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Model output discussion - into Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Oh my gawd...

image.thumb.png.c8c2d3ea83f618478a29dd364d81dfe4.png

Post-Christmas 'heatwave' is still on. Surely we're looking at 15c or 16c in the sheltered NE of Scotland and 13cs and 14cs more widely

 

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4 hours ago, swfc said:

Nope.gfs and ukmo look very similar and going flat.latest BBC live forecast just showed wet and windy weather from the west later next week.ukmo -showing the low

It's the form horse and we'd be foolish to bet against it. Flattening out across the models with only the vaguest glimmer at the end of the ECM

Sadly 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Oh my gawd...

image.thumb.png.c8c2d3ea83f618478a29dd364d81dfe4.png

Post-Christmas 'heatwave' is still on. Surely we're looking at 15c or 16c in the sheltered NE of Scotland and 13cs and 14cs more widely

 

Yes. You cant polish a turd but truly shocking outputs from a cold perspective. Let's hope 2nd half of winter delivers then spring lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, West is Best said:

It's the form horse and we'd be foolish to bet against it. Flattening out across the models with only the vaguest glimmer at the end of the ECM

Sadly 

Its so sad for us coldies wib..

Nothing ever seems to go our way.

EC mean is truly horrendous this morning..

The lows spinning across the Atlantic are just relentless.

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Is this good??

9A4DE033-8BCB-45F4-AE14-5CD716B7BCB1.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

The GEFS still have a cluster of ens similar to last nights gfs 18z op run . Never say never ??

A97B7A29-4F66-4918-AC12-1ADB5B4C3BA1.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

This shortwave is causing havoc!!take a look at the latest icon 06z!!00z had it over france but now the 06z has it just west of ireland!!a move towards ukmo im afraid!!and once again a move towards a milder ukmo run than a cold one

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Latest extended eps suite with the Atlantic ridge closer to us than the previous run ..... that would have made the latter stages of the 00z gfs op plausible......new one is a stretch at best ..... I don’t have any faith in what’s being chucked out at the moment by the week 2 nwp ........

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
38 minutes ago, fromey said:

Is this good??

9A4DE033-8BCB-45F4-AE14-5CD716B7BCB1.jpeg

I've just made a post on this in the 'Models, Teleconnections and Nowcasting' thread here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92865-early-winter-models-teleconnections-and-nowcasting/?do=findComment&comment=4113363

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

From a cold perspective things do look to be in dire straights, the 18z from last night was clearly on all kinds of sauce.

That being said I’m actually happy with the output this morning, give me a solid dry high with temperatures mostly warm enough for the heating bill to be kept down and I’ll more than happily take that as second prize, it’s been utterly horrific down here with the amount of rain we’ve had rarely seen anything like it so this will be a welcome break whilst we wait for our next chance.

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Very hard to get a positive idea on what weather to expect post Christmas,GFS ECM MET all chopping and changing 

my take for what it’s worth,a dry few days over Christmas with average temperatures and pressure rise.Then

atlantic low pressure rolls in quickly followed by high pressure,that to begin with might bring some very mild

temperatures,before re positioning and bringing colder weather for all.Lets see if I get anywhere close.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
1 hour ago, LRD said:

Oh my gawd...

image.thumb.png.c8c2d3ea83f618478a29dd364d81dfe4.png

Post-Christmas 'heatwave' is still on. Surely we're looking at 15c or 16c in the sheltered NE of Scotland and 13cs and 14cs more widely

 

9roMCN8.thumb.gif.73d1725cd75787bf37f583e6f5830d43.gift2mCumbria.thumb.png.2d8e21afe7498c7d55705116e2336c75.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS 06z handles the low at T120+ simmilar to the ECM 0z:

1249784275_ECE1-144(3).thumb.gif.d65822137860e4027df274e47e2d4c12.gif701713371_gfseu-0-138(1).thumb.png.a7eef91d2d507a07420fe7eed90c8660.png

Maybe, finally, x-model support on that feature?

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Last night I said I would be looking at UKMO first this morning before all other models, expecting it to not show the shortwave feature to our west, as it looked the least likely to do this - what has happened instead is that it is showing it more of a feature than all others.. I am not sure what to make of it, as it doesn't at all tie in with the Met office forecast. I'm rather perplexed and feel the models are really struggling at present, with the reliable timescale a very short 96 hrs tops. 

Christmas Day currently looks like being mostly dry and calm for all at least. Boxing Day - not sure.

Longer term - ECM and GFS continue to show heights quickly sinking into Europe ushering in a long drawn SW feed, however, the way the high is tilted, developments to our North and the position of the jet which looks amplified, the high looks primed to quickly advect back west and much colder air drawn into the trough to our NE, a dig of very cold uppers, meaning we could easily switch from a very shortlived very mild spell, to a much colder cyclonic spell. 

