Model output discussion - into Christmas

[blizzard81]

Well if things carry on like this there will only be knocker posting on this forum lol. Seriously though, I am still looking for signs of more amplification in the 5 day timeframe. All is not lost - yet! 

[Paul_1978]

30 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well if things carry on like this there will only be knocker posting on this forum lol. Seriously though, I am still looking for signs of more amplification in the 5 day timeframe. All is not lost - yet! 

It’s a tough time at the moment if you’re a coldie for sure, but on the plus side there’s still 2 full months of winter left. Plenty of time - it’s not as if we’re staring down the barrel of March.  

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It’s a tough time at the moment if you’re a coldie for sure, but on the plus side there’s still 2 full months of winter left. Plenty of time - it’s not as if we’re staring down the barrel of March.  

We could be staring down the barrel of an SSW in Jan although these probably much too progressive given the poor performance of all GFS related products lately in the strat. mid - Late Jan SSW followed by a blocked last half of winter - keep the faith.

[A Frayed Knot]

Why do charts on here throw out winter wonderland and very cold weather and very ice days and it never materialise, then I am watching the BBC weather who they now use Meto instead of Metoffice and they never ever hint at any cold only Christmas day and thereafter mild slush again to fllid the UK in many parts. 

Why don't these computer charts never come up trumps. 

Just wondering, send me a Pm and explain, Also Merry Christmas to all

[Jordan S]

Arpege midday run had a very interesting scenario for boxing day with heavy rain falling as snow as it pushes into northern parts of England and Wales during the early hours with some quite heavy snow persisting here but that's unlikely given no other model shows this. 

Arpege..

Gem..

Icon..

Gfs.. 

Most likely scenario is for a brief spell of hill snow for northern areas more especially for Scotland before turning back to rain with areas of fairly heavy rain circulating around England and Wales during boxing day with strong winds too especially for the West but pressure will rise quite quickly in the low pressure centre so winds should ease quickly. 

Anyway so a north south split tending to be shown post boxing day with unsettled conditions for the north but drier for the south although not completely dry here turning very mild with a southwest flow with then signs of a more straight westerly flow for the new year with perhaps cooler northwesterlies as high pressure pulls out to the southwest by day 10. 

Gfs.. 

For the 30th You can see high pressure tries to extend south from Greenland trying to introduce a cold northerly but with high pressure a strong feature to the south of the uk and low pressure systems in the Atlantic being too dominant we see this pushed out of the way cutting the feed off and maintaining a mild southwesterly flow. 

The GFS then maintains a southwesterly then westerly flow across the UK towards new years day drier for the south at first then a gradual progression to more unsettled conditions more widely with high pressure slipping further south. 

GFS..

29th..

30th..

New year's day.. 

Ecmwf similar with the high pressure at first bringing a mild southwesterly wind but mostly dry for the south with it then having the high building to the west enabling a northwesterly to develop bringing colder air in although precipitation would still be mostly of rain for most except Scotland with low pressure diving Southeast over the north of the UK into Central Europe at day 10 with a brief colder northnorthwesterly air flow with wintry showers behind more persistent areas of rain pushing southeast for most of the country with strong winds too. 

29th..

New years day.. 

A pretty mundane output in most people's opinion from both models but we shall see how things develop in the next few days but for the next 5-7 days so not looking anywhere near as wet as it has been particularly for southern UK with the exception of boxing day and tonight into tomorrow (Tuesdays) rain although this doesn't look significant at all but in 7-10 days signs of more unsettled conditions becoming more established once again for all and perhaps a little colder too but likely turning very mild for a time between boxing day and new years day. 

Edited December 23, 2019 by jordan smith

[Ali1977]

The less said about the GFS and ENS the better, Euro highs and no real PM air in FI!!

Edited December 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

The less said about the GFS and ENS the better, Euro highs and no real PM air in FI!!

ECM and GFS at 168, very similar over Europe but slightly diff over Eastern USA. Not sure what we’ll end up with. 

 

Here’s where the FI uncertainty begins , 192. Although still HP strong over Spain !! 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

REF PM air early Jan, the METO outlook seems to suggest that now, mentioning North or North west winds and wintery showers are possible!! Still some considerable uncertainty for later this month also mentioned, so let’s not write off early Jan just yet, even though the models are showing nothing interesting this morning.  

Edited December 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[IDO]

Still early days but it looks like some sort of tPV beefing up to where it should have been earlier in the season. So it looks inevitable that we will be going through a period of tPV driven NH weather, so not great. Whether the trop forcing, MJO, etc can cut through this we will have to see. The D16 mean is remarkable and consistent with the GEFS, in what ATM looks a very clear signal going forward:

Mean>OP>Control>

So the two options most likely are a NW'ly from a mini-ridge scenario or a zonal flow from a more NW to SE jet track. As the mean shows with time after repeated lows from Canada there maybe a sc/euro trough build?

