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Model output discussion - into Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Yes - there is still some blocked members in the GEFS suite but enough successive downgrades now to render any Easterly dead in the water - sometimes the more scientific methods of GP and my less scientific methods agree and this is one occasion, in other words there are many ways to arrive at the same result - just that GP knew it a long time before we were ready to throw in the towel! - the 3 downgrades rule with EPS not blocked either - this the best GEFS member for what little it is worth now.

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

It is now apparent GFS not keen on any pressure rise over or around uk,met uk and Gem still keen on pressure 

rises from south over Christmas period.What will ECM come up with tonight,all still up in the air perhaps

ECM will give us a better idea if a pattern change may take place.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - there is still some blocked members in the GEFS suite but enough successive downgrades now to render any Easterly dead in the water - sometimes the more scientific methods of GP and my less scientific methods agree and this is one occasion, in other words there are many ways to arrive at the same result - just that GP knew it a long time before we were ready to throw in the towel! - the 3 downgrades rule with EPS not blocked either - this the best GEFS member for what little it is worth now.

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 but the possible development of the higher pressure is still out in FI feb so not sure how you can write it off? Also not been 3 downgrades from what I can see? Lets just wait and see how things develop as we head through the Christmas period toward the new year and see where we are.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

With how unprecidented wet this autumn has been,I can`t see this country coping with much more signs of solar minimum kicking in first the floods then the cold a few years later.

The jet is way south with it being so strong.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, SLEETY said:

Yes let's just use the GFS and say it's all been downgraded and no chance of any easterly ,and ignore the other models,despite gfs being the worst in the verication stats,time after time,this forum sometimes...

Here is the best verifying suite - how many Easterlies do you spot in there? - The reason we are talking about the GEFS dropping it is because the others were never on board in the first place bar a couple of rogue GEM op runs.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the best verifying suite - how many Easterlies do you spot in there? - The reason we are talking about the GEFS dropping it is because the others were never on board in the first place bar a couple of rogue GEM op runs.

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How many do you see from a set of 2m Temps? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

How many do you see from a set of 2m Temps? 

only about 3 that would be potent enough to represent an Easterly - so possibly none at all but more likely not many.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

How many do you see from a set of 2m Temps? 

Probably best to look at wind direction on Dutch coast. Not much evidence of an easterly there either.

eps_windrichtingpluim_06310.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

only about 3 that would be potent enough to represent an Easterly - so possibly none at all but more likely not many.

I think my point is you can’t tell what’s happening from a set of 2m temps in one spot on a small island on the east side of the Atlantic.

all that says is low temperatures are not affecting London

 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh no! It's all over again!! Personally I'd like to see the ECM take on thongs (I'll let the typo stand for comedy purposes - I meant things) before I throw in my third winter towel, I have 23 of them left, just so you know.

I've more towels than that and expect to use them all before February is over

Alot of rain expected and I'm absolutely sick of it now. A break from the models for me for a few days. Can't even get a decent week with high pressure to dry off

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I think my point is you can’t tell what’s happening from a set of 2m temps in one spot on a small island on the east side of the Atlantic.

all that says is low temperatures are not affecting London

 

Which means it cannot possibly be an Easterly as London would be one of the first places to be affected by an Easterly.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Happy new year Mike!!.yes it's a mixed bag with zero  chance of any thing looking clear

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think Kirkcaldy mentioned some decent ens earlier, and rightly so my friend.... We have a bit of everything... Scandy highs... Stonking Estly.... You name it.... The lot! All we need to do now is count down 300hrs.... No dramas! I'm always up for a chase, and sooner or later we will clock one..

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And so it begins, ECM T192:

image.thumb.jpg.f65863ad837376fc8c4bee545c65ed4a.jpg

But where does it end?

Edit T216:

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Say.   No.     More.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Gem shows a white Christmas for parts of Northern England, North Wales. Milder with strong winds and heavy rain for the rest of England and Wales drier for Scotland but cold. 

Just one run mind you so likely not nailed on by any means. Gfs and Ecm aren't the same. 

1125823052_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_168(1).thumb.jpg.89cba3016f6eb7ea2dd34b36450428af.jpg

Purple indicates snow.. 

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Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Decent ECM tonight > With so much pressure rising over NW europe & towards Greenland we shouldnt be writing anything off at this stage....

Ukmo looking ok??

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
57 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh no! It's all over again!! Personally I'd like to see the ECM take on thongs (I'll let the typo stand for comedy purposes - I meant things) before I throw in my third winter towel, I have 23 of them left, just so you know.

Well, the ecm certainly got it's thongs on tonight ☺️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton,East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton,East Sussex
35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Which means it cannot possibly be an Easterly as London would be one of the first places to be affected by an Easterly.

I’m no where near close to ever being as knowledgeable as yourself or other posters on this forum so no harshness from this I’m dying for a cold spell with snow  but If winds are originating from an easterly trajectory then we can only hope they will approach London, that’s if of course things are set up favourably for uk cold perspective.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean T240 couldn't be clearer about high pressure taking control over the UK, what isn't clear is whether this pattern will evolve into a more blocking pattern that we would need for snow.   But given the wet dross we've had for more weeks than I can remember I'd welcome this chart to verify with open arms, and then, and only then, gamble for more...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
11 minutes ago, Ryan3991 said:

I’m no where near close to ever being as knowledgeable as yourself or other posters on this forum so no harshness from this I’m dying for a cold spell with snow  but If winds are originating from an easterly trajectory then we can only hope they will approach London, that’s if of course things are set up favourably for uk cold perspective.

I don't class myself as that knowledgeable compared to a lot on here in terms of understanding the science but what knowledge i do have is really experience from modelling of previous Easterlies, Easterlies that bust and viewing archives of Easterlies that did verify, personally i don't think any Easterly in the next 15-20 days will make it to the UK and possibly not even to Holland, i think we will need yet another bout favourable teleconnections later in Jan - hopefully this time resulting in an SSW.

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