Model output discussion - into Christmas

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Could you get a stronger vortex than that?!

Lol quite  but just for fun  this chart would see snow  even from the warm Atlantic 

[Newberryone]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Lol quite  but just for fun  this chart would see snow  even from the warm Atlantic 

I’d take it any day over what’s on offer over the coming week or more. A frustrating fact is that most of Nov held more wintry promise than where we are right now. At least we had a jet stream running well south for weeks on end.

[Allseasons-Si]

We need to keep an eye on the ens for the next few days because i have seen a gradual trend to cooler temps this evening for the 30th-31st>

this evenings v 4 days ago

i presume this short but sharp drop in ens are from a PM source of air and could get cooler,watch this space.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Timmytour]

5 hours ago, Purga said:

Yes and not only the brutal cold but they're forecast to get around 500cm (16 feet!) of snow in the southern Alaskan mountains in early 2020!!

Talk about green with envy.....

I smile every time I hear people say with self-imposed wisdom "it's too cold for snow!"

[tinybill]

morning  all i think i have a few days off model  watching ex the gfs i think we  might need an a boat if after  xmas the charts look horrible  lets hope they jump back to  at the moment   we need one of these 

MERRY  XMAS

[Ali1977]

A decent day 9/10, METO mentions northerlies and wintery showers so this type scenario looks like a good bet. 

[Chesil View]

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

No comfort in the latest ec46 .......

That'll be the same EC 46 that promised a change cold and Northern blocking throughout last winter eh Blue

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

That'll be the same EC 46 that promised a change cold and Northern blocking throughout last winter eh Blue

Difference is...when it shows the pattern as flat as a pancake it’s more likely to be right. I dont disbelieve it at all. Literally every measure (strong AO, NAO, vortex) is heading the wrong way into the new year. There won’t be any gold at the end of the rainbow for a good while.

Edited December 24, 2019 by mb018538

[IDO]

Subtle changes with the D16 mean, which strongly represents the GEFS, and because the synoptic is known to be longer term than cold spells, quite relevant to the likely path.

Today's and yesterdays:

So we see the sharpening of the vortex to the NW compared with yesterday showing it is nearly regrouped back home. The flat Russian and Pacific highs indicate a very flat NH profile. The upper temps mean suggests at best average and more likely above.

The finer detail; Boxing Day remains a washout for many with maybe a trailing front on Friday for the south. Then mostly dry till the New Year when the HP gets overrun by the advancing tPV to our N/NW. The 0z run flatter, like the mean, so not the NW>SE sliding into a sc/euro trough. The zonal or euro trough still the main options for early-mid Jan, possibly longer.

Normal UK winter mix TBH.

[Purga]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

We need to keep an eye on the ens for the next few days because i have seen a gradual trend to cooler temps this evening for the 30th-31st>

this evenings v 4 days ago

i presume this short but sharp drop in ens are from a PM source of air and could get cooler,watch this space.

Yes and they're going back up again this morning - wet and mild for the foreseeable in a very stable pattern.

Still at least there should be some nice wintry weather in Greece as usual

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, Purga said:

Yes and they're going back up again this morning - wet and mild for the foreseeable in a very stable pattern.

Still at least there should be some nice wintry weather in Greece as usual

no doubt that this years vortex has clearly throwing a 2014 type winter at us.

its certainly not looking great at all.

[MR EXTREMES]

anyway ive seen enough teleconnection and medium term forecast to convince me that the first half of this winter is yet another dud for the coldies.

merry christmas everyone have a nice time.

im even questioning the low solar activity 09/10 has to been a fluke for our tiny island.

best chart is the one cold snap on ecm.

at the end then zonal i suspect.

 

[E17boy]

Morning all

All doom and gloom at the moment but just some crumbs of comfort. Just seen the Weather Outlook forcast for January and the reckon there is going to be a cell of high pressure that will drift north come mid Jan possibly then turning our winds to the NE or E and with that some wintry weather all the way till the end of Jan. I have seen their past monthly forecasts and they have been pretty good. Whether this will pan out as they say no one knows but only the one glimmer of light I can see today. 

With this just like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas . It's been a real pleasure reading the posts and seeing all the regulars. Thanks to the more knowledgable who have shared their thoughts it has been very helpful. Also thanks to the forum for being here where would we go without you and a big thanks to the seniors in command who have taken a great deal of time and effort to run this place.

