Model output discussion - into Christmas

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, swfc said:

Guess it's possible but some decent cross model agreement with a short dry spell then wind and plus mild.tbh the metro have said the same for next week and along with other organisations and data you would be thinking there pretty close over that short period.guess Wel know shortly

 I really don’t understand why folks on here are disappointed with the model outputs and the Synoptics they are showing if you look most long-range models have showed that this winter will be average to mild and wet even the UK met long-range model in December showed the same thing

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Many inter-run changes to the minor details but all seem to lead to the same sequence of UK high, ridging, then topple. Subtle changes in the timings lead nowhere and we watch as the tPV looms to the north to cut off any nascent wave notions. Pretty much what has been showing for 2-3 days. I will be surprised if this is not what verifies.

So flattening of the pattern post-D9 with that HP cell train to the west. Can that develop into something other than a longer term flat pattern?

 

I know where you are coming from but the more amplification we can get in the 5 to 6 day timeframe over the UK and to our north east, the more chance we will have to achieve something like this at day 10 onwards. 

[SLEETY]

Ukmo just as bad as the others now,high pressure from the south pushing the jet north,so at least drying out ,at last.

Why can't we ever get high pressure from the north building down instead,so frustrating currently!

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I know where you are coming from but the more amplification we can get in the 5 to 6 day timeframe over the UK and to our north east, the more chance we will have to achieve something like this at day 10 onwards. 

Is that chart at ten days?sorry can't see.its not a great chart but high heading to UK so dry.jff something way out in fi wintry showers

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[Ali1977]

I would quite like this set up, at least the high doesn’t hang around Europe too long 

[Methuselah]

Aye, aye...What's this then? Mightn't last too long but, hey, we'll take it!

    

PS: I do hope it's nowt to do with 'missing' balloon data!

Edited December 21, 2019 by General Cluster

[Mike Poole]

Difference between UKMO and GEM at T144 is massive:

GEM looks great, just shows anything beyond T96 is open to question at the moment.

Edited December 21, 2019 by Mike Poole

[IDO]

JFF as post-D10 could be anything, but better than the 06z:

Probably the two ends of the spectrum? The main takes are no Arctic High so the tPV more a player and still the Pacific Ridge MIA.

[blizzard81]

29 minutes ago, swfc said:

Is that chart at ten days?sorry can't see.its not a great chart but high heading to UK so dry.jff something way out in fi wintry showers

Yep, day 10.

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Difference between UKMO and GEM at T144 is massive:

Anything beyond T96 is open to question at the moment.

Gem being wheeled out now?against ukmo

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[jules216]

Hideous changes with that low in Atlantic,UKMO and EC 0Z what was a day ago a promising output for Central EU now turning in to two day cool down from 14C to 5C 

[weatherguy]

39 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 I really don’t understand why folks on here are disappointed with the model outputs and the Synoptics they are showing if you look most long-range models have showed that this winter will be average to mild and wet even the UK met long-range model in December showed the same thing

In the same way that when LRFs show cold/blocked winters and we end up with mild/zonal winters, they can also be wrong in the other direction.  Or, the fact that an overall milder forecast does not prohibit colder spells, and that these colder spells may well become locked in due to the apparently stochastic nature of weather at times.

Back to the models themselves, my view has not changed since last night - although there is cross model agreement on the developing UK/Iceland/Scandi high collapsing under the pressure coming from the west, there is enough variation in this to allow the possibility of an undercut.  Still a case of wait and see how it develops over the next couple of days in my opinion.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gem being wheeled out now?against ukmo

GEM T144 verifying above UKMO 12z T144:

GEM is labelled CMC on that.  Yes I know it is a statistical anomaly at one point in time and isn't borne out generally, but just replying to your sceptical post, the GEM is a decent model these days and has had an upgrade in resolution to join what is now the big 4.  

[E17boy]

Good evening peeps

Rain after rain that's what it's been here in East London and now the more persistent lot is not far from the next approaching weather front. 

Guess it has not been the best of days for the models today.  To be honest the frustration is now showing and there is unfortunately not a lot we can do about it.  The current upcoming pattern ties up with the thoughts I had yesterday of possible south westerlies .Unfortunately the high-pressure that will be setting over us will not be in a favourable place for us Coldies.  We know from past experience these high pressures have been the destroyers of many of our winters . 

 The only good consolation from What I can see is that we are very lucky we are still in December (just imagine the output for today was for the end of January or mid February). I would put my neck out and say in the worst case scenario this next setup could probably last until mid January (but not discounting that this could flip before then) After which fortunately we will still have six or more weeks left of winter to salvage.  It will probably be a hard few weeks coming up but we have to get through this together .  Maybe after the storm has passed we will see some light at the end of the tunnel and then see a pattern that us coldies  are waiting for. 

 The wait for our winter wonderland is extended .

 Wishing you all a lovely weekend 

All the best regards

 

[swfc]

31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM T144 verifying above UKMO 12z T144:

GEM is labelled CMC on that.  Yes I know it is a statistical anomaly at one point in time and isn't borne out generally, but just replying to your sceptical post, the GEM is a decent model these days and has had an upgrade in resolution to join what is now the big 4.  

Fair enough mate on them previous charts ukmo is incorrect????? lets see what EC brings eh 

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[The PIT]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM T144 verifying above UKMO 12z T144:

GEM is labelled CMC on that.  Yes I know it is a statistical anomaly at one point in time and isn't borne out generally, but just replying to your sceptical post, the GEM is a decent model these days and has had an upgrade in resolution to join what is now the big 4.  

Surprising too see UKMO having a bad time a little while back. It's normal vying for no.1 position with the ECM.  JMA seems to be closing on the GFS for third spot. Despite all the upgrades the GFS can't seem to close the gap.

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Surprising too see UKMO having a bad time a little while back. It's normal vying for no.1 position with the ECM.  JMA seems to be closing on the GFS for third spot. Despite all the upgrades the GFS can't seem to close the gap.

Ukmo looks poor pit on the  12z ridging has opposed to the gem?

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[Mike Poole]

ECM siding with GEM over UKMO at T120, in that order:

Until this is resolved, not much point looking further ahead other than with the probabilistic ensembles or clusters...

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, aye...What's this then? Mightn't last too long but, hey, we'll take it!

    

PS: I do hope it's nowt to do with 'missing' balloon data!

yes even a plummer would be proud of that plunge.

[Ali1977]

168 and defo better than the earlier run, not as flat. The WAA mid Atlantic just appeared to drive north from 144, if that’s a new feature and heads further north at 192 it could change things. 

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

What about GFS???tia

GFS T120:

ECM T168:

Keen to push a second ridge, but will it be enough to sustain more than an eventual UK high?  Questionable at best, but as I said earlier the uncertainty occurs at an earlier timescale than this so it's a moot point.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T120:

ECM T168:

Keen to push a second ridge, but will it be enough to sustain more than an eventual UK high?  Questionable at best, but as I said earlier the uncertainty occurs at an earlier timescale than this so it's a moot point.

Oh I take your point but what inclines you to go with the gem.even at that short time scale all models arnt going to be identical!!

[swfc]

EC gone at 144-192 hours.the heighths to the south and the northern arm of the jet are repeating the same output on the nhp

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[Daniel*]

Much less flat....

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

EC gone at 192 hours.the heighths to the south and the northern arm of the jet are repeating the same output on the nhp

At least it looks a mainly dry run...