Thankfully we know if the background signals improve this could change early-mid January and lets be optimistic that a raging tPV is not a long-term fixture.

[Beanz]

6 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Why do charts on here throw out winter wonderland and very cold weather and very ice days and it never materialise, then I am watching the BBC weather who they now use Meto instead of Metoffice and they never ever hint at any cold only Christmas day and thereafter mild slush again to fllid the UK in many parts. 

Why don't these computer charts never come up trumps. 

Just wondering, send me a Pm and explain, Also Merry Christmas to all

Because the weather agencies employ experienced meteorologists and forecasters.  They know better than to rely on one model, one model run and what happens beyond 5 days.  
 

There was never agreement from the models for a cold Christmas at a sensible time frame.  This forum is heavily biased towards cold/snow and therefore an accurate forecast cannot be gained from what you read here. 

[Lampostwatcher]

No greeny high 

No northerly 

No scandy high 

On any models atm 

In the next 2 weeks

[northwestsnow]

 

2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Because the weather agencies employ experienced meteorologists and forecasters.  They know better than to rely on one model, one model run and what happens beyond 5 days.  
 

There was never agreement from the models for a cold Christmas at a sensible time frame.  This forum is heavily biased towards cold/snow and therefore an accurate forecast cannot be gained from what you read here. 

TBF this is the hunt for cold thread so people will broadly speaking, look for cold.

Unfortunately 'Winter' 2019 , and i use that description in the loosest possible way, has so far delivered absolutely zero,nada so far.

Anyway, there are signs looking at the EC that things will dry out later in the week and into the weekend.The problem is we are looking at wet and mild,or dry and mild.

WRT cold, even by day 10 another horrid low coming off the eastern seaboard to flatten any hope of Atlantic ridging - 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What the models are now churning out is a very good example of what is anticipated for January......

 

BFTP

[AderynCoch]

13 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL- 168 EC

Of course, Eastern Europe finally turns cold after treating me to mild sweatiness, rain and frostlessness. Five days in Ukraine and it's been horrid even by UK standards (16C? Really?). I know it's not great the UK at the moment but it's been warmer here the entire time. I couldn't have had worse luck from a weather perspective. 

[northwestsnow]

EC mean by day 10.

We are looking at second week of Jan at the absolute earliest for even the hope of cold, if the mean is anywhere near the mark.

This could be an absolute first for me personally, that i don't even bother to look at NWP over christmas. #lostcause.

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What the models are now churning out is a very good example of what is anticipated for January......

 

BFTP

Yep,  very typical weather for January, nothing unusual.  

[Purga]

Potentially record breakingly mild in prospect now. Maybe February of this year can be beaten?

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean by day 10.

We are looking at second week of Jan at the absolute earliest for even the hope of cold, if the mean is anywhere near the mark.

This could be an absolute first for me personally, that i don't even bother to look at NWP over christmas. #lostcause.

But these charts shouldn't be a surprise,  apart from the odd op run and some individual GEFS there has been nothing pointing towards cold.

Throw in what the Pros and seasonal models have been predicting and you can see that no cold is the outcome. 

The days of an unexpected Easterly suddenly showing up at day 5 to 10 are long gone.

Personally,  I'm not looking at the NWP until mid to late January 

[cheshire snow]

Unfortunately not much to add.

To all the posters on here Paul and all the Moderators have a great Christmas put the weather on the back burner and enjoy your Christmas with family and friends.

C.S

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Unfortunately not much to add.

To all the posters on here Paul and all the Moderators have a great Christmas put the weather on the back burner and enjoy your Christmas with family and friends.

C.S

Seconded

 

[swfc]

Morning.didnt even check the models this morning just nipped on here.if nothing else transpires wintry wise hopefully the heighths to the south will keep things dry.il be out and about tom giving my regular homeless chums some food etc .I'm sure the dry weather will be welcome to them so not all bad.heres to a peacefull Xmas and a decent second half to winter 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What the models are now churning out is a very good example of what is anticipated for January......

 

BFTP

Please kindly explain, Thank you. 

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Lampostwatcher said:

No greeny high 

No northerly 

No scandy high 

On any models atm 

In the next 2 weeks

You mean like this

All that cold in Canada and eastern USA is curtains for us as far as winter is concerned. Look how deep that low is near Iceland, 932mb. 2013/2014 written all over that chart. Hope that one doesn't verify.

[blizzard81]

Deary me! I've heard of post Christmas blues but I think there is an outbreak of pre Christmas blues on here. As long as there is a meaningful cold batch approx from 28th Dec onwards on the debilt ens, I won't give up hope. Yes, it's still there. 

[blizzard81]

Also, look at the progression from day 5 to day 6 on the ukmo. Looks semi-promising to me.