Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Purga]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Good grief!     

Could be a good time for worrying about 'encroachment' again!

Well at least there's some cold air getting into Eastern Europe....

Meanwhile, back at the ranch' we've got a lovely sub tropical splurge..

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Who cares? We've entered a new age where the weather completely ignores these MJO/solar cycle etc background signals and just continues its endless Atlantic low/permanent southwest euro high pressure onslaught.

 No it doesn't 

 

 

14 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

GFS 18z showing exactly why I said all options on the table earlier, also another way of cooling things down across Europe although optimal situation would be to get the coldest of the air across Siberia as far west as possible but baby steps and great to see some positivity in here although I would be very surprised if there are not further ups and downs in the runs to come through Christmas, just try to stay as open minded and positive as possible folks  

How predictable that pandemonium has returned  Lets just see where the runs go over the next few days but I know for certain I wouldn't be putting my money on any outcome at the minute given the uncertainty, still very much all to play for IMO.  

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 No it doesn't 

 

 

How predictable that pandemonium has returned  Lets just see where the runs go over the next few days but I know for certain I wouldn't be putting my money on any outcome at the minute given the uncertainty, still very much all to play for IMO.  

Isn't the Nasa model considered to be cannon fodder? 

[SLEETY]

Why are nearly all the current runs at the top end of the ensemble pack from all the models

Don't think they have a clue in the important area from day 5 .

Wouldn't be surprised if they trend colder from this afternoon runs.

Always the morning runs are milder .anyway

Edited December 21, 2019 by SLEETY

[Frosty.]

Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon change...anyway, I will keep an eye on the models and merry Christmas to everyone.

Edited December 21, 2019 by JON SNOW

[A Frayed Knot]

10 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon change...anyway, I will keep an eye on the models and merry Christmas to everyone.

We all wish your dad a speedy recovery from all of us weather geeks on Netweather.tv

[Mair Snaw]

@JON SNOW best wishes to your dad.

[swfc]

32 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why are nearly all the current runs at the top end of the ensemble pack from all the models

Don't think they have a clue in the important area from day 5 .

Wouldn't be surprised if they trend colder from this afternoon runs.

Always the morning runs are milder .anyway

Guess it's possible but some decent cross model agreement with a short dry spell then wind and plus mild.tbh the metro have said the same for next week and along with other organisations and data you would be thinking there pretty close over that short period.guess Wel know shortly

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Hi, I'm not sure which thread I need to report data issues but I don't know if you're aware Netweather team, the storm forecast seems to be having data issues with the LI index over the past week or so as you can see from the screenshot for tomorrow for Porthcawl, south Wales. There is a further thunder risk through tomorrow showing on the models but LI around 0 to -1 not -30 lol

[Methuselah]

Hope your dad gets better quickly, karl.

[SLEETY]

41 minutes ago, swfc said:

Guess it's possible but some decent cross model agreement with a short dry spell then wind and plus mild.tbh the metro have said the same for next week and along with other organisations and data you would be thinking there pretty close over that short period.guess Wel know shortly

Oh hadn't seen that ,guess we just have to be patient,some of the coldest weather occurs later in the season,but current output is grim!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon change...anyway, I will keep an eye on the models and merry Christmas to everyone.

So sorry to hear this Karl and i hope that he will get well soon,give him my kind regards

as for the models,a bit of a disappointment today but that's the nature of this roller-coaster and anything can happen because the models are still all over the place with fl starting as short as 96 hrs

as for the warming in the strat,there is an uptick showing again at 30/10 hpa from the jma graph,lets see if this one has meat on the bones this time.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[swfc]

Icon throws up a transient ridge up but soon looking like been flattened.also the heighths over Spain and France building

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Chin up folks... It wills soon be turkey and booze time. There is still some interest in the 6z ens, all be it further down the line. These cold charts are especially for my old posting buddy Karl... Aka Jon Snow... I have pmd you mate... Best wishes from me and all my family in your difficult times.. Hopefully some drier conditions for Xmas, perhaps some frost... Beyond that, anything goes.... Onwards and upwards...

[swfc]

Little change on the GFS 12z from this morning of any note.dry outlook but again the heighths to the south sending there Xmas greetings

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Little change on the GFS 12z from this morning of any note.dry outlook but again the heighths to the south sending there Xmas greetings

Better amplification though , not sure it’ll lead to much but big differences over scandy 

Edited December 21, 2019 by Ali1977

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Little change on the GFS 12z from this morning of any note.dry outlook but again the heighths to the south sending there Xmas greetings

Small improvements on the gfs 12z. Better angle of ridging over and to the east of the UK. Ukmo is also an improvement on this morning's nightmare. 

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Small improvements on the gfs 12z. Better angle of ridging over and to the east of the UK. Ukmo is also an improvement on this morning's nightmare. 

Hmm looks to flatten out tho ...ukmo at 144???

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[Ali1977]

Now I am liking the heights heading up over Newfoundland at T210, could be very diff this run 

[swfc]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Now I am liking the heights heading up over Newfoundland at T210, could be very diff this run 

Problem is it's fi as early as 144 hrs

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Problem is it's fi as early as 144 hrs

Agreed, it’s going to flatten out anyway I think 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Problem is it's fi as early as 144 hrs

I don't see that as a problem. The high uncertainty with the track of that Atlantic low at T96 gives us hope. 

[IDO]

Many inter-run changes to the minor details but all seem to lead to the same sequence of UK high, ridging, then topple. Subtle changes in the timings lead nowhere and we watch as the tPV looms to the north to cut off any nascent wave notions. Pretty much what has been showing for 2-3 days. I will be surprised if this is not what verifies.

So flattening of the pattern post-D9 with that HP cell train to the west. Can that develop into something other than a longer term flat pattern?

 

[Methuselah]

57 minutes ago, swfc said:

Icon throws up...

 

GFS does likewise! 

[swfc]

Games up on GFS 12z imo 144-168.see what EC shows later 72 -144 hrs