Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Methuselah]

Morning peeps.

So we go from Christmas Day's charts:

    

to the run-up to New Year:

    

Nae a pretty sight, for snow-chasers, is it!

[Beanz]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Morning peeps.

So we go from Christmas Day's charts:

    

to the run-up to New Year:

    

Nae a pretty sight, for snow-chasers, is it!

Forget the snow, that’s still nicely seasonal 

Could be a lot worse!

[swfc]

16 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Morning peeps.

So we go from Christmas Day's charts:

    

to the run-up to New Year:

    

Nae a pretty sight, for snow-chasers, is it!

I have to admit some dry weather is much needed but for me cold without snow is like a party without beer!! That's just me tho

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

39 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

ECM certainly looks like it wants to go down a milder path, no outliers in here.

 

Still a drier path though hopefully?

[Yarmy]

There is so much confusion on the distribution of energy in the Atlantic early on, how it's separated, the path of individual depressions etc. Just look at the differences between T114 on the 6z and T120 on the 0z of the GFS:

T114 6z

T120 0z

 

This run could see pressure build behind the storm to our south-west later in the run, but it's hard to believe any of it. 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Yarmy

[shaky]

The changes and the shortwaves all over the place early on are causing havoc for the models!!!!this is the first time in a long time that i will say do not trust any output today or maybe even tomorrow!!lets hope when the shortwaves do get modelled correctly that it favours a colder outlook or thats gona be 4 weeks of winter gone with another week or two on top!!

[Interitus]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

Meteociel archives the major models, e.g. GFS:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

 

Use the 'Activer Live Compare' for comparisons of runs within 24 hours. For longer comparisons, weatheronline expert charts allow selecting a lead time then varying the base time, as does tropicaltidbits

Edited December 20, 2019 by Interitus

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, jordan smith said:

Gfs now showing what the Gem was showing last night with a low pressure system pushing into most of England and Wales on Christmas day with heavy rain and strong winds with some snow on the northern edge of this system for northern England alot of uncertainty with this.. high pressure was shown on previous runs.. 

GFS..

 

the GFS 00z has been showing that shortwave feature for a few days. The ECM and the GFS 06z,12z, and 18z, has not but deflects it northward as pressure builds.

[mushymanrob]

The NOAA chart i posted on December 9th, predictive for the 17th - 23rd. Compare with the current GFS, out now... id suggest the NOAA chart is pretty much bang on. im not sure why these are somewhat ignored tbh.

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, shaky said:

The changes and the shortwaves all over the place early on are causing havoc for the models!!!!this is the first time in a long time that i will say do not trust any output today or maybe even tomorrow!!lets hope when the shortwaves do get modelled correctly that it favours a colder outlook or thats gona be 4 weeks of winter gone with another week or two on top!!

Hi, unfortunately shortwaves nearly always scupper cold and rarely bring us cold from changes!

Check at D8-D10 to see how the shortwaves have effected the long-wave pattern? To date various modelling of that low in question has made no difference to the bigger picture. We can only hope that something else pops up that the models have missed that changes the course. I cannot see it ATM.

[blizzard81]

It feels like another chase has slipped through our fingers. Don't think I can bear another snowless December. 

[swfc]

Looking at the northern arm of the jet and the heighths to the south id say any strong heighths towards Scandinavia are for the foreseeable a big ask imo.id fwiw would prefer an Atlantic high pushing NNE.its not forecast granted but a long seated holding pattern dosnt float my boat .some dry weather is welcome for sure but a stagnating frosty,foggy high long term no thanks.i realise the highs can and do move into favourable positions but could be a slog with the current output even with the lack of current consistency .just my take on things and I'm sure today an epic easterly will land

[northwestsnow]

There is a 1050 mb monster Siberian high on 6z, and its powerless in the face of an Atlantic on steroids 

I'm still pinning my hopes on UKMO...

Forlorn hopes most likely..

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There is a 1050 mb monster Siberian high on 6z, and its powerless in the face of an Atlantic on steroids 

I'm still pinning my hopes on UKMO...

