Model output discussion - into Christmas

[damianslaw]

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS heading towards UKMO at 120... nice flow of NE winds sinking SW west of Scandi & the atlantic low has more disruption heading ESE over the UK..

Yes once again GFS 18Z not following the 6z and 12z script as it hasn't done for a number of days now. High pressure nosing through the UK northwards thanks to trough sinking through scandi. Not out of the question and is in sync with the general pattern of travel as we approach new year.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes once again GFS 18Z not following the 6z and 12z script as it hasn't done for a number of days now. High pressure nosing through the UK northwards thanks to trough sinking through scandi. Not out of the question and is in sync with the general pattern of travel as we approach new year.

I agree, although the profile to the NW continues to look very poor.

Edited December 21, 2019 by northwestsnow

[LRD]

Well, if I lived in the Balkans or Greece or Turkey I'd be going 'yabba dabba doo' at this little beauty

Unfortunately, I live in a damp, little island of the NW coast of Europe that seems to be expert at avoiding any sort of cold weather

[LRD]

As Blackadder once said - "I think the phrase rhymes with clucking bell..."

[Bristawl Si]

13 minutes ago, LRD said:

Well, if I lived in the Balkans or Greece or Turkey I'd be going 'yabba dabba doo' at this little beauty

Unfortunately, I live in a damp, little island of the NW coast of Europe that seems to be expert at avoiding any sort of cold weather

Yes, a frequent Winter feature of last 10 years or so in Europe, Greece being hit by cold and snow, or so it seems.

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

As Blackadder once said - "I think the phrase rhymes with clucking bell..."

Cold cyclonic outlook thereafter, forcing from the NW and low heights digging through Europe. All conjecture.

[Jordan S]

The rain in the south continuing mostly on the light side but some heavy bursts continuing into the latter half of the night as is happening atm so an additional 5-10mm locally more in a few places where heavier bands are slow moving this all courtesy of a deep low pressure system skirting the south the wrap around weather front pushes East later tonight bringing more rain to Eastern areas by morning some of this reasonably heavy in one or two spots, winds becoming quite strong later tonight for England and Wales.. Drier for the north with a frost. 

Drier tomorrow but some showers moving through particularly for southwestern areas from time to time. The north stays mostly dry with just a few showers but cold, milder further south. 

The GFS showing a system pushing in on Christmas day night into boxing day with a little snow on the leading edge for Wales and central england before moving northeast as rain alot of uncertainty with this for example Arpege although it doesn't show the time frame in question you can clearly see no rain nearby and Icon not interested until much later into boxing day with this all being rain and further north..  Uncertainty that is yet to be resolved which should be done by tomorrow morning. 

GFS..

Icon..

Arpege..

Edited December 21, 2019 by jordan smith

[swfc]

22 minutes ago, LRD said:

Well, if I lived in the Balkans or Greece or Turkey I'd be going 'yabba dabba doo' at this little beauty

Unfortunately, I live in a damp, little island of the NW coast of Europe that seems to be expert at avoiding any sort of cold weather

The ridge is a coming,long live the ridge!!!

[LRD]

And a proper Bartlett in FI

[SMU]

GFS Ens just 1 member looks like UKMO 168 which is PTB 3 which is ironically the coldest..

[blizzard81]

Haven't looked at the fax charts for some time but this is one of those occasions when they might come in good use. Days 3 to 5 attached. Days 3 and 4 look very promising to me but day 5 spoils the party somewhat. The progression looks way too quick to me between days 4 and 5. Just doesn't look right. 

[SLEETY]

ukmo by far the worst of the models now at 144 hours,and looks the same as icon at that timeframe,which was also before much more amplified.

ecm is much more amplified now at that timeframe and gfs not too different

Even at 120 hours,ukmo is by far the most progressive model now,so much inconsistency from any model at the moment!

[Newberryone]

Understandably quiet in here this morning when you consider the overall outlook. 0z Ecm providing little enough festive cheer, mixed for the next few days before things possibly settle down in the lead up to the New Year with high pressure encroaching from the south and feeling relatively mild by then as a result. Pressure does try to push further north it would appear but again the northern arm of the jet playing party pooper by displaying too much energy. Signs by day 10 of the high moving back west perhaps eventually leading to some kind of chilly northwesterly. 

[IDO]

So the consistency of the models for the mid-term remains and the transient UK ridge and topple looks nailed on, as it has for some days.

Post-D9 and similar D10's with the main NH long-wave features...

...just firming up on the ebb and flow of the forces. Looking at the GEFS well in FI, and still JFF as there is no clear route forward, but early-mid Jan looks like a resurgent tPV as the main feature:

I think that getting anything blocked will be later in January at the earliest*, assuming it is coming. The usual UK problem of watching the clock tick down and hoping! 

*The usual caveats & disclaimers.

