Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Mucka]

Certainly everything in the output needs to be taken with a huge dose of salt given the divergence between models and runs but the general theme is very good this morning so far.

GEM keeping things going.

[Ali1977]

GFS OP FI not without interest, if it isn’t an outlier it’ll be a bonus.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Day 11, the ENS have no idea with a real mixed bag as the spread shows. Not as good as the last few ENS sets (still pretty good though). We do have an Op with a beast in FI though

Edited December 18, 2019 by Ali1977

[tinybill]

hi all  i know  the gfs is all over the place but after  xmas  the gfs  is suggesting  in  la la  land,  the first day back to work for some could  be interesting!!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Where did that Scandi high spring out from on the Ukmo 144 chart ? Could it become a game player going forward or is it just a blip ?

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Ali1977]

59 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Where did that Scandi high spring out from on the Ukmo 144 chart ? Could it become a game player going forward or is it just a blip ?

 

ECM at 192 says no to any early NH HP although the lump of Purple PV has moved way North which is positive. Hopefully there’s signs of some height rises at 240 !! 

 

Up she goes at 216

 

Not bad, hopefully another nudge north and a more vertical ridge in the Atlantic,  allowing the Easterly feed with nothing stopping it. Perfect world and that!!! 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Ali1977

[weatherguy]

Clearly a theme for a highly amplified NH pattern by 240h which is definitely a good thing - uncertainty as is to be expected at this range over exactly where the amplification will occur and thus whether or not the UK will benefit as we head into the deeper realms of FI. 

In broad terms, it almost looks like a pattern which may represent a wave 3 attack on the stratosphere, with substantial blocking centred around the Atlantic, Siberia, and the Bering Strait[?] (excuse my somewhat limited Geographical knowledge for that part of the world).  Exciting period of model-watching approaching!

[West is Best]

Not a huge amount of support for the GFS 0z FI transition. On the other hand, neither is it an outlier:

Models have been indicating the high pressure transition post-Christmas on and off for a few days. 0z ECM at T240 clearly shows the advent of the high retrogressing towards Scandinavia. The result would be something similar to the GFS FI.

So, whilst this is all rather distant it is definitely something to watch and hold on to in hope.

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Not a huge amount of support for the GFS 0z FI transition. On the other hand, neither is it an outlier:

Models have been indicating the high pressure transition post-Christmas on and off for a few days. 0z ECM at T240 clearly shows the advent of the high retrogressing towards Scandinavia. The result would be something similar to the GFS FI.

So, whilst this is all rather distant it is definitely something to watch and hold on to in hope.

I'd say it's worth watching now - when you have just 1/2 members on their own i'd dismiss it. When you have 9/10 members below -5c then it raises the eyebrows. So we will have to wait with baited breath! A lot will hing on if/how the high develops in our neck of the woods just after Xmas.

[Dennis]

The grow and rise of an -AO block for a winter setup is seen just after XMas

[bluearmy]

Not the continuity coldies hoped for from the gefs. A broad theme, yes but need better than that for any confidence 

I guess whilst the eps are more keen on a mid lat block, we should remain v cautious but thankful that the rain may be on the way out for a week or so at least .......

[Newberryone]

A possibility one can see in FL is any pressure rise from the south being prevented from rising further north owing to there still being to much strength in the northern arm of the jet stream. 

[shaky]

Pretty boring ecm has to be said!!ukmo has to be the best so far in the reliable time frame!!could be one of the goose chases once again!!really tired of those now!!lol

[Newberryone]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Pretty boring ecm has to be said!!ukmo has to be the best so far in the reliable time frame!!could be one of the goose chases once again!!really tired of those now!!lol

Yes, agree with you there. One can’t help but get that sense of deja vous. The overnight Ecm run is certainly not akin to last evenings  gfs pub run. Euphoria to despair about sums it up.

