Model output discussion - into Christmas

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is a Scandi block showing on most of the gefs ens in fl Feb

 

the mean isn't to be sniffed at either.

 

 

If we could start ticking that down we would be in business, even if it were not to bare fruit initially, a good chance it would in Feb via an SSW, but will it tick down though or gone again on next run?

[jules216]

Last few GFS ops. have been very zonal until the 384hrs, some ensembles are more positive with raising  Scandi block.This Saturday/Sunday amplification that GFS offered days ago has vanished as per most recent climo where throughing activity diving south in to EU is toned down in to a 1 or 2 day event,this is about 5th ocassion this winter where worst case scenario model turned out right,this time EC vs GFS 1:0. I am astonished when I read posts here that are optimistic for UK perspective as other forums I read in my home land are negative toxic and rating this winter zero, and en mass claiming winter is over when our friend Euro High appears.

[Radiating Dendrite]

43 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Last few GFS ops. have been very zonal until the 384hrs, some ensembles are more positive with raising  Scandi block.This Saturday/Sunday amplification that GFS offered days ago has vanished as per most recent climo where throughing activity diving south in to EU is toned down in to a 1 or 2 day event,this is about 5th ocassion this winter where worst case scenario model turned out right,this time EC vs GFS 1:0. I am astonished when I read posts here that are optimistic for UK perspective as other forums I read in my home land are negative toxic and rating this winter zero, and en mass claiming winter is over when our friend Euro High appears.

No harm in a little bit of hope - Keep Calm and Carry On.

This winter is turning into the weather equivalent of Brexit though.....stuck in a rut and not going anywhere fast. Maybe come February we will get a sudden cold resolution. 

[Ali1977]

ECM is dire, EURO HP looks relentless. Prob one of those times to have a break from model watching for a week - as if people actually do that!!

[IDO]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Last few GFS ops. have been very zonal until the 384hrs, some ensembles are more positive with raising  Scandi block.This Saturday/Sunday amplification that GFS offered days ago has vanished as per most recent climo where throughing activity diving south in to EU is toned down in to a 1 or 2 day event,this is about 5th ocassion this winter where worst case scenario model turned out right,this time EC vs GFS 1:0. I am astonished when I read posts here that are optimistic for UK perspective as other forums I read in my home land are negative toxic and rating this winter zero, and en mass claiming winter is over when our friend Euro High appears.

We know from previous model watching that when a true zonal onslaught from strat>trop coupling arrives, at best, 6-weeks of winter is lost. So February is the new start of winter and we will see if we can get the usual cool wet Spring from an SSW or we can get some cold from a pattern change in late Winter?

No change this morning out till D16. No sign on the op of Scandi heights, that simply hasn't been modelled on the op and any mean just reflects the ebb and flow of the tPV circulating to our north. We need tropical forcing rather than transient features within a predominantly zonal flow. A Pacific High rather than a ridge is not going to help trop wise, just tempering the upstream flow. Thankfully with weather something may crop up, but in the big scheme it is going to be a hard month for cold watchers.

[northwestsnow]

As anticipated, first half of Jan is a wipe out, if we get to this landing point by day 10 on EC then you can easily add another week to that ..(minimum).

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM is dire, EURO HP looks relentless. Prob one of those times to have a break from model watching for a week - as if people actually do that!!

Yes, its usually my favourite time of the year for model watching but its got to the stage were i just quickly scan through with little enthusiasm ..

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As anticipated, first half of Jan is a wipe out, if we get to this landing point by day 10 on EC then you can easily add another week to that ..(minimum).

 

Looks more like something from late spring...



Zonal winds went above average just before mid December, and will stay that way out until the middle of January too. Don't expect any fireworks until the last 10/14 days of this month, if we see anything at all. Until then, enjoy the mildness?

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

Last few GFS ops. have been very zonal until the 384hrs, some ensembles are more positive with raising  Scandi block.This Saturday/Sunday amplification that GFS offered days ago has vanished as per most recent climo where throughing activity diving south in to EU is toned down in to a 1 or 2 day event,this is about 5th ocassion this winter where worst case scenario model turned out right,this time EC vs GFS 1:0. I am astonished when I read posts here that are optimistic for UK perspective as other forums I read in my home land are negative toxic and rating this winter zero, and en mass claiming winter is over when our friend Euro High appears.

Hi there, defo the view over here. Disaster winter of 88/89 on the cards. Already prep to save the precious

 snow in resort. Shifting loads to higher elevation, however with model forecasts of 10c at 850mb height for the next week or so , that is going to be difficult.

C

Edited January 2, 2020 by carinthian

[Methuselah]

Good morning, folks. And, nowt beats a good dose of early-morning clarity!

GEFS 00Z ensembles: 

                                      

As the old adage goes: a picture polishes a thousand turds?!

[booferking]

Exceptional Bush fires in Australia  unprecedented levels never seen before exceptional warmth around the world this year never seen before top to bottom, uk winter is dead for me i have moved on to spring mode.

Positive IOD 

Negative  AAO

Could be a big driver of are weather NH.

[mountain shadow]

15 minutes ago, booferking said:

Exceptional Bush fires in Australia  unprecedented levels never seen before exceptional warmth around the world this year never seen before top to bottom, uk winter is dead for me i have moved on to spring mode.

Positive IOD 

Negative  AAO

Could be a big driver of are weather NH.

The IOD is now effectively down to neutral and should no longer inhibit the MJO progression, I see there has been record rainfall in Jakarta, maybe that is a sign the IOD is no longer an issue?

The MJO looks fairly high amplitude as to moves through 4-5, but will it maintain amplitude as it moves into more favorable 7-8-1 towards the end of the month or will some other unknown simply overwhelm it?

