Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into Christmas


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The IOD is now effectively down to neutral and should no longer inhibit the MJO progression, I see there has been record rainfall in Jakarta, maybe that is a sign the IOD is no longer an issue?

The MJO looks fairly high amplitude as to moves through 4-5, but will it maintain amplitude as it moves into more favorable 7-8-1 towards the end of the month or will some other unknown simply overwhelm it?

image.thumb.png.43a1a523104fbb4c646f50d38ad63fee.png

  

Yea there was big movement around 24th 25th 26th but this has died back again? IOD

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
5 hours ago, booferking said:

Exceptional Bush fires in Australia  unprecedented levels never seen before exceptional warmth around the world this year never seen before top to bottom, uk winter is dead for me i have moved on to spring mode.

yes, can't say I'm not looking forward to feeling a bit of warm sun com early march ...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Mid January upping the odds of a mid-latitude block either over the UK or further east - not an instant route to cold but could be a building block

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010200_360.

The biggest cluster looks horrendous.

All our eggs in basket 2 ...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The biggest cluster looks horrendous.

All our eggs in basket 2 ...

Rather nice I would imagine with the surface high to the south east and some southerly zephyrs

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 12z...... Horrendous for coldies. 

Hardly surprising when the vortex is going from strength to strength! 

095E47E6-2B70-48BB-9A59-6967B198586D.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Across the board is pretty hopeless alright. 

How not busy this thread is for the time of year says it all really. 

My hopes are pinned on changes emerging in the second half of the month running in to February. 

Mid month mean GFS 

gens-21-1-288.png

Edited by The Eagle
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

A few decent NH profiles in FI. Still all on schedule for a 1947 type spell over similar dates  

467ACEA6-6D90-4DCB-8843-EF6D6DFC0C70.png

50B6196B-2CB8-4442-82D9-89A70C636682.png

6BB9F343-C9C9-493E-9A31-520B1FA070BF.png

CEABAB12-E78F-4EE0-AA9A-6DC074536166.png

590D15E0-0120-42AA-BD2B-0C41E4D21B99.png

9A3DB130-2878-4CC8-B835-458FD039AF32.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Gee willickers, the 12Z is exciting!

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png Aaaargh!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The ECM again flatter than GFS at day 4, the GFS seems to struggle even at this range lately, I’m sticking to the FIM from now on - a proper weather computer!! 

04F93149-921A-46FF-B5BB-CCF4CEB6973C.png

074B8413-581A-4F1B-B3C0-13425DE770E6.png

Edited by Ali1977
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A few decent NH profiles in FI. Still all on schedule for a 1947 type spell over similar dates  

 

I know it's only said in jest, but I can't even comfort myself with the thought of what 1947 ended up being after a very mild middle of January this winter!

I wonder if this forum and the models had been had been around back then, when, during the month, the excitement would have commenced ? 

Fact is, the 1946/47 winter had already produced some cold spells with easterlies, so I suspect there would have been some anticipation that something extreme could happen. And so it turned out.....the door had been banged on so much that it finally gave way.

There's no way that's ever going to happen this winter.  There's barely the imprint of a knuckle on the door now whereas there were cracks in the door in January 1947. 

But can you imagine what the forum would have been like as the models began to firm up on the idea of the change that did eventually happen!  Happiness in the forum actually followed by real life satisfaction! 

<Wanted to insert the archive charts from 14/1/1947 and 22/1/1947 here but can't seem to access them!>

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
19 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I know it's only said in jest, but I can't even comfort myself with the thought of what 1947 ended up being after a very mild middle of January this winter!

I wonder if this forum and the models had been had been around back then, when, during the month, the excitement would have commenced ? 

Fact is, the 1946/47 winter had already produced some cold spells with easterlies, so I suspect there would have been some anticipation that something extreme could happen. And so it turned out.....the door had been banged on so much that it finally gave way.

There's no way that's ever going to happen this winter.  There's barely the imprint of a knuckle on the door now whereas there were cracks in the door in January 1947. 

But can you imagine what the forum would have been like as the models began to firm up on the idea of the change that did eventually happen!  Happiness in the forum actually followed by real life satisfaction! 

<Wanted to insert the archive charts from 14/1/1947 and 22/1/1947 here but can't seem to access them!>

 

 

 

 

 

There would still have been loads looking for the breakdown

 

Here is some of the output

F9E90BD6-71CB-484E-BD2A-23F5DC1552C1.jpeg

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

who says a scandi Hp ain't possible which some suggest a glimmer of hope maybe?

ECM1-216.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Well ECM at day 9 tonight a much better chart than the poor ones we have been seeing over the last several days. 

4F18F005-E4F8-4E14-994F-B32D23902C74.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Well ECM at day 9 tonight a much better chart than the poor ones we have been seeing over the last several days. 

4F18F005-E4F8-4E14-994F-B32D23902C74.png

A better chart than many others in the output tonight.  One question is will it happen, and if yes it does happen, whether the blocking sets up favourably to bring a cold spell to the UK is a different question.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ECM day ten....HURRAH!!!!

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.2885c1ef506911c8a81ed698fff38fc8.gif

gem not bad either and like i have been saying the last few days,the cfs has been showing a Scandi high.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

ECM day ten....HURRAH!!!!

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.2885c1ef506911c8a81ed698fff38fc8.gif

gem not bad either and like i have been saying the last few days,the cfs has been showing a Scandi high.

baby steps to a cold spell; if a chart at as far out as day ten verifies.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

baby steps to a cold spell; if a chart at as far out as day ten verifies.

Yes i know the drill

it's a damn site better than what has been showing for what seems like an eternity.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

There I was fully expecting to see a totally dire ECM and it desperately tries to to throw up the tempter of an easterly

image.thumb.png.9db743d733ba1962586a2a257848ede3.png

Edited by Purga
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^ We know ECM D9-D10 charts when they see a height rise the op nearly always shows the extreme end of that possibility, that rarely if ever verifies. The GFS is also seeing that lull in the zonal energy:

1865727757_gfseu-0-240(1).thumb.png.14a9bf4bb5bd63eccb9bf0b48261b835.png

I suspect that is the other end of the spectrum! The GEFS have a few members close to the ECM at D9. One goes to this at D11:

gensnh-20-1-276.thumb.png.ed1c5aea1a09d096e9dbcccab4f87773.png

What normally happens is they meet in the middle and it turns out to be nothing of note. It would have to get down to D6 on ECM before I took it seriously. Maybe ECM will surprise us with one of those amplified D10 charts? It is overdue!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
6 hours ago, jules216 said:

GEFS lala land mean is not million miles away from an easterly scenario, will not believe it at all. It would be nice to hear from @Glacier Point view on January outcome. He mentioned that January would be a more throughy month with some residual heights to the north of UK, yet outlook is very zonal and no sign of southerly tracking jet stream as much as perhaps thought, some other forecasters in US had January composite maps that suggested Euro trough rather then Euro High that is on the menu now, something must have gone wrong then.

gens-21-5-384.png

Well maybe it’s beginning earlier than end of January l.Is the ECM beginning to sniff out the possible dramatic pattern change after tonight’s run. just gone?

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Between GFS throwing possible pin ball low pressure over southern U.K. and now ECM a possible 

Scandinavian High pressure,both at a difficult time frame to get exactly correct.I personally would take

either,or both together.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...