Model output discussion - into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes the 6z GEFS have followed suit then if the EPS are showing NW PM air.

6Z actually brings a very potent north westerly early jan,,,

 

[Chesil View]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z actually brings a very potent north westerly early jan,,,

 

Indeed it does NWS.with high lapse rates I suspect any runners and troughs could produce something of interest almost anywhere.

[swfc]

36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z actually brings a very potent north westerly early jan,,,

 

At what time range NW? Tia

[blizzard81]

53 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I ahve to say 881 that your view is not really what meteorology would suggest if we look at the larger scale pattern. Later charts from EC show this occurring so there is not build of surface pressure over Scandinavia, and by T 240 the EC charts shows the surface high as back just SW of the UK.

I can't say that the 500 mb predicted flow exactly shows this, it does not, with EC-GFS showing differing ideas, see below. The NOAA version is much along the idea shown on the surface EC 240 h, and this model is often a more accurate 500 mb chart.

But you might be right but I would support the NOAA predicted 500 mb more than the others.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

To me for cold seekers there is little in the 6-14 day upper air outlooks that suggests any deep cold developing from 'any' direction at the moment.

I do have an interest in this as I go on my annual winter 10 days to the Jungfrau region in Switzerland a week or after the current 10-14 day outlook extends!

 

Thanks John. I always appreciate your thoughts. I am thinking there is still a small window of opportunity for height rises to our north east in the near to medium term - around 5 days from now. Certainly not banking on it but can't rule it out just yet. 

[Frosty.]

Nice 6z weather bomb!..hopefully see you again next year.

[feb1991blizzard]

For what its is worth which is very little in isolation - latest CFS brings a true cold January, the like of which we have seen once or twice in the last 40 years, lots of Easterlies, battleground huge snowfalls and a Northerly.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks for that Feb, that's certainly a sight for sore eyes. Just looking at the 6z ens to see if we are seeing any meaningful cold pooling to the the N/NE... and hey presto, quite a few are showing this scenario... Its a start I suppose... Anyhow, its time we turn our attentions to the new month anyway, this month can be quickly forgotten... Onwards and upwards. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs painting a very 2014 winter type.

2014 was the year i was dreading and 2019/20 could well exceed the unsettled awful weather back that year.

if we can get the heights out to our west or the siberian ridge to actually do something except just sit there,

then we might get somewhere the hemispheric view does not look good at all.

and the gfs stratospheric warming from yesterday vanished today.

Edited December 22, 2019 by MR EXTREMES

[MR EXTREMES]

vortex been rampant this year no blocking likely in scandi with a dominant zonal onslaught.

[Methuselah]

Well, well; I've seen many a worse 06Z ensemble than this one: late on, the trend is most definitely downward...

But, will it last?

[Nick F]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

To me for cold seekers there is little in the 6-14 day upper air outlooks that suggests any deep cold developing from 'any' direction at the moment.

I do have an interest in this as I go on my annual winter 10 days to the Jungfrau region in Switzerland a week or after the current 10-14 day outlook extends!

 

Yes, very hard to see where any deep cold will come from in the next few weeks, unless the upper pattern suddenly flips over the northern hemisphere. 

The general direction of the ensemble guidance of teleconnections important for us not really pointing in the best direction for now. After a spell in negative, both the AO and NAO are indicated to head north into positive in the last few days of the year and to start January. This indicates generally deep cold air bottled up at high latitudes in our part of the world.

This not helped by a longer term shift shown in the ensembles of the tPV from north of Alaska to Greenland and possible coupling of a strong strat PV with the troposphere too.

The only saving grace is the modelling of the MJO has been jumping around a lot between the models, so this may be why we see differences between GFS and EC with modelling the troughs and ridges over the Atlantic, but even if the position of these become more favourable for us synoptically, we may still have the issue of a lack of deep cold air to tap into.

Don’t want to sound too negative, but don’t think there’s great deal for coldies to get their teeth into for a bit until the pattern changes.

  

Edited December 22, 2019 by Nick F

[SLEETY]

We never seem to reach the downward trend in reality,lol

[SMU]

Just reviewing the pattern from Oct 3rd was almost identical

Actual chart below

Then in order UKMO Day 6 / GFS day 6 & ECM days 6 

For all the UKMO haters it was spot on. So I if it doesn't correct tonight to some form of undercut & recurve over the UK then perhaps it wont happen ( NB how hopeless the GFS was )

So for those who say UKMO day 6 doesnt beat the others ive picked one scenario > IE the one that resembles the currwnt output & UKMO was clearly the best. 