  

Edited January 2, 2020 by mountain shadow

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The IOD is now effectively down to neutral and should no longer inhibit the MJO progression, I see there has been record rainfall in Jakarta, maybe that is a sign the IOD is no longer an issue?

The MJO looks fairly high amplitude as to moves through 4-5, but will it maintain amplitude as it moves into more favorable 7-8-1 towards the end of the month or will some other unknown simply overwhelm it?

  

I personally think it will meekly curve back round into the COD. Our last attempt at 7/8/1 did nothing. That said, AAM is very high which could perhaps help shake things up - though it is up against a firm brick wall in the atmosphere at present.

[Duane S.]

23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The IOD is now effectively down to neutral and should no longer inhibit the MJO progression, I see there has been record rainfall in Jakarta, maybe that is a sign the IOD is no longer an issue?

The MJO looks fairly high amplitude as to moves through 4-5, but will it maintain amplitude as it moves into more favorable 7-8-1 towards the end of the month or will some other unknown simply overwhelm it?

  

Yep, main players all on the same page now fnally.

Generally, progress to Pacific phases via earlier IO / Asia phases etc tends to be preferable than emerging out of the COD straight into the Pacific.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by s4lancia

[That ECM]

Sometimes when watching the output you are frantically pressing refresh in anticipation and sometimes you get to 10.00 a.m and think I haven’t looked at the output yet. We are firmly in the second scenario but nothing is for ever

[The Eagle]

All the models are in default zonal mode with the pattern. The forecast accuracy stretches out further in these situations so yeah, very little positive to go on for coldies. 

Going to take something special to break this down and the way the strat temperature profile is at the moment it looks like the PV will continue spinning like a washing machine on full blast for most if not all of this month. People are saying the fist half of January as a write off, looks longer than that to be honest.

I'm always glass half full even now so hopefully something happens and we get a quick flip on an important signal in the next couple of weeks. 

[Catacol]

Was hoping for some cheer from the JMA weeklies, but no such luck. Blocked into week 2 but then second half of the month this horror show

Note the potent combination of south east US ridge and Azores high. A standing wave pattern all of our own....+AO locked in.

Its going to take a substantial jolt to break this. Remind me to take Mr +IOD-inspired-standingwave off my Xmas card list.

[jules216]

I am wondering with all the background signals and models showing nothing else but zonality for foreseeable future, how come CFS has the  ability of throwing 1987 scenarios in 2 weeks time. What is wrong with this model? I see very little point in viewing this long range product with it jumping from one extreme to another with each new output. Other long range models are prone to swings sometimes,but CFS is just useless. 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

I am wondering with all the background signals and models showing nothing else but zonality for foreseeable future, how come CFS has the  ability of throwing 1987 scenarios in 2 weeks time. CFS is just useless. 

Edited for your answer

[mountain shadow]

18 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I am wondering with all the background signals and models showing nothing else but zonality for foreseeable future, how come CFS has the  ability of throwing 1987 scenarios in 2 weeks time. What is wrong with this model? I see very little point in viewing this long range product with it jumping from one extreme to another with each new output. Other long range models are prone to swings sometimes,but CFS is just useless. 

Does make you wonder why they spend any money on it.

GFS 6z complete dross.

[MP-R]

GFS 06Z again flirting with various wedgies of higher pressure between lows. FI indeed shows a surface flow off the continent even though not particularly cold. That seems much more plausible than Atlantic hurricane-style lows or frigid beasterlies a la CFS.

[jules216]

Another thing that is quite bemusing, when you read US forums they talk about MJO cold phases being  8 and 1, yet when I looked at composites for January phases 5,6 and 7 are much colder in Europe then 8 and 1. See examples attached. Phases 5 and 6 suggest mean north westerly flow while phase 1 is Euro high  

[SLEETY]

52 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I am wondering with all the background signals and models showing nothing else but zonality for foreseeable future, how come CFS has the  ability of throwing 1987 scenarios in 2 weeks time. What is wrong with this model? I see very little point in viewing this long range product with it jumping from one extreme to another with each new output. Other long range models are prone to swings sometimes,but CFS is just useless. 

Cfs a bit early with that scenario,lol,it’s at the end of january through till at least mid-febuary that rthe above pattern is expected to dominate the weather over U.K. and much of Europe,according to some forecasters.

So need to wait a couple of weeks before the models show the signs of change.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Cfs a bit early with that scenario,lol,it’s at the end of january through till at least mid-febuary that rthe above pattern is expected to dominate the weather over U.K. and much of Europe,according to some forecasters.

So need to wait a couple of weeks before the models show the signs of change.

I wasn't aware that 'the above pattern is expected to dominate the weather over the U.K.', period; CFS's usual nonsense notwithstanding, of course?

Though the GFS 06Z operational does end with this:

    

Which, given the excessive amount of ensemble-scatter, doesn't exactly inspire much confidence, in the expectation department:

    

    

One can always hope, however!

Edited January 2, 2020 by General Cluster

[jules216]

20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Cfs a bit early with that scenario,lol,it’s at the end of january through till at least mid-febuary that rthe above pattern is expected to dominate the weather over U.K. and much of Europe,according to some forecasters.

So need to wait a couple of weeks before the models show the signs of change.

GEFS lala land mean is not million miles away from an easterly scenario, will not believe it at all. It would be nice to hear from @Glacier Point view on January outcome. He mentioned that January would be a more throughy month with some residual heights to the north of UK, yet outlook is very zonal and no sign of southerly tracking jet stream as much as perhaps thought, some other forecasters in US had January composite maps that suggested Euro trough rather then Euro High that is on the menu now, something must have gone wrong then.