenings happenings...

the latest from the cpc days 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb height anomaly's showing a huge E Pacific/W Alaskan high with European high amplifying later on with a strong westerly jet in the Atlantic backing SW later,will we get enough amplitude into Scandi from there?,a possibility 

i will take the stella roller coaster car on the ecm control run to Fantasy Island

temps/dew points and wind direction

and last but not least the latest NAO/AO,now if,and a big if is that if we do get an easterly down the line it wouldn't matter what the NAO(north Atlantic oscillation)would show as it would be fighting the PET(polar express train) ,well we live in hope.

lets give it a few days to see if we can manifest a block high enough north to win that golden ticket.

 

[Cleeve Hill]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Yes the usual suspects writing  off January or the whole winter for that matter but as you more to do with negative and jaundiced outlooks than anything meteorological. We just have to wait and weather and patterns do change. Even when the vortex is wound up over pole.

The ECM idea of Scandi blocking mid Jan was also something GP hinted at a few weeks ago. 

There is plenty of Weather Lore about January. Here's a few;

A January warm, the Lord have mercy

A summerish January, a winterish spring

If birds begin to whistle in January, frosts to come 

[Man With Beard]

Aside the hunt for cold... ECM consistently signaling quite a warm day next Tuesday - raw output up to 15C in local spots, suggesting maybe even 16/17C could be achieved - pretty significant warmth for early Jan. 

As for the ECM op, no real surprise for anyone following the mid-Jan ensembles? Lots of output toying with a pressure bump to our east... though I suspect not in the majority of ensembles atm... but the trend has definitely been in the direction of this over the past 48 hours. 

[northwestsnow]

EC monthly more encouraging tonight..

[Nick F]

19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latest from the cpc days 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb height anomaly's showing a huge E Pacific/W Alaskan high with European high amplifying later on with a strong westerly jet in the Atlantic backing SW later,will we get enough amplitude into Scandi from there?,a possibility 

 

Those CPC charts tie in with the extended 12z EPS mean suggesting perhaps some cross polar pinch on the tPV from both the EPO ridge extending north towards the pole and Scandi ridge doing likewise from the other side. This cross polar ridging, albeit not a strong signal yet, may push the tPV lobes further south over N America and N Atlantic.

signs of the strongly positive AO relaxing to more neutral values too in the ens toward mid-month

NAO going same way too

Long road to recovery of some weather resembling winter rather than autumn, but a few tentative signs appearing ... for now

Edited January 2, 2020 by Nick F

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC monthly more encouraging tonight..

Well post the charts then,i don't have the link any more