Model output discussion - into Christmas

[IDO]

Boxing Day nasty-low crossing on GFS 06z:

Great for the sporting calendar!

A couple of days respite follows, then it is similar to the ECM at D8, rather than the 0z GFS take:

It is rare at this range for such clarity so usually we can conclude the pattern is relatively stable and high-confidence. So ATM mini-ridge and trough sine-wave zonal looking a good bet as we head into the New Year. That may give high-ground up North some interest with that NW'ly cooler flow when the pattern intermittently dictates that. In-between we will at least see drier interludes in this setup.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Also, look at the progression from day 5 to day 6 on the ukmo. Looks semi-promising to me. 

Lets face it, any meaningful cold over the next 10 day's is a dud... Time to look towards January for something better.. If that fails, then there is still February and March! Luckily I've got very thick skin, must admit though, I'm shedding a few layers playing the waiting game. Great charts blizzard81.... I really like the look of that 50% of marks and Spencers gifts... At least that's something..

[IDO]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Also, look at the progression from day 5 to day 6 on the ukmo. Looks semi-promising to me. 

All the models handling that low differently and keep switching between the possible scenarios. ECM keeps it as a satellite to the core low, UKMO splits it NE and SE, and GFS runs it through the centre of the UK. What we know is that either way the long-wave pattern stays resolute to the last 4-days modelling; ridge falling. The UKMO switch this morning means the ridge falls slower than the other scenarios, so it may look better than the others at D6, but GFS has had this alternative a few runs and we still end up at D8 with a flattened ridge unfortunately.

[northwestsnow]

GFS building a monster of a PV early Jan- 

The profile to our SE doesn't looks all that bad but while systems rush across the Atlantic its just more of the same for the UK- ie mild ridge/wet westerly.

I suppose its just  a variation of the waterboarding torture technique for UK coldies..

Edited December 23, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

With winter fast approaching its mid-way point, everything's going along just 'as anticipated': raging zonality and with nary a sight of any deep cold coming this way...?

    

Or, should you be an eternal optimist...WTF!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Please kindly explain, Thank you. 

‘Westerly’ dominated.  HP to S or SW and LP skirting across Scotland so drier and mild in South and wetter and mild north as a general theme

 

BFTP

[Don]

52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS building a monster of a PV early Jan- 

 

It would surely take one hell of a warming to kill that PV?!

[fromey]

And just to add insult to injury this from the GFS!

[Don]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

And just to add insult to injury this from the GFS!

Didn't help us at the beginning of the year, though.  However, we were in a much better position this time last year and at least had a ticket for cold, but  didn't win the prize unfortunately.  This year, we certainly don't have a ticket (far from it)!

Edited December 23, 2019 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those of you currently experiencing difficult times, I hope the New Year brings you an upturn in fortunes. And a big thanks to the Netweather team for making this forum has great has it is.I hope you are already to dust yourselves down and get ready for a proper cold chase come January! Hopefully some of the ensembles I'm posting will lead the way forward come then. All the best folks.

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, IDO said:

Boxing Day nasty-low crossing on GFS 06z:

Great for the sporting calendar!

A couple of days respite follows, then it is similar to the ECM at D8, rather than the 0z GFS take:

It is rare at this range for such clarity so usually we can conclude the pattern is relatively stable and high-confidence. So ATM mini-ridge and trough sine-wave zonal looking a good bet as we head into the New Year. That may give high-ground up North some interest with that NW'ly cooler flow when the pattern intermittently dictates that. In-between we will at least see drier interludes in this setup.

Not particularly nasty in windspeed terms - definately wet - Snow on hills leading edge if anyones interested - Yes - Snow......

[Timbo]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Also, look at the progression from day 5 to day 6 on the ukmo. Looks semi-promising to me. 

