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Model output discussion - into Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

18z GFS poor for Europe but look at the ,850s and 2m temps heading into the USA yet again

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Too many runs showing a NW flow now not to think it will happen but probably some watered down cold rain showers - hopefully not.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

That's s horrid ECM ,look at the size of the high pressure building from the South, throughout the run.

Complete dross,most probably verify too.

Despite what others maybe saying with regards to possible glimmers of hope emerging by day 10 I’m with Sleety on this and can only describe the 12z Ecm as hideous.Those euro heights look as if there here to stay. Unlike the 0z Ecm the 12z would seem to suggest only a minor blip in the mild settled conditions come the new year with those robust southern heights fending off the worst of any wind and rain. I feel a netweather snoozefest coming on. Here’s hoping Mother Nature will conjure up a few pleasant surprises for us come 2020. In the meantime may I wish every contributor to this most intriguing of platforms a very happy and joyous Christmas full of merriment and love.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

For those of us old enough to remember winter 1988/89 tonight's ECM is very similar, as someone said earlier it's almost like the sub tropical high pressure belt has shifted northwards, I have rarely seen such awful synoptics even in the worst winters of the 2000's.

However, nothing is set in stone and things could change quickly, for our sanity let's hope so.

Merry Christmas to everyone on Netweather.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
6 hours ago, carinthian said:

Final one from me before Santa arrives. A glimmer of hope on the latest ECM ( Re Day 10 chart )  that real cold air mass moves from Northern Canada and sinks slowly SE into the Greenland Sea and seeps so close to Northern Scotland. Tap into that and serious cold to follow with -25c 850mb uppers heading towards Iceland.  Need to sink that Bartlet High or retrogress and let the Arctic front sink.  Happy Christmas to all Net weather folk. Beer time beckons.

C

ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

 there’s always hope on the ECM how ever the hope is at Day 10 and always has been so for this and last winter. I would like to thank you for all your updates this year and hopefully you will update us in the New Year to have a good Christmas and a happy and a joyous New Year

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

There is always next year, don't give up the hope keep digging the scene, curiosity killed the cat and it Snowed in the UK, miss the winters from back in the 1970s onwards they were brutal and proper, its a coming I can smell it..... MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looks like that high will be stuck there for a long time. Nearly a euro slug.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

diabolical runs - no xmas presents

Awful , I just hope the models haven’t got a grasp of it and it changes for early next year!! 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Merry xmas.looks like Santa didn't have time to deliver a thermal nuclear device on the pv during his travels!!! Pretty dire output all tho Spain etc looks good for those who went south for there holidays.even the EC has dropped the Pacific heighths.anyway eat well,drink well and enjoy

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

ECM again keen on  heights building from the South, unbelievable how these keeps happening in the winter months mostly.

Merry green xmas

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Morning and a Happy Xmas & New Year to all.

Little to add to the previous comments, its not great!

The D16 GEFS mean continues to represent the ensembles to a high degree:

2144521104_gensnh-21-1-384(14).thumb.png.226dcac30c8c972c8b0df0f397dc9620.png

That doesn't come much worse than the above. Daily downgrades viz an euro trough so flat and zonal as the tPV circulates to our north. Sine wave pattern, so alternating dry and wet; colder or warmer, but brief snow chances for those favoured by the NW'ly flow. With the step away from the NW>SE flow scenario at least we shall get some very mild days down south (based on 0z GFS op and subject to variations).

Yesterday's ECM D10 Pacific Ridge is showing as a similar transient feature on the GFS op, sending a wedge of heights into the higher-lats and ECM does this at D8 further west, a transient ridge that send a wedge northwards and creates a high close to the Arctic, warming out the tPV, ECM -v- GFS:

121296235_ECH1-240(24).thumb.gif.4694c999cf42598d85aeacfafe68b1c5.gif65624694_gfsnh-0-240(15).thumb.png.a6f03e4580ac061f4c1ab6719d0f5265.png

A window of opportunity there, as it is apparent that the tPV is still open to persuasion with the right forcing? ATM all it does is force the tPV towards our side of the NH and really not helpful as currently modelled! So maybe mid-Jan onward's before we can interrupt this pattern?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Glosea bang on at the moment fir the winter!!high pressure to the south low pressure to the north!!

Yes, first half of winter (bare minimum).is a complete write off for the UK mate.

The 00z runs are among the worst i have seen in the Internet era ...(and there has been plenty of stiff competition over the years).

I didn't hold high hopes after Glosea picked up on the +NAO but its actually far worse than i could have ever imagined.

If anyone can offer some hope i'm all ears..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs

Nadolig Llawen and Happy Christmas to all!

Hopefully the models will get into the festive spirit soon!

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl


Merry Christmas to all, except for Uncle Barty. He can sod off ASAP.

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Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands
39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, first half of winter (bare minimum).is a complete write off for the UK mate.

The 00z runs are among the worst i have seen in the Internet era ...(and there has been plenty of stiff competition over the years).

I didn't hold high hopes after Glosea picked up on the +NAO but its actually far worse than i could have ever imagined.

If anyone can offer some hope i'm all ears..

 

December 2015 was worse!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Looking like cold northwesterlies or northwesterly sourced airflow towards mid january to me, IF the suggested evolution continues and pressure drops across the uk further. Thats one heck of a vortex up north, driving very cold air into the north Atlantic mix.



 

814day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Happy Christmas to all my weather enthusiasts, hope you all have a great day and you just never no what the models will have in store in a few days, let’s face it, it can’t be much worse can it. 
One things for sure there’s some really cold air setting up to the north west so if we can happen to tap into a nw airstream in the next couple of weeks it could well get quite exciting.

Edited by markw2680
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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
1 hour ago, shaky said:

Glosea bang on at the moment fir the winter!!high pressure to the south low pressure to the north!!

It's a shame Glosea wasn't as accurate last winter when it repeatedly predicted Northen Blocking!

Meanwhile I woke up this morning to find Uncle Barty sat in my chair, drinking my beer and eating mince pies!!

He informs me he might be staying a while..........

Andy

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