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Model output discussion - into Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
23 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Day 14 means are about as useful as a chocolate teapot, the low res just won’t be picking up the usual spoilers that stop heights building too our north. One thing that is remaining strong is that PV around eastern canada and IMO whilst that is there it’s going to be very difficult.

Happy that heights appear to be building over us over the festive period, some nice dry days over Christmas will be very welcome! 

Agree, seen this too many times at that distance. Get a decent mean chart at day 9 or 10, then it becomes worth a notice. A day 16 mean chart isn't worth the pixels its shown on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I think the GEM needs to add some more colors to that bottom pallet

gemnh-12-240.thumb.png.742210c82bc9a883fcec4d4fa6399501.png

it finishes nice.

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.6917d27e40b919f27dc82e41b5b2244d.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA 192

JN192-21.GIF?17-12

ECM looking primed?

ECH1-192.GIF?17-0

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GFS and ECM at 192 are broadly similar, not great going off how the GFS Op ended up. Let’s see if they are similar at 240

0220DD0F-C7BF-4199-9F5C-A5AEFDB38521.png

B4E90EBE-4944-4A38-942E-5F4AED86EB42.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS and ECM at 192 are broadly similar, not great going off how the GFS Op ended up. Let’s see if they are similar at 240

0220DD0F-C7BF-4199-9F5C-A5AEFDB38521.png

B4E90EBE-4944-4A38-942E-5F4AED86EB42.png

ECM looks to me much better upstream, think this will be good in last two frames.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

ECM developing rather better this time. Compare 00z to 12z

00z                                                                                    12z

image.thumb.png.ca160a07e677d650249a1719cdfb74cb.png        image.thumb.png.f0fa4be67fe6588c25ba9beadb2e302e.png

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Damp squib 240 but positives overall, ensembles will make interesting viewing when compared to GFS.

ECH1-240.GIF?17-0

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not quite cold enough for Snow on the runner but a supportive trigger none the less...

Trends Steve, trends. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Damp squib 240 but positives overall, ensembles will make interesting viewing when compared to GFS.

ECH1-240.GIF?17-0

 

 

 

Be interesting to see where the Mean leaves us at 240, anything similar or better than this would be good 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Lots of chopping and changing from model run to model run at present - beyond the 168 hr timeframe, they seem to be struggling with where ridge development might take hold. ECM much keener on showing heights building to our west allowing a chillier feed from the north just in time for christmas, before sinking heights over the UK - which would at least deliver something seasonal with frost. GFS showing ridge development of sorts, but less concerted and then goes haywire with the jet - it often does this when.. complete different to yesterday's 18z which shows it is perhaps not best to get too hung up on output beyond 144 hrs at present.

In the near time frame - remaining wet and mild under slow moving trough which is going to circle in on itself, by the weekend some cooler uppers into the north so not overly mild here - fairly average.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Dare I say it, some signs of drier conditions towards Xmas and perhaps beyond.. I also see a cooling trend to this point, hopefully this will be backed up by the mean, but I reckon a colder end to the year is a decent bet right now... Word of caution, I'm a gambling man, and my luck stinks right now...

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Just for fun at that range but 12z gfs send 15 of the 20 ens cold or very cold towards the end while the op goes of on a mild goose chase

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

ECM last to come in with pressure rise over Christmas period,still many twists and turns to come.

Both ECM and GFS finding it difficult to get a handle on things from 72hrs onwards,so expect 

lots of chopping and changing,but I smell a cold frosty time around the corner.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
54 minutes ago, Catacol said:

5 of the last 6 GEFS runs for NYE have the near continent moving to below average temperatures. Continuity beginning to show, 

Continental temps likely to be low as a reflection of blocking - we know that recent days have seen blocking predicted but no continuity run to run .... the 12z gefs (and bus’s corrected) both show good Atlantic high anomoly Gricrland together with low euro anoms ....... this is a pretty strong mean signal but agreed that if it doesn’t repeat I’ve the two few runs then means little 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

 An “into Christmas “ new forum page, and an NAO/AO forecast like these, everyone on here would’ve taken that a month ago wouldn’t they??

Unfortunately nothing really substantive to glean confidence from just yet, other than a good handful of GEFS ENS . Let’s hope this aft and evening start the journey to a New Years freeze begins !!  
PS - John Hammond has mentioned “possibly” much colder just after Xmas, and things do look quite promising with regards a block - many would take a dry period, coldies just need it north of the U.K.!!  and yet watching the Met office live stream this afternoon they mention nothing of the thought in fact what they were saying lot of the long-range models are showing wet and mild so I think it’s just a case of wait and see

 

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