[Beanz]

Watching the ECM.  I would pretty much ignore the pub runs quite honestly! 
 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Beanz

[BarnetBlizzard]

I can’t remember who has mentioned it before but they suggested comparing the 12z to the 12z the day before and the 0z with the 0z the day before etc instead of comparing the 12z to the 6z.  

If we do this we can see consistent improvements from run to run because although the 0z appear to keep downgrading on the 12z 12 hours before, they keep improving on the 0z 24 hours before. 

Might be a silly suggestion but thought I’d mention! 

[joggs]

48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not the continuity coldies hoped for from the gefs. A broad theme, yes but need better than that for any confidence 

I guess whilst the eps are more keen on a mid lat block, we should remain v cautious but thankful that the rain may be on the way out for a week or so at least .......

Agree. Hopefully high pressure will build in to give the sodden ground time.

If it moves across us for frost and wintry sunshine, a big bonus for me.

[Skullzrulerz]

I would honestly remain spectacle of this "colder spell" not too much support and with no agreement with most models I'm not buying it not to mention how far away it is

[Purga]

FI easterly tease signal still around I note

[NL]

12 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I would honestly remain spectacle of this "colder spell" not too much support and with no agreement with most models I'm not buying it not to mention how far away it is

Not looking through rose-tinted ones then..!

[Tim Bland]

15 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I would honestly remain spectacle of this "colder spell" not too much support and with no agreement with most models I'm not buying it not to mention how far away it is

Perhaps you need to go to spec savers and check your spectacles .

I agree though, until we have some cross model consensus we still don’t know what the post Xmas period will bring. Shame that GEFS aren’t as bullish this morning. Sod’s law they flip when the Op comes on board .  Odds on that High pressure will build in our local but will it sit to our west and will there be a sliding low to trigger an easterly

Edited December 18, 2019 by Tim Bland

[Anthony Burden]

Still lots of uncertainty in the models around Christmas,GFS pub run dropping high pressure and keeping low

pressure going.Gem looking to bring pressure rise to the north west,while ECM from the south more runs 

needed to show the yellow brick road.

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

A possibility one can see in FL 

What is FL? 

[E17boy]

Good morning peeps

Hope everyone is well. A nice start to the day here in Walthamstow a little cold but nice to see the sun and some blue sky that is till later when the next weather system comes in bringing more rain and wind later this evening.

i know we have had some good outputs from the models like last night and yesterday and it just makes the nerves excited. However there is a big IF and I think at this present moment I would not encourage anyone to get the sledges out yet. I have just read the Met Office extended outlook and it has lowered my heart a bit. I agree they do mention dryer and colder temperatures where high pressure is and also fog and frost. However looking carefully at the details it's always the south that is more prone to having these drier periods whilst the in the north unsettled conditions are more likely. This tells me high pressure is going to be in the south and from what I can read worryingly this may slip southeast and then we do have a problem ( doors to a south westerly pattern become open and we know if we get stuck in this it can be for a while). The only good thing about this longer outlook is that confidence is low. This is not to put a downbeat on here but it could be a direction of travell if regression does not happen, which I heartily hope will not be the case. All I say for now is let's just hope this high goes north or into Scandinavia and not east or southeast. 

We await eagerly for developments over the next few days. If someone is looking down at us please have some pitty on us coldies we have waited all year and will wait for our snow. 

Wishing you all a great Wednesday 

THE SEARCH FOR MR SNOW CONTINUES 

all the best fingers crossed 

regards

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

I can’t remember who has mentioned it before but they suggested comparing the 12z to the 12z the day before and the 0z with the 0z the day before etc instead of comparing the 12z to the 6z.  

If we do this we can see consistent improvements from run to run because although the 0z appear to keep downgrading on the 12z 12 hours before, they keep improving on the 0z 24 hours before. 

Might be a silly suggestion but thought I’d mention! 

I quite often suggest this as a less traumatic 'ride' at times beyond T+144-168. Believe me it does work.