Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

What is FL? 

FL Fantasy land

FI Fantasy Island 

[Chesil View]

14 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Good morning peeps

Hope everyone is well. A nice start to the day here in Walthamstow a little cold but nice to see the sun and some blue sky that is till later when the next weather system comes in bringing more rain and wind later this evening.

i know we have had some good outputs from the models like last night and yesterday and it just makes the nerves excited. However there is a big IF and I think at this present moment I would not encourage anyone to get the sledges out yet. I have just read the Met Office extended outlook and it has lowered my heart a bit. I agree they do mention dryer and colder temperatures where high pressure is and also fog and frost. However looking carefully at the details it's always the south that is more prone to having these drier periods whilst the in the north unsettled conditions are more likely. This tells me high pressure is going to be in the south and from what I can read worryingly this may slip southeast and then we do have a problem ( doors to a south westerly pattern become open and we know if we get stuck in this it can be for a while). The only good thing about this longer outlook is that confidence is low. This is not to put a downbeat on here but it could be a direction of travell if regression does not happen, which I heartily hope will not be the case. All I say for now is let's just hope this high goes north or into Scandinavia and not east or southeast. 

We await eagerly for developments over the next few days. If someone is looking down at us please have some pitty on us coldies we have waited all year and will wait for our snow. 

Wishing you all a great Wednesday 

THE SEARCH FOR MR SNOW CONTINUES 

all the best fingers crossed 

regards

Hi E17 I wouldn't worry too much about the Meto extended out look  .  With the greatest respect to the excellent and skilled people that work there  I always read the 15-30 day outlook with interest but a great deal of scepticism especially when the words low confidence appear because it means their models are showing pretty much everything from a long draw southerly from Africa to to full on 50mph easterly non stop from Siberia. At that range for now they are as confused as the rest of us and waiting for a strong signal one way or the other too emerge.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I quite often suggest this as a less traumatic 'ride' at times beyond T+144-168. Believe me it does work.

But sometimes the 0z can be more accurate than the 12z, so if you go through one of those spells you could end up badly wrong and only cottoning on late - if you are going to use just the 12z i suggest only using the UKMO.

[jules216]

16 hours ago, Catacol said:

 

 

Can we get pinching in the middle layers while the top is displaced over to Siberian once again? Interesting possibility as we head into January.

And while this is out in la la land still, a clear signal for heights falling over Europe giving @jules216 his proper taste of winter while a strong anomaly builds to the north. Need to see this firming up over the next 5 days now to build confidence.

 

 

 

 

@Catacol Temperatures falling again on EPS, believe it or not I am still with a shot of snow on Christmas eve and also few more -20C clusters on top of it before new year, lets hope no last minute surprises come up

[shaky]

Better gfs 06z!!colder flow from the north west between 120 and 144 hours and no deep low across england!!infact that same low scoots across france this time around

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Better gfs 06z!!colder flow from the north west between 120 and 144 hours and no deep low across england!!infact that same low scoots across france this time around

Yes, I noticed that, a cool dry seasonal lead-up to Christmas:

Not too bad.

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps you need to go to spec savers and check your spectacles .

I agree though, until we have some cross model consensus we still don’t know what the post Xmas period will bring. Shame that GEFS aren’t as bullish this morning. Sod’s law they flip when the Op comes on board .  Odds on that High pressure will build in our local but will it sit to our west and will there be a sliding low to trigger an easterly

Think I'm going to have to get one for my spelling  

Of course I do think some are jumping the gun with this especially with the timeframe being so far out and a lot of things can go wrong or change really quickly personally I would wait at least a week before making any conclusions

[Catacol]

26 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Catacol Temperatures falling again on EPS, believe it or not I am still with a shot of snow on Christmas eve and also few more -20C clusters on top of it before new year, lets hope no last minute surprises come up

People are right to be cautious this morning - we have been burned before - but actually I think this shift in pattern will firm up. Signal for renewed EAMT is now clear, and the trend towards heights over the Greeny/Iceland/possibly Scandy corridor has been growing. 5 out of the last 7 GEFS see temps falling across most of Europe by NYE. When one factors in the track of the jet that we have observed over the last 6 weeks and SSTs that are supportive broadly of northern heights then confidence grows. 

However reasons for caution are easy to find. The clusters for NYE have a near 50/50 split with regards to the position of the block. Might not affect Slovakia too much, but of major importance for the UK!

We are onboard the rollercoaster....

 

[jules216]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

People are right to be cautious this morning - we have been burned before - but actually I think this shift in pattern will firm up. Signal for renewed EAMT is now clear, and the trend towards heights over the Greeny/Iceland/possibly Scandy corridor has been growing. 5 out of the last 7 GEFS see temps falling across most of Europe by NYE. When one factors in the track of the jet that we have observed over the last 6 weeks and SSTs that are supportive broadly of northern heights then confidence grows. 

However reasons for caution are easy to find. The clusters for NYE have a near 50/50 split with regards to the position of the block. Might not affect Slovakia too much, but of major importance for the UK!

We are onboard the rollercoaster....

 

Looking at that cluster 1 it will affect me too, although probably still on the cold side of that high but would take that cluster 2 anytime, that is very cold for central EU, while we write this another mediocre GFS op on the way, caution required indeed

Edited December 18, 2019 by jules216

[booferking]

Definitely one to watch can the wedge grow around Christmas.

[mb018538]

Here comes the high pressure..



Always nice to see those dark reds appearing over the UK. Strong anticyclone looking more likely between Xmas and new year, potentially increasing cold chances for us a bit later on.

