Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Quite a decent day 10 chart  

I’d take that for the following week ⛷, hopefully a similar or better mean with the jet heading back south 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Prefer that to what is showing in FI on GFS! to me that EC chart looks decent, 13 degrees dryish?

where as GFS looks like 5 degrees and wet?

 

 

That’s my point mate,13 degrees in winter.  I class that as horrible output even if it’s dry or wet . I just want it to feel like winter would rather cold and wet TBF . I just want a big dumping of snow and a good 5-7 days of freezing weather . 

[carinthian]

Wondering where all the cold is. Well presently locked away to the North of Alaska with current lowest dam line of 474. The Alaska cold wave forecast to record 465 dam  or 4630 m heights at 500mb , that's about as extreme as it ever gets. At the same time most of Northern America and Europe  remain strangely mild. Weird that !

C

[Jordan S]

A band of rain pushing eastnortheast across the country tonight this mostly pretty light but becoming a little more organised as it heads East with some heavier bursts for central and Eastern areas later in the night but amounts of rain tending to be small for most with 1-3mm although locally 5-10mm small chance of a little snow on the highest ground of Northern England but mostly rain. Drier for Scotland with just a few showers these wintry on high ground, turning drier for southwest England and Northern Ireland later tonight fairly mild for southern parts but colder further north with a frost for central and northern Scotland in particular. 

Arpege..

Tomorrow the frontal rain moves away into the north sea with some brighter weather developing mild in the south with temperatures as high as 9-11c colder further north with low to mid single figures for northern England, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland although perhaps close to freezing for parts of northern Scotland for the whole day. 

During tomorrow morning into the afternoon showers will develop for Wales, central, southern and southwestern england these could be very heavy in one or two spots with parts of Wales likely to see 15-25mm of rain where showers persist for any length of time with one or two thunderstorms possible. Elsewhere mostly dry with just the odd shower with sunny spells.  It will become windy for most of England and Wales later tonight into much of tomorrow. 

Arome..

Looking at boxing day more rain from a warm front and strong winds pushing into England and Wales in particular with perhaps some snow for a time for northern parts of England and Scotland before turning back to rain as milder air moves in.. The cold front from this low could become very slow moving and still be heavy for southern counties of England and Wales during boxing day night leading to another 10-20mm if this happens although it may clear away relatively quick but its more rain on saturated/flooded ground so needs watching. 

Gfs..

After boxing day high pressure likely to become more dominant in particular for central and southern parts of the UK from 27th-1st January atleast with most rain kept towards northwest Scotland. Thereafter the Gfs shows a gradual transition back to wetter and windier weather after New years day but too far out for too much confidence on that but it will likely remain mild out to day 10.

Gfs..

Ecmwf..

Gem..

Hope you all have a good Christmas. 

Edited December 23, 2019 by jordan smith

[Duane S.]

I’m probably just overly happy having seen over half metre fall over the weekend at just 1150M here in the NW Alps. Took my chances early this year and booked a week at Xmas at a fairly low altitude. Based on a combination of expected ENSO and solar influences, I banked on a southerly jet and no stagnant Euro high. Risky but it paid off. ️ 

My point being, I am still looking at the charts and I do think that with this southerly jet and some of the wave activity we’ve had/are having, we’ve actually been pretty unlucky. I don’t buy this sudden moribund shift to everything is doom and gloom as far as the eye can see. I don’t see a tightly wound up vortex, a strong one yes, but not one that is impervious. The propensity to there being a southerly jet remains, there will be blips in that, but I suspect 2nd week in January could get interesting for parts of NW Europe. Hopefully the U.K. as well.

Anyway, here’s an interesting take from one of the GEFS members tonight, quite possibly one of the stranger looking evolutions I’ve seen, but weirdly sort of in line with my thoughts...

 

 

[swfc]

So just my opinion so here goes.i think mike's ridge has gone AWOL.barring boxing day it's looks fairly dry which is a huge bonus.heading towards the new year the PV looks to fire up to the north west.+Nao looks imminent with the subsequent wet and windy weather.hopefully it didn't last long and the ground can dry out.

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Positives.....

It won't be mild,

southerly tracking jet,

No European blocking.

 

*awaits the 'negatives' posts....

Does there have to be any?....

I’ll give you one..... it’s 384 hours away

[bluearmy]

41 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I’m probably just overly happy having seen over half metre fall over the weekend at just 1150M here in the NW Alps. Took my chances early this year and booked a week at Xmas at a fairly low altitude. Based on a combination of expected ENSO and solar influences, I banked on a southerly jet and no stagnant Euro high. Risky but it paid off. ️ 

My point being, I am still looking at the charts and I do think that with this southerly jet and some of the wave activity we’ve had/are having, we’ve actually been pretty unlucky. I don’t buy this sudden moribund shift to everything is doom and gloom as far as the eye can see. I don’t see a tightly wound up vortex, a strong one yes, but not one that is impervious. The propensity to there being a southerly jet remains, there will be blips in that, but I suspect 2nd week in January could get interesting for parts of NW Europe. Hopefully the U.K. as well.

Anyway, here’s an interesting take from one of the GEFS members tonight, quite possibly one of the stranger looking evolutions I’ve seen, but weirdly sort of in line with my thoughts...

 

 

That evolution at the back end of week 2 remains entirely plausible .....

[blizzard81]

Looks like the ecm control jumps to the scandi high at day 5.

[Purga]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Wondering where all the cold is. Well presently locked away to the North of Alaska with current lowest dam line of 474. The Alaska cold wave forecast to record 465 dam  or 4630 m heights at 500mb , that's about as extreme as it ever gets. At the same time most of Northern America and Europe  remain strangely mild. Weird that !

