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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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Don't see any of the excitement at the moment because it's simply too far out (new year) personnely I think some are getting a bit much over one run 

Prepare for the immediate disappointed 

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Latest AO and NAO forecast  image.thumb.png.bcfecb2da62e92de88a2d84e675084cd.pngimage.thumb.png.aaf5697fefb39956b33304f9698542fc.png

 

for an atlantic block i like the AO ideas

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't see any of the excitement at the moment because it's simply too far out (new year) personnely I think some are getting a bit much over one run 

Prepare for the immediate disappointed 

Whats there to be disappointed about its only the weather and we're weather enthusiasts who love discussion the weather.

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28 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Latest AO and NAO forecast  image.thumb.png.bcfecb2da62e92de88a2d84e675084cd.pngimage.thumb.png.aaf5697fefb39956b33304f9698542fc.png

 

for an atlantic block i like the AO ideas

 

 

 An “into Christmas “ new forum page, and an NAO/AO forecast like these, everyone on here would’ve taken that a month ago wouldn’t they??

Unfortunately nothing really substantive to glean confidence from just yet, other than a good handful of GEFS ENS . Let’s hope this aft and evening start the journey to a New Years freeze begins !!  
PS - John Hammond has mentioned ‚Äúpossibly‚ÄĚ much colder just after Xmas, and things do look quite promising with regards a block - many would take a dry period, coldies just need it north of the U.K.!!¬†

Edited by Ali1977

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22 minutes ago, booferking said:

Whats there to be disappointed about its only the weather and we're weather enthusiasts who love discussion the weather.

Yes it will do what it does

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think we have seen a good couple of days modelling some sort of pressure build to support a continental / NE flow

What I would like to say over the next 24-36 hours is some consolidation of where the models see the high pressure ridging to & how it gets there- We have lots of trigger happy pressure builds so far from the suites but not much consistency ...

Also what sort of flow & upper air is going to come out of Norway & Finland at day 6-8

Warsaw ENS are a good sign!

Latest METO suggests a drier period around Xmas then more unsettled from the West more likely - GLOSEA not see any colder scenario just yet. Would this suggest too much PV which Prevents a sustainable block? 

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I can imagine this is a good thing?

i assume this is what some models are hinting at (GFS etc)

97CD126E-2512-47E9-BE75-F670B6471C5B.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest METO suggests a drier period around Xmas then more unsettled from the West more likely - GLOSEA not see any colder scenario just yet. Would this suggest too much PV which Prevents a sustainable block? 

‚ÄėLow confidence‚ÄĚ ¬†if the high happens then the most likely for them is for it not to go where we would wish but low confidence is the key here. We look for trends in future runs.ūüĎ欆They‚Äôre backing the form horse for now but outsiders come in from time to time.

Edited by That ECM

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29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think we have seen a good couple of days modelling some sort of pressure build to support a continental / NE flow

What I would like to see over the next 24-36 hours is some consolidation of where the models see the high pressure ridging to & how it gets there- We have lots of trigger happy pressure builds so far from the suites but not much consistency ...

Also what sort of flow & upper air is going to come out of Norway & Finland at day 6-8

Warsaw ENS are a good sign!

Also looked like the 06z was a warm outlier for warsaw so thats even better news!!

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ICON seems to fit in with current modelling 

180 sees the ridge aligned to the NE

429A2752-3875-4E96-8373-C5DAF62CE575.thumb.jpeg.222197b2a8dddf5c03b070c016938a12.jpeg

 

24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also looked like the 06z was a warm outlier for warsaw so thats even better news!!

Yes mate ūüôā¬†

UKMO looking very nice at 120!

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UKMO building strong Arctic/Russian blocking but can we bring it far enough West to affect us post Xmas?

 

UN144-21.GIF?17-17

 

 

Edited by Mucka

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON seems to fit in with current modelling 

180 sees the ridge aligned to the NE

429A2752-3875-4E96-8373-C5DAF62CE575.thumb.jpeg.222197b2a8dddf5c03b070c016938a12.jpeg

 

Yes mate ūüôā¬†

UKMO looking very nice at 120!

Hmmm something seems to be a foot here!!all of a sudden the deep lows that were forecast by the gfs for end of next weeek are gone and we are are left in a cold col situation right across the uk!!evaporative cooling/snow maybe for some?

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

UKMO building strong Arctic/Russian blocking but can we bring it far enough West to affect us?

 

UN144-21.GIF?17-17

 

 

I'm pretty sure the ICON came out with something similar to that a couple days ago?

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Heights at T180 much weaker to our N and NE, should help with any ridge building opportunities later into the run. 

8B93B0CD-2290-4C18-9446-34258F5022E9.png

65A4289B-4216-4443-BB2A-993CDA973002.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Hopeless gfs run ,if your looking  for cold.Could not be more different  than the 06 run if it tried.

 

Next!

Edited by SLEETY

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GFS hasn‚Äôt got a scooby past day 7. Look at the difference over Greenland in FI between 06z and 12z. It goes from 1035mb to 995mb! ¬£10 says it‚Äôs a mild outlier ūü§Ě

A57F1969-56DF-4A6A-B637-22FC020007E4.png

27857F37-F6DD-4C61-BF2B-4B7FBF0C1356.png

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Really a poor direction of travel on the GFS op today with the trend to flatten FI out, as if the previous amplified runs never existed.

D12: 1304161240_gfsnh-0-288(9).thumb.png.143555177d1a16ec9f9adb0c009c0bf5.png

Yesterday we had Pacific and Atlantic ridges and we lost the Pacific ridge this morning and now the Atlantic ridge is an Iberian high, with a raging tPV!

Thankfully, it is FI on the GFS, but ATM, I would be wary of any predictions for late December. In the interim rain again the watchword.

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hopeless gfs run ,if your looking  for cold.Could not be more difference than the 06 run if it tried.

 

Next!

that seems normal in all the runs i saw in all the years - some is very strange about it

Edited by Dennis

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GEM looks promising at 192hrs and a lovely Christmas morning with frost and light winds 

8F5DB6E4-F78B-44F8-BC10-7F52E2CB983A.png

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