Forlorn hopes most likely..

Yes it could be a saving grace,here's hoping NW

[weirpig]

Better block  on the control.  Much to be resolved yet 

[frosty ground]

Ensemble No.9 is the Jackpot

[Tim Bland]

34 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It feels like another chase has slipped through our fingers. Don't think I can bear another snowless December. 

Yep, December is done as far as snow for most is concerned Best we can hope for is some dry cold weather and hope New year brings something more interesting.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Better block  on the control.  Much to be resolved yet 

Yes thats much better

Probably chilly at the surface too.

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes thats much better

Probably chilly at the surface too.

Indeed  mean  not shabby either    blocked 

[Methuselah]

Much better potential, at the 06Z's scrag end...a possible evolution toward a NW-SE-tracking PFJ, with sliders, would be a good start...?

    

Though, at such long range, my wishful thinking may be nowt more than pie-in-the-sky...

[IDO]

The GEFS suggest the 06z op is too progressive. The mean sums up the biggest cluster:

<<D10 means>>

   

No sign of cold TBH and mild post-Christmas week looks the call. After D10 to be firmed up, no real clues on the GEFS on this run.

[weirpig]

Full ensembles  middle England   and one rogue run gets the lowest i have seen this winter  close to -15 uppers    

[E17boy]

Goodmorning peeps

Rather wet start here in East London and it does feel miserable and depressing . I am hopefull of some drier weather coming over later though.

Anyway back to the models and the outlook. To be honest I am feeling a bit low hearted at the moment. Although the models are all over the place, there is no strong evidence that a cold pattern is on the horizon ( although temperatures may drop but not what we want). What is a real concern for me at the moment and the reason to be downbeat is what could go wrong with this high pressure if it does not go to sit where We want it after Christmas ( presuming we do get this high pressure come over). I know yesterday there was a bit of excitement that there may be an undercut and we may see an Easterly, but that seems to be a llow chance ( it could still turnaround who knows) The thing that is really bothering me and probably a lot of us deep down know that this could be reality. If this high moved in a southeast direction, then we have a problem. I touched on this yesterday the doors could open to a southwesterly pattern in the new year. If this does happen sometimes these patterns are hard to get out of and could last for a couple of weeks if not more. I don't want to put a downbeat on us coldies but this is the worse case senaroo that could come out of this and I am being really honest about this. Considering we will already be 4 weeks in winter and having a southwesterly could take out another couple or several weeks it is a scary thought. Allso look at Europe where is the cold?? What are we going to tap into if we were to get an Easterly. I am still keeping an eye on how temperatures fluctuate in the coming days.

On the other hand due to the sudden flips and flops that we are having at the moment, the above may not materialise. Runs have changed overnight and so have patterns and the outlook could become more favourable. We don't know what is going to happen, but I think us coldies are feeling exhausted already, and we are only on day 20 of the metreological winter. We have still got a lot of time on our side and my wish is for the weather to play for us with the time we have. Even if this chase does not come to anything once we have watered our sorrows we will be back here looking for the next slightest hint for cold in our ever changing climate. Unfortunately it is something we will never be able to drive for our pleasure or control.

I think I have probably written enough from my thoughts for today. We are all in this together and I am sure we will have many ups and downs still to come on this rollercoaster ride. Hope I have not put a downbeat, I just wanted to look at the reality of things. Let's keep heads up and who knows what changes are to come with the models it maybe worth the wait fingers crossed. 

THE SEARCH AND WAIT CONTINUES 

wishing you all a great Friday

all the best

regards

 

[feb1991blizzard]

24 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Ensemble No.9 is the Jackpot

Yes - and not just pipe-bursting cold, it is exceptionally snowy for a good few days as well.

[MP-R]

Some cracking wintry runs in CFS FI... 

   

In all seriousness though, I think all still to play for after Christmas. Consistent signs of a change, just uncertainty around what that change may be. As I've said in other threads, it would just be nice to at least see a stop to this relentless rain... It seems like it's been November since September 22nd!