Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Chesil View]

Happy Christmas to all my fellow cold and snow chasers.

 I'm with Catacol on this one second half Jan for anything worthwhile. 

My old Gran used to say southern England rarely see's real winter weather  before 20th Jan and most years she's not far off. I would probably say a week earlier from my experience 

[sundog]

Well I haven't had a decent cold spell during the second half of Jan imby since the 80s. 

[johnholmes]

Whatever the weather does or the models show,

A Happy Christmas to everyone

 

[Ali1977]

Jet stream at day 9 very different , just shows the models are still struggling. Enjoy crimbo everyone, hopefully Santa brings a PV hammer!! 

 

Not sure that’s needed early next year, crazy storm.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

Cracking storm on the 12z - and a blizzard in the true sense of the word on high ground in N England and particularly the Scottish highlands.

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cracking storm on the 12z - and a blizzard in the true sense of the word on high ground in N England and particularly the Scottish highlands.

Yup nice FI chart sadly will be gone next run no doubt. Pity it isn't five days away something to get your teeth into.

[Methuselah]

A bit of a humdinger, perhaps?

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yup nice FI chart sadly will be gone next run no doubt. Pity it isn't five days away something to get your teeth into.

You would actually like something like this to verify?

[bobbydog]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

You would actually like something like this to verify?

It would be a memorable storm for all the wrong reasons....

[Mike Poole]

It's not yet set in stone folks, the GEM at T216 is the exception...

It is not yet guaranteed that the purple black vortex thing ends up over Greenland...although the balance of probability is in favour of that eventuality.  We will see...

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

You would actually like something like this to verify?

The french alps gets a 4 day blizzard from then onwards, I’d get my snow fix, but I’d get no skiing with that storm!! . It’ll be gone next run 

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

It would be a memorable storm for all the wrong reasons....

Indeed. The Penlee Lifeboat memorial at Mousehole illustrates this point, from another memorable storm, that I remember well

[Anthony Burden]

Interesting New year coming up weather wise.Met update dryer and colder start to New Year sounds

like a different wind direction from high pressure.make of it as you will but certainly positive for cold

lovers.

[ICE COLD]

Well if it can’t be freezing cold and hammering with snow I’d take this monster storm . Better than the dross we have now . (Not that it will verify) 

Edited December 24, 2019 by ICE COLD

[MR EXTREMES]

although gem not without interest and to be honest looking at the big 3 models we are pretty close to an easterly but just not enough dig from the lower heights into the med.

but its the gem so far that grabs some attention till the ecm anyway.

bit colder into eastern europe and including a cold blast for most of us.

i mean touch of winter lol.

merry christmas everyone.

 

[bluearmy]

Ec op throws out a surprise n pacific ridge day 10 - that’s would shake up the nwp if it became a theme ....

[swfc]

Not unexpected but EC looks poor this evening and looks to confirm what folk already knew.so drink and enjoy,merry Xmas

Edited December 24, 2019 by swfc

[SLEETY]

That's s horrid ECM ,look at the size of the high pressure building from the South, throughout the run.

Complete dross,most probably verify too.

[carinthian]

Final one from me before Santa arrives. A glimmer of hope on the latest ECM ( Re Day 10 chart )  that real cold air mass moves from Northern Canada and sinks slowly SE into the Greenland Sea and seeps so close to Northern Scotland. Tap into that and serious cold to follow with -25c 850mb uppers heading towards Iceland.  Need to sink that Bartlet High or retrogress and let the Arctic front sink.  Happy Christmas to all Net weather folk. Beer time beckons.

C

[sundog]

Happy Christmas to all whatever the weather. 

[Ben Lewis]

3 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Well if it can’t be freezing cold and hammering with snow I’d take this monster storm . Better than the dross we have now . (Not that it will verify) 

Thankfully that chart is Days away. 
 

More cold rain on soaking ground with Northern Hill snow. Riveting. 
Same dross. 

[ICE COLD]

36 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Thankfully that chart is Days away. 
 

More cold rain on soaking ground with Northern Hill snow. Riveting. 
Same dross. 

I know it’s days away that’s why I put in brackets it won’t verify . Yes cold rain but  with severe gales so that’s not the same dross . We’ve had hardly any wind storms this year . Plus I like potent storms , obviously wish it was snow but hay ho are take a beast of a storm . Some people like heat some people like cold and I like storms . 

Edited December 24, 2019 by ICE COLD

[Mike Poole]

Quick scan through the 12z ensembles and, unfortunately from a cold perspective, there is nothing there at all.  The best and only run for real cold is the GEM operational. Which won't happen!  

On that less than positive note, may I wish every Netweather member, coldie, mildie (if that is a thing?), sceptic, and those who post thoughout summer too, a very happy Christmas and a SSW new year!  

Regards

Mike

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

You would actually like something like this to verify?

Hmmmm - maybe - I'm back to work that day.

[Duane S.]

I wasn’t going to look at the GEM but did after seeing some comments. To be honest I was expecting something (as relatively good as it is) a little more impressive than that. It looks well within the envelope of possibilities (clearly on the colder side of).

Chart of the day though has to be the ECM D10. A nice bit of Pacific forcing. Let the vortex know it’s not going to have it all its own way. One to keep tabs on... ?