* NH statistics do not always count as we are referring to a small portion of the NH *
 

UKMO Spot on

GFS way to progressive & no ridge

ECM over amplified

 

ICON was rubbish so expect that to correct South on the 12z

 

They all got on the pattern around day 5

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

So now the ICON is out you can see at about 120 its recurved the low across Scotland then into the North sea instead of tracking it NE to norway

This is the net result at 168 (12z First )

 

[Anthony Burden]

Steve in the realms of any form the charts might show at present it is likely to chop and change.

The UK MET latest saying next week weather is very uncertain.That I think answers the Question 

can you trust GFS ECM MET or any for that matter to show the correct ability to forecast 24rs to 120hrs

let alone anything further.

 

 

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Steve in the realms of any form the charts might show at present it is likely to chop and change.

The UK MET latest saying next week weather is very uncertain.That I think answers the Question 

can you trust GFS ECM MET or any for that matter to show the correct ability to forecast 24rs to 120hrs

let alone anything further.

 

 

I think its that low recurving out past Norfolk with chilly weather from the ENE behind

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

For what its is worth which is very little in isolation - latest CFS brings a true cold January, the like of which we have seen once or twice in the last 40 years, lots of Easterlies, battleground huge snowfalls and a Northerly.

haha more ridiculous than a gfs18z

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

haha more ridiculous than a gfs18z

I would find it more believable if it was the feb anomaly.

[Anthony Burden]

Steve it’s along time since the U.K. MET  have stated that the weather in next 5 to 7 days are so uncertain.

Your take on this is the track of the low pressure around Boxing Day over the U.K. 

[Mike Poole]

Difference at T96 laughable between UKMO and ICON

Until this is resolved there is not much point posting anything later than this!

Edit: GFS seems somewhere in the middle:

Edited December 22, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Jason M]

With pressure forecast to be high across Iberia any short term modelling differences of particular features won't make a jot of difference to what most people on here want. Once the models start showing orange and red colours in that part of the world were on a one way ticket to Mildville. 

If its any consolation were in good company for a green Xmas (below from BBC website)

Moscow 3c Cloudy

Helsinki 4c Drizzle

Boston (US) 6C Sunny

Tromso (Norway) 2c Drizzle

For balance Oslo is sunny at 0C

GEFS have strong signal for heights to our south for the next couple of weeks.

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Jason M

[shaky]

40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think its that low recurving out past Norfolk with chilly weather from the ENE behind

Steve seen the latest arpege!!tracks the shortwave across the south coast instead and gives midlands and wales snow!!cannot believe the uncertainty at the moment!!if ecm goes with this mornings 00z and the arpege 12z i shall back the ecm!!

[E17boy]

19 minutes ago, Jason M said:

With pressure forecast to be high across Iberia any short term modelling differences of particular features won't make a jot of difference to what most people on here want. Once the models start showing orange and red colours in that part of the world were on a one way ticket to Mildville. 

Totally agree I think something out of the extreme has to happen to take us now into a pattern us coldies want. We have too much high pressure to the south and southwest of us. I am still sticking to my guns and thinking way going forward will be a milder interlude rather than a colder one. I may be wrong but that is my gut feeling not to put a downer but just trying to look at the worst outcome

[Weathizard]

Happy with the dry spell being projected, but long way to cold if we end up with this horrendous pattern.

[swfc]

29 minutes ago, Jason M said:

With pressure forecast to be high across Iberia any short term modelling differences of particular features won't make a jot of difference to what most people on here want. Once the models start showing orange and red colours in that part of the world were on a one way ticket to Mildville. 

If its any consolation were in good company for a green Xmas (below from BBC website)

Moscow 3c Cloudy

Helsinki 4c Drizzle

Boston (US) 6C Sunny

Tromso (Norway) 2c Drizzle

For balance Oslo is sunny at 0C

GEFS have strong signal for heights to our south for the next couple of weeks.

 

Wow realism you want to watch that on here.havnt you seen the ridge!!!!.yes the heights to the south are going know where fast.if your looking for a trend it's there to see.minor differences inevitable but long term nothing major.st least it may become dry going into the new year