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Model output discussion - into Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

LOL looks like the GFS is struggling at the moment moving away now from a frosty outlook in FI land.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The day 8 precipitation mean doesn’t suggest the HP will hold in Central Europe!! Still lots unresolved in the short range 

E896D9E8-BC81-4435-BB84-92901CBA78D3.png

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
3 hours ago, Nick F said:

I think, if you’ve not already, that we will have to lower expectations for January re: cold and snow, history indicates that once a strong +AO along with +NAO sets in by the New Year, it could last for the rest of the winter. We only have to look at real stinkers of winters for cold and snow with +AO/+NAO most of the winter to be worried: to name a few 2013/2014; 2007/2008; 1999/2000; 1997/1998; 1989/1990; 1988/1989. Once the +AO/+NAO combo sets in, the models generally tend to perform better over longer time frames than when these indices are negative.

Although the MJO briefly orbits through 7-8, it does so at low amplitude, so will likely have little effect on changing the wavelengths over the N Atlantic, furthermore there is strong support for the MJO to swiftly die into COD then emerge into the Maritime Continent, phases 4-5, which are warm phases, so there will likely be no help from the MJO through much of January. Though it is possible that the MJO will progress onwards to colder phases by mid-January – but the lag of this probably not having an effect until towards end of the month.

The AO flipped suddenly from -2 to +3 in a space of a few days recently in December, so I suppose there’s chance that it may flip back –ve later in January or February – though it’s not quite clear what the precursor for this would be. But there is also every likelihood that it could remain +ve through much of the rest of the winter. The QBO has only recently turned easterly, so unlikely this will have an impact on the PV until later in winter, when the PV would normally start to wane anyway. So we are kind of reliant on tropical forcing over the Pacific changing the patterns at high latitudes, of which there is unlikely to be much help from for a few weeks at least. There is EAMT and GLAAM to consider, but that’s not my forte, so cannot really suggest if these will have positive impacts.

 I have to agree with you Nick it is also in line with most of the long-range models that forecasted this winter will be a plus nao  winter looking at ECMWF seasonal update it doesn’t paint a pretty picture nor does the DWD or mtia France. in fact the DWD looks really unsettled even into spring.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

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GFS 06 z still sticking resolutely to its guns for the potential Sat 4th Jan cold shot.

( it would be very interesting if GFS has got the position of the high correct versus the UKMO and ECM at just t102 )

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It looks (at least to Yours Truly) that, post Day 7, all vestiges of a signal are completely swamped by noise/uncertainty...?:shok:

t850Bedfordshire.png   prmslBedfordshire.png,

Which would suggest that the same will apply to all the other models, too?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
33 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Very good watching in regards high pressure positioning,GFS v ECM UK MET still lots to work out .

Will it be a colder continental air stream or more Southwesterly,any body’s guess.

1 GEFS member looks like supporting the flatter ECM scenario , it could be right I guess!! Definite sign of change afterwards though, HP vs W/NE flow - neither that cold but snow row shows a few chances with some ENS

53F1B14E-3E20-45AD-8BED-49A764173B9E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
6 hours ago, West is Best said:

This is relentless.

Meanwhile, every Australian state hits 40C.

It's pretty difficult to ignore that AGW is driving our own model outputs. The power of the jet this whole autumn / early winter is something to behold. Every time you think it's about to relent, it roars back. Sigh.

425635033_Screenshot2019-12-31at07_24_12.thumb.png.dda8c8f611d09a2d55a9f92c766a67e0.png

1336635662_Screenshot2019-12-31at07_24_50.thumb.png.49bf156c9914973e31915079749ba9bc.png

 

Oh come on WiB, it's winter, a strong jet stream across the northern hemisphere is a more NORMAL pattern than a slower wavey jet stream which sends well above average temperatures at higher latitudes and much lower than normal temperatures at lower latitudes and we get told that pattern is down to climate change also! 

At the moment it looks a bit of a long way before any significant snow potential occurs, as others noted if the slightly more amplified GFS is right we may get slightly colder weather than the ECM/UKMO runs would suggest. Do bear in mind the GFS has a cold bias as it gets further forward in the output so I don't think the uppers will get as low as its suggesting sadly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS has been reluctant to give up the ghost on some colder air heading se .

And then holds the high in a better position to bring some continental air into the mix more especially for the south and se.

However the horror combo of the ECM and UKMO hardly bring much cold air into the UK before swiftly dispatching that to the east .

The GEFS still show solid support for that cold air into the north , a bit more mixed further south .

Given the timeframes involved one or more models is going to have to eat humble pie.

Putting aside the possible colder blip ! The outputs really from a snow perspective are abysmal .