Yes looks promising, the shortwave around Iceland is missing allowing the high to amplify more than other models, look a the deep cold trying to move in from the NE, what a turn around this would be if it amplifies more and pulls in a frigid North Easter, we have seen models flip at the last minute before , why not this time 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 Gosh between this thread and the winter thread the mood is grim  Christmas day looks lovely with the ridge of higher pressure, dry, sunny, light winds tbh if I cant have a snowy Christmas I will settle for that, boxing day looking unsettled with lower pressure moving across the country (still some room for position changes but think the worst will be towards the S / SW wind / rain then another ridge of higher pressure building in later on 27th / 28th and just a shame that looks to topple because with colder air plunging south across Scandinavia and parts of Europe if we could have got that higher pressure to draw in an easterly there could have been some wintry weather. With the MJO going through short spells in phases 3, 4 & 5 and the outlook for phases 6 / 7 upcoming that looks to tie in with what the models are showing  

  Gradually becoming more unsettled from the NW and a westerly theme (perhaps bordering on that dreaded "zonal" word popping up) phase 6 is a bit of a no mans land in terms of UK weather although still probably a westerly theme possibly weaker  not as unsettled and for us coldies phase 7 COULD be the key with a NE / E flow indicated, so I think I will be taking a break from model watching until signs of the MJO heading into phase 7 (hopefully) . And I will wish everyone a Merry Christmas & A Happy New Year        

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Ahh yes looks bad for a cold prospect on the gfs 6z and ECM 6z but its the weather and it will do what it wants. But everyone have a stunning Christmas and I will be back boxing day evening to see where we stand for beginning of new year in FI. Until then by kids. 

[bobbydog]

Maybe there is some hope for this winter. Pure speculation of course but maybe the GFS is showing us the route out of this "zonal" rut. We have a very strong, monster of a trop PV in the latter stages of the run-

However, with what's going on 'up there'

It's enough to de-stabilise the PV causing it to rip itself apart by the end of the run.

You just never know....

[MP-R]

At least we can look forward to the Atlantic switching off in March. Oh wait... 

  

Sorry... couldn't find anything of interest in the short term!

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

Maybe there is some hope for this winter. Pure speculation of course but maybe the GFS is showing us the route out of this "zonal" rut. We have a very strong, monster of a trop PV in the latter stages of the run-

However, with what's going on 'up there'

It's enough to de-stabilise the PV causing it to rip itself apart by the end of the run.

You just never know....

Your best bet is to ignore GFS strat forecasts at that range. They have been diabolical since November....remember a fair few even showed reversals? We didn’t even come close, the lowest it got was about 16m/s before rebounding to near record strength. Wait for them to get 7 days away and it might be worth a sniff.

Edited December 23, 2019 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

Cue a Daily Express 'UK To Be Battered by a Wall of Sand' headline! 

    

[Ali1977]

Day 9, quite different and could end up pretty cold - that little ridge of heights new Newfoundland may help.

It will only be a short spell of PM air though, look how cold the USA gets though

 

Crazy temp contrast in the USA from East to West 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[Geordiesnow]

Be interesting too see what the temperatures will be if that Euro ridge has a proper influence over the UK, maybe record breaking potential perhaps? A slight shift in orientation could mean slightly cooler temps especially the further south and east you are. 

The temperature anaomolies across Europe are astonishing, warming world, lack of snow cover all contributing to depressingly above average temperatures all across Europe. 

[bluearmy]

Favoured point for the Thursday upper low to head is across Scotland ..... ec eps showed that on the 00z clusters and the new icon and ukmo agree ........ gfs much further south and gem also ejects se through n England 

[SMU]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Favoured point for the Thursday upper low to head is across Scotland ..... ec eps showed that on the 00z clusters and the new icon and ukmo agree ........ gfs much further south and gem also ejects se through n England 

Forecast exit was Norfolk 3 days ago - Still happy with that assessment !

[Summer Sun]

Could be looking at mid teens in the favoured Foehn Effect spots later this week. An early taste of spring for some especially if you got some sunshine.

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could be looking at mid teens in the favoured Foehn Effect spots later this week. An early taste of spring for some especially if you got some sunshine.

 

Yep, as Phil Collins would say: 'No jacket required!'

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Forecast exit was Norfolk 3 days ago - Still happy with that assessment !

The models still in disagreement and I would say the momentum further north ........