C

Yes and not only the brutal cold but they're forecast to get around 500cm (16 feet!) of snow in the southern Alaskan mountains in early 2020!!

Talk about green with envy.....

[Allseasons-Si]

11 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Deary me! I've heard of post Christmas blues but I think there is an outbreak of pre Christmas blues on here. As long as there is a meaningful cold batch approx from 28th Dec onwards on the debilt ens, I won't give up hope. Yes, it's still there. 

And still there this evening,there does seem to be a lot of scatter just after the 27th(that's only 4-5 days away),crazy!

temps,dew points and wind direction

i will give it until tomorrow to see how this develops or not

there isn't that much to talk about at the moment in regards to cold so i am signing out for a few days to do some late Chrimbo shopping tomorrow so...

i wish everyone a merry Chrismas.    

                                                                               

Edited December 23, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And still there this evening,there does seem to be a lot of scatter just after the 27th(that's only 4-5 days away),crazy!

temps,dew points and wind direction

i will give it until tomorrow to see how this develops or not

there isn't that much to talk about at the moment in regards to cold so i am signing out for a few days to do some late Chrimbo shopping tomorrow so...

i wish everyone a merry Chrismas.    

                                                                               

I'm glad I'm not the only one who is seeing this. Thought I had gone loopy . Good luck with the last minute shopping and a very merry Christmas to you too

[swfc]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That evolution at the back end of week 2 remains entirely plausible .....

 

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That evolution at the back end of week 2 remains entirely plausible .....

Based on what exactlyBA. Given the current fluidity in the models and non commitment by the meto etc and signals.just a question tia

[BlueHedgehog074]

A little look at the temperatures for the next few days from the GFS 12Z, using both the maximum and minimum temperture charts, and as Jordan mentioned in an ealier post, generally chillier the further North in the UK you go and milder further South. A chance for the temperatures to get into the low double digits at times, particularly across the far South. In sunny spells (and if it's the kind of weather you enjoy), it could feel quite pleasant.

Christmas Day, though, does looks to be a fairly cool day for all of the UK overall (3rd chart below), with a very chilly night across Northern UK. Could help give the UK a bit of a wintry and Christmassy feeling. Does look cold enough for some frost at times, most especially over the Northern UK parts. And apart from Friday across Southern UK, nights overall look to be chilly.

Further ahead, and as covered by some others, it looks possible that the ridges of High Pressure that build over and to the East of the UK in the next few days, could very well collapse with Low Pressure systems in the Atlantic looking eager to spill over the top. A more mobile, Westerly, flow then breaking back through over the UK. When looking at the operational models, this seems like the most likely scenario for now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Tonight's NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb chart above, showing a smilar sort of outcome with an upper flow from the West over the UK. Though it looks possible that the upper High Pressure could be close enough to the South-West of the UK to allow some flatt(ish) ridging to influence the UK at times. So probably no real washout conditions, especially across Southern UK.

It's certainly not impossible some colder, wintrier charts could turn up as the New Year rolls in. Even though a more, mobile, Westerly Atlantic pattern could break through (and even then it may only influence the North of the UK), its very possible the pattern could trend towards a more colder, zonal, outlook eventually with a chance of High Pressure getting pushed out West or South-West. But a bit too far away for this to be certain.

There may also be a slight chance that the likely Eastern UK High Pressure could gain enough latitude towards this weekend allowing Low Pressure from the West in the Atlantic to undercut and prop the High further North. But... I do think this would be a big stretch considering the models show the Low Pressure to the West of the European ridging this weekend to be a little bit too positively tilted and dominant to let the High Pressure gain enough latitude.

I think some of you will definitely be wanting the blue and purple thing to get a right ol' beating to that area to the North-West of us!

(Although, to be fair, it's not causing too much trouble over that place at the moment).

While it's not the snow and deep cold conditions some fancy, the next few nights will be chilly. Especially again, over Northern UK, maybe with a bit of falling white stuff over high ground areas for some on Boxing Day. With the High Pressure building over to the East and South-East of the UK, the stomach of the weather should settle down a bit. Essentially some drier conditions. More so towards South-Eastern UK areas with a break from some of the wind and rain. North-Western areas of the UK, however, generally more exposed to some cloudier, wet weather at times as the models show pressure to be lower over those parts at times. (I appreciate even those areas deserve a break from the sneaky rain).

Since it's not too far away now, would like to wish everyone in the land of Netweather...

I hope it's a great one May there be lots of surprises for the various weather fans of 2020!

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like the ecm control jumps to the scandi high at day 5.

Ec control similar to the op 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

 

Based on what exactlyBA. Given the current fluidity in the models and non commitment by the meto etc and signals.just a question tia

Recent Extended ens show a trough diving close to our east to be a reasonable evolution and possibly backed far enough west to cover the U.K. 

[bluearmy]

No comfort in the latest ec46 .......

[shaky]

Ah well one can only hope we wake up to miracle charts tomorrow!!mild and dry sums up the weather over the next 10 days!!zzzzzzzzzz!!!!!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No comfort in the latest ec46 .......

I would suggest 2nd week of Jan at the absolute earliest for even a hope of cold Blue.

The pattern looks both repulsive and entrenched.

Of course there is always the prospect of some kind of short notice flip, but lets face it, that only happens when the boot is on the other foot so to speak.

 

 

[Don]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No comfort in the latest ec46 .......

Which takes us into February!  Signs need to change soon for hope of a back loaded winter......

[bluearmy]

For @Steve Murr

[Jeremy Shockey]

a glimmer of hope for early Jan from the GFS18z perhaps

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

a glimmer of hope for early Jan from the GFS18z perhaps

Cool rain at that timescale ...... away from the hilltops ....

[weirpig]

I've seen weaker vortex 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I've seen weaker vortex 

Could you get a stronger vortex than that?!