The ECM ensembles for the next twelve days need to come with a health warning , only after that does it show a decent scatter from the milder grouping .

We have been here before many times but for the timebeing we seem to be stuck in a rut with a rampant PV .

Things can change but they need to get a move on if there’s to be something decent for cold and snow lovers during January .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)

GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up..  

I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario.  I wouldn’t be backing it 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
14 minutes ago, Beanz said:

GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up..  

I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario.  I wouldn’t be backing it 

The ENS have a few decent PM shots between them for mid next week, but when it’s looking so potentially wrong by day 3 it’s hardly worth thinking about anything beyond the weekend. PM shots would be about the best case scenario for now (for the north hills anyway)

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Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up..  

I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario.  I wouldn’t be backing it 

Got to agree with you there, GFS almost certainly will fall into line. The ICON is about to start rolling out, will be interesting to see where it stands, maybe some sort of midway as usual between GFS and ECM but closer to ECM/UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, snowray said:

Got to agree with you there, GFS almost certainly will fall into line. The ICON is about to start rolling out, will be interesting to see where it stands, maybe some sort of midway as usual between GFS and ECM but closer to ECM/UKMO.

ICON moving more towards the GFS solution there.

iconeu-0-120.png

 

Followed by a cold NWly.

iconeu-0-180.thumb.png.e960cf3212954056d040def84a43f52b.pngiconeu-1-180.thumb.png.8b58925452746cbb252a2b2c3c8e1dfe.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Incredible, GFS is sticking to it's guns.

gfseu-0-96.png

gfs-1-96.png

And UKMO.UE96-21.thumb.gif.ce1bb5a42980a16c44db061f0e524073.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
24 minutes ago, snowray said:

Incredible, GFS is sticking to it's guns.

gfseu-0-96.png

gfs-1-96.png

UKMO big step towards GFS too 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Also have a look at APREGE 12Z. We will see with ECMWF. This period is particularly interesting with regards to IMBY in Slovakia as we could be receiving some cold air initially and then surface cold, can be great once Atlantic fronts want to push in and create snowfall.GFS anim. attached

Lh4EGyd5rC.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

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UKMO 12z has definitely shifted position somewhat towards that of the GFS at 96 hr, but the uppers are not much to write home about.

( will be interesting to see what ECM makes of the position of the HP later this evening )

 

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GEM 12z v chilly too for the North East of the UK at +90 hr ( and has moved from its earlier position towards the GFS option )

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

A possible slight eastward shift on the GFS. I'm hoping for a good frost Saturday night it may freeze the lawn so I can cut it. GFS FI land shows spring arriving early again at the moment. Hopefully the ECM will show something different but I don't hold my hopes up.

Otherwise a happy new year to you all.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

GFS 12 following the strongly zonal METO / ECM route and dropping the continental influence from earlier.

12z ENS trending much milder again compared to 00z & 06z - now why doesn't that surprise me?

image.thumb.png.90e6433a3318163626bb38c2562803c4.pngimage.thumb.png.d629fbece55c6142facf757fccc0c17f.pngimage.thumb.png.e7c9ab91302869089fffae651e9a75e6.png

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
16 minutes ago, Purga said:

GFS 12 following the strongly zonal METO / ECM route and dropping the continental influence from earlier.

12z ENS trending much milder again compared to 00z & 06z - now why doesn't that surprise me?

image.thumb.png.90e6433a3318163626bb38c2562803c4.pngimage.thumb.png.d629fbece55c6142facf757fccc0c17f.pngimage.thumb.png.e7c9ab91302869089fffae651e9a75e6.png

But all the GFS runs hugely different in the short term , so if ECM jumps cold (like the UKMO has) this weekend then it’s UKMO/ECM following the mighty GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

So there we have it, the last full run of 2019, and of the decade, the big three, GFS, UKMO and ECM at T144, just the 18z runs to go but that's our lot from UKMO and ECM, until 2020.

gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.32b2e749e6b62d2d91dc859a89f45c49.pngUE144-21.thumb.gif.8eb18e02e0129d576f336e415be0eb29.gifECE1-144.thumb.png.9da0ecd12248a7778a1ed51660d81d2a.png

Happy New Year everyone, have a lovely evening whatever your doing, don't drink too much....on the other hand it's only once a year! Let's hope that the new year will be all change in the models and we will start to see some decent winter charts with lots of snaaawwwwwww! :drunk: 

download.jpg.a46c1fb6c70118c03d0b61a0112ce954.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

JMA looking a bit better, looking at the ECM mean a few ENS might show this too!!

D015FB5B-5908-47BE-8602-343030E27D61.gif

418C850E-561A-4F98-998C-30240AD0C17D.gif

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