Our rollercoaster search will always go on no matter how many ups and downs there are. I wish everyone the best of health and happiness for 2020. Let's hope it will be a new era of winters to remember.

thanks once again to all you. Wonderful peeps.

all the best

Regards

[E17boy]

Sorry peeps opps

it was Weather Online regards monthly outlook not the Weather outlook as mentioned on previous post.

regards

 

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Morning all

All doom and gloom at the moment but just some crumbs of comfort. Just seen the Weather Outlook forcast for January and the reckon there is going to be a cell of high pressure that will drift north come mid Jan possibly then turning our winds to the NE or E and with that some wintry weather all the way till the end of Jan. I have seen their past monthly forecasts and they have been pretty good. Whether this will pan out as they say no one knows but only the one glimmer of light I can see today. 

With this just like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas . It's been a real pleasure reading the posts and seeing all the regulars. Thanks to the more knowledgable who have shared their thoughts it has been very helpful. Also thanks to the forum for being here where would we go without you and a big thanks to the seniors in command who have taken a great deal of time and effort to run this place.

Our rollercoaster search will always go on no matter how many ups and downs there are. I wish everyone the best of health and happiness for 2020. Let's hope it will be a new era of winters to remember.

thanks once again to all you. Wonderful peeps.

all the best

Regards

This will be weather online thinking a SSW is possible I’d imagine!! 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

That'll be the same EC 46 that promised a change cold and Northern blocking throughout last winter eh Blue

Well it didn’t really to any great extent ..... weak positives were touted as being giant blocks in desperation !   It called the low euro anomoly (which didn’t last too long) from quite a way out ........

anyway, the extended eps trending the wrong way as euro heights hang on and we lose any desire for low anoms to our south or southeast .... looks much flatter now than a day or two. Ties in better with the gefs now. 

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it didn’t really to any great extent ..... weak positives were touted as being giant blocks in desperation !   It called the low euro anomoly (which didn’t last too long) from quite a way out ........

anyway, the extended eps trending the wrong way as euro heights hang on and we lose any desire for low anoms to our south or southeast .... looks much flatter now than a day or two. Ties in better with the gefs now. 

Bleak  news......METO have updated their winter forecast and Glosea obviously offers zero hope as they are going for wetter and milder right through to March ..

The hunt for cold goes on, but its becoming increasingly forlorn,i have been on these forums for 15 years or more and once this +NAO pattern entrenches......

[Methuselah]

Good morning folks...And a very merry Xmas to y'all!

Well then, there is one small mercy: if the MetO is right, and we do indeed have to endure a +NAO, from here to eternity, there is a better-than-average chance of stonking Spring and Summer. Clutches straw!

    

Tis nae that the positives have all flown away; it's merely they have been postponed a bit. Clutches straw!

[Jeremy Shockey]

Maybe we get a short cold blast from the NNW early in the New Year according to the ECM 0Z ?

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

Maybe we get a short cold blast from the NNW early in the New Year according to the ECM 0Z ?

Yes, topplers are possible into the NY..

 

[Anthony Burden]

Happy Christmas to all the weather at present looks mild for the rest of the month but the New Year

could hold something very different.John Hammond on his weather site mentions that he does not

buy into the roaring west south westerly for January let alone the rest of the winter.look north for pressure 

rise I believe is his take on January let’s hope he is bang on.

[syed2878]

morning folks well it certainly is a bleak outlook on the models who knows where the cold is going to come from last few days models have been really poor to say the least. anyway I would like to wish every member and the staff at t with her a happy Christmas and a happy New Year many members on here at netweatherhave had difficult times this year I hope 2020 is going to be a good year for all of you and may it bring you happiness and peace

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Happy Christmas to all the weather at present looks mild for the rest of the month but the New Year

could hold something very different.John Hammond on his weather site mentions that he does not

buy into the roaring west south westerly for January let alone the rest of the winter.look north for pressure 

rise I believe is his take on January let’s hope he is bang on.

More likely much later in Jan i would suggest, This SSW looks like it will fizzle out again so awaiting the next round of tropical forcing, wonder what @Catacol thinks.

Edited December 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

Were this to verify, I wonder what the absolute maximum would be, and where...17C in NE Wales?

    

Edited December 24, 2019 by General Cluster

[Don]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Bleak  news......METO have updated their winter forecast and Glosea obviously offers zero hope as they are going for wetter and milder right through to March ..

The hunt for cold goes on, but its becoming increasingly forlorn,i have been on these forums for 15 years or more and once this +NAO pattern entrenches......

Not really a surprise sadly.  Completely agree reference once the +NAO sets on.