Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Anthony Burden]

Game on ECM very good for cold lovers,frost will be on the cards over Christmas and temperatures will

be on the low side after night time frosts.Will that high pressure park itself in Scandinavia,a definite 

chance before the end of December.

[Stuie]

Firstly, I nearly created a storm weeks ago moaning about 10 day charts (sorry) and this is an FI chart but looking for a trend.

The ECM is trying for the holy grail of the azores/greeny link. This would be a huge step into the new year.

 

[Beanz]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - there is still some blocked members in the GEFS suite but enough successive downgrades now to render any Easterly dead in the water - sometimes the more scientific methods of GP and my less scientific methods agree and this is one occasion, in other words there are many ways to arrive at the same result - just that GP knew it a long time before we were ready to throw in the towel! - the 3 downgrades rule with EPS not blocked either - this the best GEFS member for what little it is worth now.

It’s nearly 400hrs away, how can it possibly ‘be over’ for goodness sake, in modelling terms it’s not even started yet! 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Beanz

[northwestsnow]

37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensemble mean T240 couldn't be clearer about high pressure taking control over the UK, what isn't clear is whether this pattern will evolve into a more blocking pattern that we would need for snow.   But given the wet dross we've had for more weeks than I can remember I'd welcome this chart to verify with open arms, and then, and only then, gamble for more...

Would be nice to see the pattern backed west a few hundered miles

 

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Game on ECM very good for cold lovers,frost will be on the cards over Christmas and temperatures will

be on the low side after night time frosts.Will that high pressure park itself in Scandinavia,a definite 

chance before the end of December.

Nice! No 'domestics' over Food v Beer in fridge. Beer can stay outside chilling

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Beanz said:

It’s nearly 400hrs away, how can it possibly ‘be over’ for goodness sake, in modelling terms it’s not even started yet! 

Game set and match eps over GEFS yet again - i wouldn't trust the GEFS to model the mesosphere or even the surface of the moon correctly let alone the surface pattern for a tiny island at the end of a strong Jetstream.

[cyclonic happiness]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Game set and match eps over GEFS yet again - i wouldn't trust the GEFS to model the mesosphere or even the surface of the moon correctly let alone the surface pattern for a tiny island at the end of a strong Jetstream.

Tiny island?? we're the 9th biggest island on Earth

I do agree, the complexity of the GFS even at mid range, all tiny lows all over the place, doesn't fill me with confidence.

But, i do think that at least it shows that the pattern is still not set in near to mid term, and that gives me hope and i feel better about it lol

[damianslaw]

Lots of uncertainty at present, details for the christmas period (24-26 Dec) as it remains just outside the reliable. ECM and UKMO showing a stronger ridge development from the south entering the fray, whereas GFS is less keen showing low pressure cells continuing to prevent a ridge from building. I would tend to favour ECM/UKMO options at such a range when in sync against the GFS, so unless future ECM and UKMO back away from the ridge tomorrow, then I would expect the GFS to also show the same - but sometimes not until the 72-96 hr range which can make for frustrating viewing.

In the near term further bouts of heavy rain, strong winds at times, generally mild, but not exceptionally so, with temps nearer average further north.

I remain hopeful we will see a drier chillier spell just in time for christmas, combined hopefully with some frost to make it feel a bit seasonal at least.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Since 2013 we've endured the worst run of winters in my lifetime in terms of snow and cold. I was born in '88. 

I'm seeing nothing in the modelling at the moment to suggest that we'll end this year/start 2020 any differently. There was a sniff of a pattern change yesterday, but when the forcing just isn't there you cannot expect miracles to happen. 

I'll get slated for this, but I think we're looking 2nd-3rd week of January now for any wintry potential. I'm just hoping we can get a mid lat HP over us to help us dry out a bit. It's dark, gloomy, damp and all a bit grim at present...

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Since 2013 we've endured the worst run of winters in my lifetime in terms of snow and cold. I was born in '88. 

I'm seeing nothing in the modelling at the moment to suggest that we'll end this year/start 2020 any differently. There was a sniff of a pattern change yesterday, but when the forcing just isn't there you cannot expect miracles to happen. 

I'll get slated for this, but I think we're looking 2nd-3rd week of January now for any wintry potential. I'm just hoping we can get a mid lat HP over us to help us dry out a bit. It's dark, gloomy, damp and all a bit grim at present...

There were a few other preety snowless mild winters pre-2013 as well, 88/89, 89/90, 91/92, 97/98, 99/00, 06/07, 07/08, just as bad overall, much worse than 14/15 and 17/18 which were ok overall, so hasn't been that bad, but granted we've had four shockers very recently, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 and last year.

[Jordan S]

Evening

Blending the Gfs, Ecmwf and Gem average output together we have this.. 

After the next few very unsettled days as already discussed early next week looking drier with showers and a breezy westerly wind.. Heights trying to build to the north of the UK just after Christmas this then sinks southeast and the Atlantic low pressure systems come back into the Northwest. 