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ukmo by far the worst of the models now at 144 hours,and looks the same as icon at that timeframe,which was also before much more amplified.

ecm is much more amplified now at that timeframe and gfs not too different

Even at 120 hours,ukmo is by far the most progressive model now,so much inconsistency from any model at the moment!

My feelings on the UKMO at D6 in these setups are well known, it is unhelpful at best! It continues to be trotted out as the last bastion of hope but 9 out of 10 times it backtracks. The latest verification puts it 4th of 5:

Usually it is 1st or second when there are not background signals like this.

[SLEETY]

40 minutes ago, IDO said:

My feelings on the UKMO at D6 in these setups are well known, it is unhelpful at best! It continues to be trotted out as the last bastion of hope but 9 out of 10 times it backtracks. The latest verification puts it 4th of 5:

Usually it is 1st or second when there are not background signals like this.

Well it’s been useless this time,ino model though seems to be handling the current setup very well.

Onto the new Year though it seems if we are looking for a change to cold.

[tinybill]

hi  all  just been looking  at the gfs   after  about  120 hr we  should have  a rest   from the constent rain from then   there  might be showers  about , but  looking  deep fantasy world its not looking at all nice from  234  hr  there could be some very heavy rain   coming

[shaky]

My god what a turnaround on gfs ensembles!!much milder now and scatter pretty much gone!!mild weather continues!!we have gone from 3 or 4 degrees by day and 0 by night to more like 10 degrees during the day and 5 at night!!its just heart breaking!!

[Faronstream]

34 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god what a turnaround on gfs ensembles!!much milder now and scatter pretty much gone!!mild weather continues!!we have gone from 3 or 4 degrees by day and 0 by night to more like 10 degrees during the day and 5 at night!!its just heart breaking!!

It's the 00z run they don't use  the same equipment so probably an outliner

[damianslaw]

ECM and GFS tuned together this morning, out beyond reliable, not often you can say that, with UKMO once again the odd one out. ECM especially is showing quite a marked drier spell post christmas which would be a good bonus, with high pressure dominating and just about staying in a position to guard off anything especially mild, indeed uppers under the high look cool, so temps at surface would struggle. GFS showing something a bit milder, but nothing especially so. UKMO isn't showing the ridge building north come the 27th and thereafter would allow the SW flow to sweep through.

I'll give it to this evening to call how next week most likely as a whole to pan out. 50/50 chance I would say for the high to hold until just before new year.

That Boxing Day feature is a real oddity and has spoiled the party because without it, we would have been looking at a more pronounced high pressure scene throughout. Not sure what is causing it? - Answers please..

[bazookabob]

2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

It's the 00z run they don't use  the same equipment so probably an outliner

Surely they can't ALL be outliers?! 

[Beanz]

37 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god what a turnaround on gfs ensembles!!much milder now and scatter pretty much gone!!mild weather continues!!we have gone from 3 or 4 degrees by day and 0 by night to more like 10 degrees during the day and 5 at night!!its just heart breaking!!

What period are you referring to??

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

What period are you referring to??

Pretty much the period from now till new year!!!

[carinthian]

12 hours ago, carinthian said:

Interesting UKMO extended at 168t. Completely different to what the other models are showing. Not sure how to view this with limited synoptic scope but seems to show retrogression of the ridge and cutting off any Tm airmass into the British Isles. A chink of hope !

C

Morning all, well needless to say the UKMO extended last evening has been well and truly binned. No support for it, not sure whether it was a rogue run or put in as a joke ! Best stop looking at these extended chart as they rarely seem to evolve and lead you down the garden path. So this mornings runs all seem to confirm a dryer spell between Christmas and New Years Eve for you lot in rain sodden blighty. A welcome relief no doubt and sure most will be glad to see the back end of this miserable month. Just cannot see where we can tap into real cold looking at the medium term models and that's includes much of Euroland as well. Maybe Santa will deliver a nice surprise in a few sleeps time ! Have a nice Sunday.

C

[Jordan S]

Morning

Well It's the Gfs and more especially the Ukmo against the Ecmwf and Gem on what the output may be post Christmas with the Gfs and Ukmo bringing a brief settled ridge of high pressure before low pressure systems push back in bringing rain mostly but not exclusively to northern parts and then we have the Gem and Ecmwf which after boxing days potential rain turns much drier everywhere with a strong build of pressure after boxing day but not particularly cold as winds are south of east.. 

Ecmwf..

Gem..

Gfs..

Ukmo..

The most likely outcome I think is a north south split after boxing day with northern areas fairly windy at times with spells of rain and showers but for the south mostly dry for a few days i think after the 30th/31st things may turn more unsettled widely again but that's not definite as its over a week away we will have to see how things develop over the next couple of days as to have an insight to how long any drier weather lasts but atleast its looking dry for Christmas day for most. We have plenty of winter left for cold and snowy weather don't get too hung up on the model output too much atm. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by jordan smith