Model output discussion - into Christmas

[LRD]

3 hours ago, Jason M said:

The short waves are a result of the predominant pattern not the driver of it. A shortwave doesn't scupper anything it simply means that the atmosphere isn't supportive of what were hoping for. Always happy to be proved wrong but I see no evidence whatsoever that any deep cold will arrive at our shores over the next couple of weeks (I'd wager we agree on the last bit).

Spot on. Dunno why some struggle with this concept. If shortwaves appear, it's because the general atmospheric condition is conducive to that happening. If shortwaves don't appear, then the broader atmospheric pattern dictates that

[Weathizard]

Interesting difference at just day 6

[northwestsnow]

Too much energy in the northern arm on UKMO 144..

 

 

[LRD]

Met Office run is cool and possibly frosty over Christmas

Looks as though it will all collapse by the 27th or 28th going by that Boxing Day chart, though

It really is excruciating getting cold to these shores these days

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Too much energy in the northern arm on UKMO 144..

 

 

Yes indeed.looks likely to topple imo.dry tho which isn't a bad thing

Edited December 20, 2019 by swfc

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Too much energy in the northern arm on UKMO 144..

 

 

I disagree, doesn’t seem to be much to stop that WAA shooting due north.  Oh for a proper 168hr chart!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Johnp said:

I disagree, doesn’t seem to be much to stop that WAA shooting due north.  Oh for a proper 168hr chart!

Hope you are right and i am very wrong then John!!

That said, i imagine Christmas day and Boxing day will be quite cold ,esp overnight ..

Edited December 20, 2019 by northwestsnow

[SLEETY]

Too far out to be certain ,could have a frosty high sitting over is,and could retrogress as well

 

[LRD]

Just now, Johnp said:

I disagree, doesn’t seem to be much to stop that WAA shooting due north.  Oh for a proper 168hr chart!

Hope you're right, of course, but I can just see that low to the south of Greenland barrelling through the tentative ridge over Iceland

[carinthian]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Too much energy in the northern arm on UKMO 144..

 

 

We should get some idea from the extended chart at 168t later. GFS certainly more progressive. ICON has a low slap bang over the Irish Sea. Seems UKMO holding its guns towards a much drier scenario post Christmas. No common agreement presently with the models even at 144t. Will be interesting who gets it right. We will know on Christmas Day ! Now we await the Canadian and Euro Model latest version.

C

Edited December 20, 2019 by carinthian

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

We should get some idea from the extended chart at 168t later. GFS certainly more progressive. ICON has a low slap bang over the Irish Sea. Seems UKMO holding its guns towards a much drier scenario post Christmas. No common agreement presently with the models even at 144t. Will be interesting who gets it right. We will know on Christmas Day ! Now we await the Canadian and Euro Model latest version.

C

GFS 12z is better too C..

 

[Ali1977]

That low in the Atlantic is rooted at 168, not budging!! Should help the WAA set up for an easterly later on possibly.

[carinthian]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12z is better too C..

 

hI NW , sort of in between , then goes no where. Maybe trying to make its mind up. Not very inspiring for us cold lovers. Hope UKMO high remains more robust for some frost and drying out over much of Blighty. I get a feeling from their forecasters that may be the case.

C

[Ali1977]

Incoming Easterly? Or am I misreading

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Incoming Easterly? Or am I misreading

 

Its tons better than the 6z, and will keep the Atlantic away longer..

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Incoming Easterly? Or am I misreading

 

Slightly irrelevant given the change from the 6z but I'd say not

Edited December 20, 2019 by swfc

[SouthLondonCold]

Think it all depends on the low and weather it will stay put and head towards Greenland or barrel eastwards, like the 6z was showing. Big improvement, can the ridge link up to the Russian high? The Russian high is a much bigger feature this run, good improvement.

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, SouthLondonCold said:

Think it all depends on the low and weather it will stay put and head towards Greenland or barrel eastwards, like the 6z was showing. Big improvement, can the ridge link up to the Russian high? The Russian high is a much bigger feature this run, good improvement.

The problem is that on almost every op run that vortex-low to our west dives under the quasi-GH stopping it running north, giving an easterly push instead and flattening the pattern:

The 06z was indeed progressive with the pattern, but this flow has been consistent for run after run and despite my best efforts I cannot see the mechanics changing that will avoid that ridge falling?

 

[swfc]

So within the reliable time frames ukmo and GFS showing a dry cool period of weather.beyond that you may as well sniff the soil!!!

[Anthony Burden]

Looks like high pressure could be hanging around for some time,and Scandinavia looks a good 

Place to settle.

[Ali1977]

The HP heading north in the Atlantic could be interesting, reinforcing th U.K. HP, then retrogress up towards Greenland ...if Carlsberg did this run anyway!! 

 

Earlier today I posted lots of ENS where this happened , ending with a Greeny HP.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[blizzard81]

This might end up being a good run. Can we get some retrogression up to Greenland later on as mentioned above by Ali. 

[Ali1977]

What’s happened to the GFS, is it because I said this would end up a Greeny HP it’s having a wobble - stuck at 234

[swfc]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

This might end up being a good run. Can we get some retrogression up to Greenland later on as mentioned above by Ali. 

I hear what you say and possible.at plus ten days highly unlikely to verify blizzard

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This might end up being a good run. Can we get some retrogression up to Greenland later on as mentioned above by Ali. 

Stuck at 240 now, that second hp joining from the Atlantic looks primed to me, like I said there were 5 or 6 ENS that did this earlier.

 

And here it goes, high is moving west - then it’ll head north.  Fully aware it’s deep FI , are v v v unlikely to coming close but hey!! 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Ali1977