Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could be looking at mid teens in the favoured Foehn Effect spots later this week. An early taste of spring for some especially if you got some sunshine.

 

Not according to this, max temps for this day.

[blizzard81]

3 hours ago, Timbo said:

Yes looks promising, the shortwave around Iceland is missing allowing the high to amplify more than other models, look a the deep cold trying to move in from the NE, what a turn around this would be if it amplifies more and pulls in a frigid North Easter, we have seen models flip at the last minute before , why not this time 

We can hope Some on here have implied that I have gone hyper optimistic with my thoughts but like you say, flips can happen very suddenly in our favour. Not often but it can happen. The ridging into Scandi that I have been banging on about has got stronger during the last 24 hours modelling. 

[Ali1977]

FI, but imagine this from the NW - crazy blizzards for many !!

[Jason M]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

FI, but imagine this from the NW - crazy blizzards for many !!

Blizzards of rain away from high ground sadly. 850 values of around -4c on a PM flow won't deliver much for most. This type of chart can be so misleading Pennines might do OK though under this. 

[Lampostwatcher]

Cold rain

[SLEETY]

24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could be looking at mid teens in the favoured Foehn Effect spots later this week. An early taste of spring for some especially if you got some sunshine.

 

and i bet any money spring will feature plenty of northern blocking,just the way it is in the u.k. climate now,lol

[Don]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

and i bet any money spring will feature plenty of northern blocking,just the way it is in the u.k. climate now,lol

If it means getting cold/snow in spring, I'll take that!

[Purga]

25 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Cold rain

Sleet and snow for most with decent blizzard like conditions on the Welsh mountains and Scottish Uplands.

Trouble is most of it would rapidly melt

Typical UK 'powder-puff' winter stuff

It won't verify anyway.....

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Not according to this, max temps for this day.

The models will struggle to show the Foehn Effect. It's happened many times before.

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The models will struggle to show the Foehn Effect. It's happened many times before.

Yes, that's what I was thinking.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Forecast exit was Norfolk 3 days ago - Still happy with that assessment !

Ecm close Steve although it pretty well loses definition on an upper trough at T78

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

We can hope Some on here have implied that I have gone hyper optimistic with my thoughts but like you say, flips can happen very suddenly in our favour. Not often but it can happen. The ridging into Scandi that I have been banging on about has got stronger during the last 24 hours modelling. 

Just to illustrate my point. Today's ecm day 4 compared to yesterday's day 5. Scandi high is there at day 4.

[Cleeve Hill]

All - Its really not a bad start to Winter. European Alps are looking good for the Xmas period and we dont say that v often. The southerly tracking jet has done the business of the ski industry. 

Still lots to play for

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

All - Its really not a bad start to Winter. European Alps are looking good for the Xmas period and we dont say that v often. The southerly tracking jet has done the business of the ski industry. 

Still lots to play for

The higher resorts yes, lower ones struggle . Could be a similar story early Jan if the GFS mean rings true. Hoping for a NW/SE flow on day 10 of the ECM, looks like the only chance of cold in the foreseeable!! 

[blizzard81]

Fridays ecm for this coming Saturday compared to today's chart for the same day. 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Fridays ecm for this coming Saturday compared to today's chart for the same day. 

And I guess that’s why day 10 charts are often so wrong!! 

[bobbydog]

Positives.....

It won't be mild,

southerly tracking jet,

No European blocking.

 

*awaits the 'negatives' posts....

Does there have to be any?....

[carinthian]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The higher resorts yes, lower ones struggle . Could be a similar story early Jan if the GFS mean rings true. Hoping for a NW/SE flow on day 10 of the ECM, looks like the only chance of cold in the foreseeable!! 

We are a higher resort at 1650m and the snow conditions are heavy. Freezing level just below 200om . Way to mild.

C

[ICE COLD]

I’m seriously sick of the we have to deal with in winter . +10 850s no thanks ecm . Have a good Christmas everyone , taking a week off from the horrible model output .

[bradymk]

Saw this from Matt Hugo on Twitter. Although not much change at all in 850’s, there is a lot more spread for T2 temp’s from 12z GEFS for the end of this week.

comparing the 12z to 00z below, they’re a lot more colder members at the surface on the 12z suite suggesting perhaps more continental influence and the high getting that bit further north.

However perhaps just a rogue suite.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

Positives.....

It won't be mild,

southerly tracking jet,

No European blocking.

 

*awaits the 'negatives' posts....

Does there have to be any?....

Sorry bobby dog I’ve just posted a negative post , I usually stay positive but just sick of this horrible output .

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Sorry bobby dog I’ve just posted a negative post , I usually stay positive but just sick of this horrible output .

I know. You can't polish a turd

But you can put glitter on it... 

[Jordan S]

51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The models will struggle to show the Foehn Effect. It's happened many times before.

Also the Gfs tends to underestimate maximum temperatures by 1 or 2c 

Edited December 23, 2019 by jordan smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’m seriously sick of the we have to deal with in winter . +10 850s no thanks ecm . Have a good Christmas everyone , taking a week off from the horrible model output .

Prefer that to what is showing in FI on GFS! to me that EC chart looks decent, 13 degrees dryish?

where as GFS looks like 5 degrees and wet?

 

 

[blizzard81]

26 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And I guess that’s why day 10 charts are often so wrong!! 

Quite a decent day 10 chart