[Ali1977]

Rubbish op in FI, consistency in between runs when cold starts showing up is awful. Always take the METO outlook into account before getting too exited. Hopefully the ENS jump back on the band wagon.

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Rubbish op in FI, consistency in between runs when cold starts showing up is awful. Always take the METO outlook into account before getting too exited. Hopefully the ENS jump back on the band wagon.

To be fair meto have also been solid with a cold spell in their outlook before but its ended up mild!!its happend already a few times this year so i dont think anyone should get too hung up on a meto outlook!!lets see what beauty the 12zs bring

[Catacol]

Trend continues to be good. New Years Day clusters - 70% see a block heading closer and closer to high lat...

Will it get there properly and embed, or will it flatten in the days after? Still a decent amplitude Pacific signal on NYD so amplification signal still present at that point.

 

[E17boy]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Hi E17 I wouldn't worry too much about the Meto extended out look  .  With the greatest respect to the excellent and skilled people that work there  I always read the 15-30 day outlook with interest but a great deal of scepticism especially when the words low confidence appear because it means their models are showing pretty much everything from a long draw southerly from Africa to to full on 50mph easterly non stop from Siberia. At that range for now they are as confused as the rest of us and waiting for a strong signal one way or the other too emerge.

Totally agree with you Broadmayne the models are all over the place and I think that will be the trend in the coming days. We don't know what weather lies ahead in the days to come will winter come to our rescue or will the Euro slug spoil the fun. That's the fascinating thing about our small island the blocks have to all fall in place. 

From my point of location here in East London I think we will do far better with an Easterly setup like the last Beast, that was epic. I have just got this dream of having a bitter Easterly and then a low moves up from the continent with heavy snow. I think it was back in 1991 when something similar happened I will never forget that and not forgetting the famous freeze in 2010 when buses came to a standstill in London. 

Opps I think thinking back to all these past snow events has made my heart beat now, could something really special be waiting for us. Who knows but our rollercoaster search will go on that's what this forum is about no matter how many times we are let down we will always be back here searching ever more for that glimmer of change on the horizon that will bring in the winter dream. 

THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES

all the best 

regards

[Anthony Burden]

Models are struggling big time FAX chart 120hrs show low just of east anglia,met office chart 120hrs totally 

different at same time.Not sure why they are struggling so much may be somebody has a few ideas.

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Models are struggling big time FAX chart 120hrs show low just of east anglia,met office chart 120hrs totally 

different at same time.Not sure why they are struggling so much may be somebody has a few ideas.

The FAX is 12 hours behind the UKMO at 120/. Wait for the next update.

[Glacier Point]

42 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Will it get there properly and embed, or will it flatten in the days after? Still a decent amplitude Pacific signal on NYD so amplification signal still present at that point.

 

I reckon it will flatten out soon into New Year.

There is a narrow window for a wave 2 induced pattern (high pressure centred close to UK) arising from a recent enhanced trade / reduced westerly across the central Equatorial Pacific and spike in tendency in angular momentum. Worth noting the direct correlation with this in the polar stratospheric pattern.

However, that won't last long. GFS suggesting a westerly wind burst across the central regions of the Equatorial Pacific in the next week.

That will increase angular momentum and trend more to a wave 1 pattern (both tropospheric and stratospheric) with associated lowering of surface pressures in the North Atlantic and dropping of Arctic air mass into the mid West States of the US. That should fire up the jet across the North Atlantic displacing any mid latitude ridge across North-west Europe. Strong presumption for jet angled NW-SE into Europe with moderate level +ve heights to our north within this regime. 

GEFS 06z ensemble mean makes perfect sense to me within that broad context.

What does strike me from current modelling is the propensity for scrambling of the mid layer flows across the North Atlantic, probably the low solar conditions beginning to take effect. Therefore, heights likely to be greater to our north than analogue guidance would suggest - but still overall signal is for troughing across NW Europe beyond next week's ridge.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Glacier Point

[knocker]

29 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Trend continues to be good. New Years Day clusters - 70% see a block heading closer and closer to high lat...

 

 

 

Interesting observation because I would have said 67% doesn't show that at all and the 33 a somewhat precarious ridge considering it a snap viewing of one day Then you are no doubt more skilled at interpreting these charts than me

[Anthony Burden]

Thanks that may change things hopefully to have some faith in at least 120hrs.

[Ali1977]

Well by the 28th of Dec unfortunately the Majority of the ENS have lost of that high lat blocking signal, it may be there later in FI.

By New Year’s Day there’s a few promising ones, but yesterday we have 16/20 go cold in FI. 
 

By deep FI we only have 5/6 that look like decent Easterly/Northerly set ups. Looks like the METO forecast is a good shout, drier towards new year then start looking West again 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Ali1977

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well by the 28th of Dec unfortunately the Majority of the ENS have lost of that high lat blocking signal, it may be there later in FI.

Reading GP's thoughts above, it sounds like we have been led up the garden path again only to be brought back down?

[feb1991blizzard]

Well that was a short lived chase wasn't it?

[Weathizard]

Pretty horrific GFS 6z, if it can’t even call day 5 right to this degree it shows why I said FI is about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

120 0z

114 6z

[Catacol]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

Interesting observation because I would have said 67% doesn't show that at all and the 33 a somewhat precarious ridge considering it a snap viewing of one day Then you are no doubt more skilled at interpreting these charts than me

In the more reliable there are a range of cluster options

demonstrating the variation in height anomaly location. Posting a 300h+ cluster spread is more for fun than for accuracy as you well know but it does demonstrate an ongoing trend when combined with GEFS runs. Not a snap viewing. Given your Met background I wouldn’t dream of comparing my own chart reading skills with yours honed over many seasons.