Model output discussion - into Christmas

[feb1991blizzard]

The end of that run - one way or another its a dumping - either a convective dumping for the SE or a frontal dumping for Scotland and the NW.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 hours ago, Catacol said:

Even if that doesn’t happen - and the odds of a full blown easterly in the short/medium term I think are probably slim - then it is important anyway that we get some colder air in place over Europe. It has been warm there in recent weeks, and that’s no good for us. One of a number of dominos that need to fall...

Something akin to the 18z GFS would do the job nicely   still a long way to go before excitement can creep in but if these little run - run upgrades and shifts of colder air west out of Siberia keep happening....

[bluearmy]

Ec 46 looks a bit more seasonal for jan .....nothing wildly spectacular showing on the means but surface temps are around or a little below average across the U.K. .....

that’s a start ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 46 looks a bit more seasonal for jan .....nothing wildly spectacular showing on the means but surface temps are around or a little below average across the U.K. .....

that’s a start ! 

ALso Northern blocking for week 5!

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS - Stonking set - some crackers coming up in FI

[ICE COLD]

Huge truck load of salt I know but maybe the gfs picking up on that warming the ECM is showing at the back end of its run (see the strat thread tweet from MV) . 

[MP-R]

I spy a potential frontal snow in the furthest reaches of 18Z GFS FI. Considerable cold building over the continent and a flabby Atlantic.

[northwestsnow]

A fascinating 18Z with another run bringing in cold weather over Christmas ..

(christmas eve)

Hope santa has his long Johns on!!

A cold start to Christmas day-

And a cold end ..

Boxing day also starts cold.

And ends cold..

Of course it may all look different by the 00z runs.

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - Stonking set - some crackers coming up in FI

Its worth remembering 850s only tell half the tale with High pressure in control.

ie high 850s don't always equate to surface conditons-(but i know you know that).

 

[northwestsnow]

Suddenly there are a lot more colder members on the 18z GEFS..

 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Suddenly there are a lot more colder members on the 18z GEFS..

 

Beat me to it was just about to post em , a lot better than the 12z set

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Suddenly there are a lot more colder members on the 18z GEFS..

 

Not as good as i had hoped when i saw the individuals at 192 but still decent though - i wanted a spectacular with loads flatlining between -10c and -15c after seeing the op.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Beat me to it was just about to post em , a lot better than the 12z set

Yes they are, clearly still lots of scatter so that suite could easily flip back ..

But yes there are more colder members than the 12z.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as good as i had hoped when i saw the individuals at 192 but still decent though - i wanted a spectacular with loads flatlining between -10c and -15c after seeing the op.

I don't think we will see anything approaching those uppers for the foreseeable- i'm just happy we look likely to have some cold festive weather to enjoy a walk and carol service.

Nothing worse than getting drenched - doesn't even feel like Christmas when its pouring down.

METO seem content to go with the sinking high scenario so unless we see a pretty drastic flip over the next 24-48 hours i suspect that is still favored.(Perhaps EC det a little hasty).

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I don't think we will see anything approaching those uppers for the foreseeable- i'm just happy we look likely to have some cold festive weather to enjoy a walk and carol service.

Nothing worse than getting drenched - doesn't even feel like Christmas when its pouring down.

METO seem content to go with the sinking high scenario so unless we see a pretty drastic flip over the next 24-48 hours i suspect that is still favored.(Perhaps EC det a little hasty).

Not really bothered about xmas as there is little chance of snow - only thing i care about is a proper tonking.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not really bothered about xmas as there is little chance of snow - only thing i care about is a proper tonking.

Yeah i know ...

Me too, would love to see march 2018 repeated in Jan 2020 - imagine the scenes up here

For reasons we could debate until the cows come home this type of event , or snow generally , seems to be becoming harder to come by.

Hoping the 00z runs get that high as far north as possible.

[snowray]

Here are the ENS for Central England, Berlin and Milan, lots of uncertainty starting from Boxing day looking at those three locations, could be some very interesting model watching coming up in the next couple of days, fingers crossed.

I'll take it as it comes I think and just watch and wait, because as soon as I get excited and open my big mouth it all starts to go wrong.

[Daniel*]

Viewing EPS’s forecast over successive runs for Christmas Eve is interesting spot a trend might materialise to nothing but there seems to be a more push for block to move more north, increasing the chance of colder weather from east particularly towards Southeast England. Possibly NW parts may turn much milder but the southeast could be rather cold a high lat block akin to GFS 18z seems difficult to achieve, but got to keep dreaming.

00z 18th Dec

00z 19th Dec

12z 19th Dec

[Purga]

18z ENS trending back with many more cold easterly options again - compared to 12z

Anything up for grabs!

[SLEETY]

Yet 24 hours ago people were screaming from the rooftops NO chance of an easterly till at least mid january,

Lol ,need to concentrate on the short term and ignore FL 

[Timmytour]

24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yet 24 hours ago people were screaming from the rooftops NO chance of an easterly till at least mid january,

Lol ,need to concentrate on the short term and ignore FL 

I guarantee there will be no easterly this winter. The consistency in the pattern is the removal of any chance the models might, once in a while, throw up.

It feels like I have lived through so many of these winters where, every so often a prospect, with never a chance any greater than 10%, is thrown up.

I love dipping into the forum with the hope Narnia will be visiting. This year I've rarely been so downbeat. Maybe it's the hope being tempered by the experience.  I am certain, looking at what the models have occasionally produced which has never been borne out, that this winter has within it a way to kill off any potential that might arise. To my mind we are looking at a very average winter. Nothing too warm, but certainly nothing too cold

[Snowman.]

11 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I guarantee there will be no easterly this winter. The consistency in the pattern is the removal of any chance the models might, once in a while, throw up.

It feels like I have lived through so many of these winters where, every so often a prospect, with never a chance any greater than 10%, is thrown up.

I love dipping into the forum with the hope Narnia will be visiting. This year I've rarely been so downbeat. Maybe it's the hope being tempered by the experience.  I am certain, looking at what the models have occasionally produced which has never been borne out, that this winter has within it a way to kill off any potential that might arise. To my mind we are looking at a very average winter. Nothing too warm, but certainly nothing too cold

Hiya mate,

I think it’s the burn from last year when the MO where talking of easterly winds for half of winter,  where the teleconnections were talking of blocking and a cold winter, and the EC monthly has height above average weeks in advanced  to the north and the start was favourable for blocking and disruption. 
 

Yet we ended up with a marginal snow event in the south and that was about it. 
 

This year I have taken the approach of being cautious as well especially when it comes to the LRF. But as ever it is about the chase and the hunt for cold that keeps me here when that starts getting removed I will probably input less but atm a decent chance of a block forming which may show its hand in the new year whether that be through strat weakening of just a plain old cold spell.
 

We should always keep looking for what may come up as you never know that could be the one. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Yet 24 hours ago people were screaming from the rooftops NO chance of an easterly till at least mid january,

Lol ,need to concentrate on the short term and ignore FL 

Wow. 

Common sense creeping in Sleety. Yes. Like a fool I looked at T+384 saddened that as good as it looks my grandson might as well randomly colour in with a pink crayon. Now back to the sensible near term Christmas Day looks well  cold and frosty. The next best thing. 

[Mucka]

UKMO 144, no complaints.

 

GFS front edge Christmas day snow for N England?

Much messier than UKMO at 144

Edited December 20, 2019 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO 144, no complaints.

 

Yeah this looks nice and more akin to the GFS 18z, the 00z not as amplified in the Atlantic but hopefully it ends up similar to last nights run.