I'm going to take a week off model watching next week, hoping things by end of tomorrow at least will become clearer for how the post christmas period might pan out.. but I doubt it.Fully expecting today to be a very topsy turvy one model wise, lots of options being shown, and might be wise not to look at the models today and come back tomorrow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Steady on, 6z at 120hrs looking similar to the 18z?

Slight ridge but that euro high is relentless .dry at least

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Steady on, 6z at 120hrs looking similar to the 18z?

Surely not, the 18z never resembles any other run

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Why do we never learn? Get hung up on one run last night as it showed what we want and did we really expect it to be the same this morning? Of course not they don’t call it the rollercoaster for nothing.

i really don’t think any of the models have a clue with what might happen, I no it’s hard to not get excited when those odd great runs come out but it just leads to a massive fall down all the time. Think I might focus on the footy today for probably another fall down but that’s the problem I just never learn and keep coming back for more.

enjoy your day people and I’ll be back on the coaster later no doubt 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

So after all the flapping around by the models, ECM and GFS now in unison to a rather straight forward topple of the ridge, deja vu all over again!

At D8: 1329865144_ECE1-192(4).thumb.gif.578c02f0d5148a936dd877f5300cf9a4.gif 915349857_gfseu-0-186(5).thumb.png.62b9d7d41b2443b736863444db7478d3.png

There are timing issues viz rate of collapse, but all in all rather an innocuous upcoming phase!  Certainly warmth rather than cold the take from this period:

gfseu-15-192.thumb.png.b847fbf6a3487c4fbd5adcd56393fd2d.png

Possibly a CET of +2c over the average for December?

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Models really having trouble resolving the influence that the low on boxing day could have with the Gfs having it far south as a shallow feature keeping mostly dry weather with high pressure building in for a time. The high moves slightly east with more rain pushing into North West Scotland by the 27th. 

1054234314_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_108(1).thumb.jpg.6e0b04af436852708e906093ef00aeb2.jpg

1103589821_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_126(2).thumb.jpg.67fa6542ab0e44822f923ef7f7b30523.jpg

1056122059_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_138(1).thumb.jpg.ec206d25218be498b2556b3b29fdff49.jpg

1026634913_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_156(3).thumb.jpg.c1b82d25a9d77310bea6664e8382be4e.jpg

Ecmwf shows the low a much more significant feature bringing a very wet boxing day with some sleet and snow to some hills. 

overview_20191221_00_120.thumb.jpg.033f4569e96738c09520a9b873f216a6.jpg

overview_20191221_00_129.thumb.jpg.5c19d1666b37f1904f0654d5c284abef.jpg

overview_20191221_00_135.thumb.jpg.4086ee2fcf475aee78647f7ce6b975ec.jpg

Gem shows nothing but a mostly dry day with that low not in sight.. 

overview_20191221_00_132.thumb.jpg.0656eebb0e8dd314b1a636ea3af82635.jpg

overview_20191221_00_156.thumb.jpg.b07bd6120f1fa16d9623216cacfbb1df.jpg

Ukmo shows that low becoming a more significant feature but moving into northern parts with no real build of pressure behind and an Atlantic pattern becoming more established with height rises towards Greenland. 

1069011060_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_144(7).thumb.jpg.7c02ad32e69053c464161833d4953f15.jpg

Worth treating model output even as early as boxing day with a sprinkle of salt atm and ofcourse this is salt on the wounds for anyone wanting particularly cold and snowy conditions. By tonight/early tomorrow they should firm up on boxing days weather. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, IDO said:

So after all the flapping around by the models, ECM and GFS now in unison to a rather straight forward topple of the ridge, deja vu all over again!

At D8: 1329865144_ECE1-192(4).thumb.gif.578c02f0d5148a936dd877f5300cf9a4.gif 915349857_gfseu-0-186(5).thumb.png.62b9d7d41b2443b736863444db7478d3.png

There are timing issues viz rate of collapse, but all in all rather an innocuous upcoming phase!  Certainly warmth rather than cold the take from this period:

gfseu-15-192.thumb.png.b847fbf6a3487c4fbd5adcd56393fd2d.png

Possibly a CET of +2c over the average for December?

Yes Ido not a great outcome but it's there to see.those insipid heighths over Spain and France are really an horiffic site

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good grief! h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png:shok:

Could be a good time for worrying about 'encroachment' again!:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

19B98DFB-FE66-4A9D-B2B9-C65259A37F9F.thumb.png.d715c5ce2d53de1a45f959fffb766959.png544FC78D-47E2-4A4B-8EFD-7542CBA30EB8.thumb.png.9f5eb715794bbe7ccad08dc8addec733.pngEF6FB8C3-D2BF-403C-B0C1-20187FCD8285.thumb.jpeg.c5b28175d99f4f073d2325d9c7678d54.jpeg

Its a highly amplified pattern though, not the hallmarks of a long standing high sat over Europe, look at the cold air advection to the east of the high, a trigger for the high to advect sharply westwards and cold pool to the NE. A short sharp blowtorch, followed by a cold blowtorch.. swings and roundabouts.

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