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Model output discussion - into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could be looking at mid teens in the favoured Foehn Effect spots later this week. An early taste of spring for some especially if you got some sunshine.

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.7e5f41938844c40730a529e99488d151.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.6362485a823a73fc11b01aa81f3d04aa.png

 

Not according to this, max temps for this day.

F115CA84-CF72-46E9-B628-4F1457DA23BE.gif

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
3 hours ago, Timbo said:

Yes looks promising, the shortwave around Iceland is missing allowing the high to amplify more than other models, look a the deep cold trying to move in from the NE, what a turn around this would be if it amplifies more and pulls in a frigid North Easter, we have seen models flip at the last minute before , why not this time 

We can hope Some on here have implied that I have gone hyper optimistic with my thoughts but like you say, flips can happen very suddenly in our favour. Not often but it can happen. The ridging into Scandi that I have been banging on about has got stronger during the last 24 hours modelling. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

FI, but imagine this from the NW - crazy blizzards for many !!

A0BD7D62-CFE9-4422-87BB-1A49215E0878.png

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

FI, but imagine this from the NW - crazy blizzards for many !!

A0BD7D62-CFE9-4422-87BB-1A49215E0878.png

Blizzards of rain away from high ground sadly. 850 values of around -4c on a PM flow won't deliver much for most. This type of chart can be so misleading Pennines might do OK though under this. 

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could be looking at mid teens in the favoured Foehn Effect spots later this week. An early taste of spring for some especially if you got some sunshine.

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.7e5f41938844c40730a529e99488d151.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.6362485a823a73fc11b01aa81f3d04aa.png

 

and i bet any money spring will feature plenty of northern blocking,just the way it is in the u.k. climate now,lol

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

and i bet any money spring will feature plenty of northern blocking,just the way it is in the u.k. climate now,lol

If it means getting cold/snow in spring, I'll take that!

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
25 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Cold rain

Sleet and snow for most with decent blizzard like conditions on the Welsh mountains and Scottish Uplands.

image.thumb.png.68b7922f7bf12304bc3281d54ec74b35.png

Trouble is most of it would rapidly melt

image.thumb.png.c1f0e517b88a43b2abd2f25befeba8a0.png

Typical UK 'powder-puff' winter stuff

It won't verify anyway.....

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Not according to this, max temps for this day.

F115CA84-CF72-46E9-B628-4F1457DA23BE.gif

The models will struggle to show the Foehn Effect. It's happened many times before.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The models will struggle to show the Foehn Effect. It's happened many times before.

Yes, that's what I was thinking.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

We can hope Some on here have implied that I have gone hyper optimistic with my thoughts but like you say, flips can happen very suddenly in our favour. Not often but it can happen. The ridging into Scandi that I have been banging on about has got stronger during the last 24 hours modelling. 

Just to illustrate my point. Today's ecm day 4 compared to yesterday's day 5. Scandi high is there at day 4.

Screenshot_20191223-181635.png

Screenshot_20191223-181601.png

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Cleeve Hill Aficionado

Cleeve Hill

Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
Posted

All - Its really not a bad start to Winter. European Alps are looking good for the Xmas period and we dont say that v often. The southerly tracking jet has done the business of the ski industry. 

Still lots to play for

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

All - Its really not a bad start to Winter. European Alps are looking good for the Xmas period and we dont say that v often. The southerly tracking jet has done the business of the ski industry. 

Still lots to play for

The higher resorts yes, lower ones struggle . Could be a similar story early Jan if the GFS mean rings true. Hoping for a NW/SE flow on day 10 of the ECM, looks like the only chance of cold in the foreseeable!! 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Fridays ecm for this coming Saturday compared to today's chart for the same day. 

Screenshot_20191223-182652.png

Screenshot_20191223-182834.png

And I guess that’s why day 10 charts are often so wrong!! 

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Positives.....

gfsnh-0-384-11.thumb.png.0bd6202c2e26c82fa984a1a07cbcffbe.png

It won't be mild,

southerly tracking jet,

No European blocking.

 

*awaits the 'negatives' posts....

Does there have to be any?....

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The higher resorts yes, lower ones struggle . Could be a similar story early Jan if the GFS mean rings true. Hoping for a NW/SE flow on day 10 of the ECM, looks like the only chance of cold in the foreseeable!! 

We are a higher resort at 1650m and the snow conditions are heavy. Freezing level just below 200om . Way to mild.

C

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

I’m seriously sick of the we have to deal with in winter . +10 850s no thanks ecm . Have a good Christmas everyone , taking a week off from the horrible model output .

F1BF5726-902A-4DEC-9D02-086193B9AA7E.png

F86FC0CE-09A5-4E81-B422-8F28223197E4.png

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

Saw this from Matt Hugo on Twitter. Although not much change at all in 850’s, there is a lot more spread for T2 temp’s from 12z GEFS for the end of this week.

comparing the 12z to 00z below, they’re a lot more colder members at the surface on the 12z suite suggesting perhaps more continental influence and the high getting that bit further north.

However perhaps just a rogue suite.

11382AF2-D5CC-4662-B404-E70C617545A2.gif

DBB2430B-2138-43E2-A3C6-5AD8B55B3ED9.gif

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

Positives.....

gfsnh-0-384-11.thumb.png.0bd6202c2e26c82fa984a1a07cbcffbe.png

It won't be mild,

southerly tracking jet,

No European blocking.

 

*awaits the 'negatives' posts....

Does there have to be any?....

Sorry bobby dog I’ve just posted a negative post , I usually stay positive but just sick of this horrible output . ☹️

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Sorry bobby dog I’ve just posted a negative post , I usually stay positive but just sick of this horrible output . ☹️

I know. You can't polish a turd

But you can put glitter on it... 

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Jordan S Experienced

Jordan S

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The models will struggle to show the Foehn Effect. It's happened many times before.

Also the Gfs tends to underestimate maximum temperatures by 1 or 2c 

Edited by jordan smith
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’m seriously sick of the we have to deal with in winter . +10 850s no thanks ecm . Have a good Christmas everyone , taking a week off from the horrible model output .

F1BF5726-902A-4DEC-9D02-086193B9AA7E.png

F86FC0CE-09A5-4E81-B422-8F28223197E4.png

Prefer that to what is showing in FI on GFS! to me that EC chart looks decent, 13 degrees dryish?

where as GFS looks like 5 degrees and wet?

gfs-0-348.png?12gfs-0-372.png?12

 

 

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