High pressure quite a strong feature to the southeast by day 10.  

Edited December 18, 2019 by jordan smith

[Leon1]

TBH the talk of this winter not going to deliver goods is silly talk because most cold spells I remember appear out of nowhere usually less than a week before it happens. Usually there is some background signals too like the ones we had yesterday so why could they not come back later on? 

[SMU]

18z GFS & ICON both sharpen up the atlantic ridge @120-

[SMU]

25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Since 2013 we've endured the worst run of winters in my lifetime in terms of snow and cold. I was born in '88. 

I'm seeing nothing in the modelling at the moment to suggest that we'll end this year/start 2020 any differently. There was a sniff of a pattern change yesterday, but when the forcing just isn't there you cannot expect miracles to happen. 

I'll get slated for this, but I think we're looking 2nd-3rd week of January now for any wintry potential. I'm just hoping we can get a mid lat HP over us to help us dry out a bit. It's dark, gloomy, damp and all a bit grim at present...

Hi 

We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well.

Thats what makes the chase so exciting in a way & probably many reasons why people follow the models -the fact that most of the time things come to nothing but occasionally spring a surprise-

All we can do is continue to review whats happening & explore all the avenues to reach cold that the models throw up - thats why the vast majority want to see... 

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi 

We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well.

Thats what makes the chase so exciting in a way & probably many reasons why people follow the models -the fact that most of the time things come to nothing but occasionally spring a surprise-

All we can do is continue to review whats happening & explore all the avenues to reach cold that the models throw up - thats why the vast majority want to see... 

Yes that's the great thing about weather watching, it can throw up surprises out of nowhere, catching you unaware, which makes it compelling viewing, but agree more often than not we end up with something far more humdrum and temperate.

When it comes to winter, the second half is statistically far more likely to deliver colder shots from the north and east, than the first half, simply because the PV winds down, the atlantic winds down, SST's reach a colder value, and consequently the atlantic traditionally has a lesser power than the first half, and it is often therefore a long waiting game for anyone hoping for snow and cold.

Christmas really does come at the wrong time of winter for increased likelihood of snow and cold, as the PV is traditionally at its strongest, and the jetstream also tends to be at its most powerful. This will be the ninth consecutive run in to christmas that has been dominated by wind, rain and mild weather.. perhaps 2020 will buck the trend..

Back to the GFS 18z - quite liking the evolution at 120-168 hrs, more of  NW flow taking hold which could bring at least some snowfall to high ground in the north, followed by a colder bright frosty day on christmas day, unfortunately it blows up the atlantic thereafter , and prevents high pressure ridging through the UK, but it does come close on Boxing Day, and it has a tendency to overblow low pressure, so would not be surprised to see future runs pull the ridge through the UK, if it can hold for a couple of days and into the next weekend, I would be happy with that, to give at least something more seasonal temp wise, and a respite from the rain!

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by damianslaw

[Tim Bland]

Bizzare to see what is effectively a chunk of the PV sat out west (from 192hrs to 240hrs) just siting there with multiple small lows just rotating around each other

[joggs]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Bizzare to see what is effectively a chunk of the PV sat out west (from 192hrs to 240hrs) just siting there with multiple small lows just rotating around each other

Yes.It would never just sit to the east and just rotate.........

[Snowman.]

You better hope the 18z isn’t correct because it would be one hell of a wet start the new decade. 

[SLEETY]

8 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

You better hope the 18z isn’t correct because it would be one hell of a wet start the new decade. 

Despite what some posters would have you believe,the chance of GFS modelling the NH exactly correctly at the timescale where it blows up the low and decides it will just sit in the Atlantic for days and days is probably beneath. 0% 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Despite what some posters would have you believe,the chance of GFS modelling the NH exactly correctly at the timescale where it blows up the low and decides it will just sit in the Atlantic for days and days is probably beneath. 0% 

Yes - the same chance as perturbation 4 of the GEFS has of verifying.

[Snowman.]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Despite what some posters would have you believe,the chance of GFS modelling the NH exactly correctly at the timescale where it blows up the low and decides it will just sit in the Atlantic for days and days is probably beneath. 0% 

I am aware just saying how horrid it would be. 

[SLEETY]

Yes number 4  of GFS ensemble is what we would all like to see,maybe it will fluke it and it will actually happen!

[feb1991blizzard]

5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

18z GFS & ICON both sharpen up the atlantic ridge @120-

0z Icon sharpens it up even more.

Edited December 19, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Sharper ridge on the GFS as well.

[Mucka]

UKMO looks good for an Atlantic ridge post Xmas to me and brings a chilly Xmas morning

GFS quite different in some ways but also deliver a chilly Xmas morning with an attempt at an Atlantic ridge for the same time-frame. Could be a white Christmas for parts of Scotland on that chart and possibly some ppn moving into far S overnight.

Xmas night GFS ppn