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My prediction for London.

Jan: 8c/2c/60 mm/70 hrs
Feb: 9c/2c/20 mm/90 hrs
Mar: 11c/4c/40 mm/120 hrs
Apr: 16c/6c/10 mm/180 hrs
May: 18c/9c/50mm/180 hrs
Jun: 22c/12c/30 mm/200 hrs
Jul: 23c/15c/50 mm/200 hrs
Aug: 25c/16c/20 mm/220 hrs
Sep: 20c/12c/30 mm/150 hrs
Oct: 17c/10c/70 mm/100 hrs
Nov: 11c/4c/70 mm/50 hrs
Dec: 10c/4c/80 mm/40 hrs

Highest max: 35c 
Lowest max: 2c
Highest min: 19c
Lowest min: -6c 
Ice days: 0
Snow days: 3 
Precip: 550 mm
Sun: 1600 hrs

Edited by B87
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2020 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies

January Metrological bore February  Metrological bore March Metrological bore April Metrological bore and so on and so forth lol

Here is my prediction for the year 2020 and also some predictions for the decade of the 2020s. 2020 January: Generally unsettled but not especially wet. Snow potential during any polar marit

Posted Images

My gut feeling tells me that 2020 has quite a high chance of being the UK's warmest year on record, beating 2014, due to a combination of warm synoptics and the underlying global warming trend.  It's hard to predict how the mid to latter part of the year will pan out, and a 2007/2012 type summer (which is not implausible considering the similarities between winters 2006/07 and 2019/20 so far) could scupper that prediction.  However, I foresee generally mild weather persisting through January and February and probably into March, giving this year a head start.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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On 16/12/2019 at 00:35, Sunny76 said:

This will be the year of another poor summer, and probably the poorest overall since 2012. 
 

January : A slightly colder than average month overall, after a mild and damp start. From the 5th until 20th a cold spell will set in, but turning bitterly cold around the 15th to 18th with frequent heavy snowfall, and becoming more widespread between the 16th-18th. Some areas will record record levels. Windchill and low overnight temps will affect the most vulnerable. 
 

Not the best of starts! Better luck with the rest.

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1 hour ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Interesting that people are largely going for a poor summer - is this just on the back of thinking that we're 'due' another 2007/12?

 

I think we will have a summer similar to last year, but with a better June.

People are saying this winter has been like 07/08, it has also been like 88/89 or 13/14. Summer 1989 was excellent, and 2014 had a good June/July.

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By the same token, we are now overdue any sort of dry month and season.  Our last dry month was back in July 2019 and our last dry season was back in summer 2018.

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3 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

By the same token, we are now overdue any sort of dry month and season.  Our last dry month was back in July 2019 and our last dry season was back in summer 2018.

But 'Broadbrush', the last 3 years or so have been drier than norm down here (Bristol), except for last 3 months. The wet spell from early Oct through late Autumn and early Winter feels like wettest spell for years.

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4 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

By the same token, we are now overdue any sort of dry month and season.  Our last dry month was back in July 2019 and our last dry season was back in summer 2018.

I've commented before on how we seem to lock into dry and wet periods, we are currently in a wetter period..the variability that used to punctuate our seasons seems to have gone in many a recent year. In the last 25 years our seasons seem to have been dominated by one type of weather, usually either the wet mild theme, or the dry mild theme, with the occasional cold theme such as winter 09/10 and Spring 13. Blame the jetstream which increasingly seems to get locked in situ for lengthy periods, the classic ridge/trough pattern in succession has not been a strong feature, high pressure blocks over Europe seem to be growing in strength.

Back to 2020, not a clue how it may pan out, probably another very warm year, but not without some colder episodes, most likely to come when we don't want them in the warmer half of the year (May - October).

 

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At least one snow event in March to the north of the M4 corridor.

Dry and very warm April.

Dire summer as the Azores High goes on an extended holiday, as the Greenland High makes its return just when we don’t want it.

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I reckon slightly above average February with a few transient over 1000ft wet snow events in the north. At some point in spring there will be a spell of freakish, record breaking warmth, then a cool down back to relative normality, then at some point in June or early July there will be a spell of circa 35c temperatures for the south east quarter of England at least. Late summer will be relatively normal, early autumn unusually warm, late autumn average with a few frosts and maybe an early wet snow event somewhere and then it will become cloudy, mild and dull in the run up to Christmas. There might be a frost in the last week of the year. At Braemar. 

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January will be much milder, one of the mildest on record perhaps joint with 2008 or 2007.

 

Feb, cooler but still milder than average.

March, cold spells, cooler than average.

April, some warmth, average. wet

May, again, some warmth but mostly average.

June, about average

July, warmest month, maybe a few days of 30c+ heat but generally under 35c.

August - very wet and cool

September - milder than average

October - a little cooler than average, wet

November - periods of cold weather a little below average

December - wet and mild

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On 20/01/2020 at 00:00, Thundery wintry showers said:

My gut feeling tells me that 2020 has quite a high chance of being the UK's warmest year on record, beating 2014, due to a combination of warm synoptics and the underlying global warming trend.  It's hard to predict how the mid to latter part of the year will pan out, and a 2007/2012 type summer (which is not implausible considering the similarities between winters 2006/07 and 2019/20 so far) could scupper that prediction.  However, I foresee generally mild weather persisting through January and February and probably into March, giving this year a head start.

I hope you're wrong about 2020 possibly being the warmest on record for the UK (no offence!) but it will happen sooner or later.

Edited by Don
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On 20/01/2020 at 13:43, h2005__uk__ said:

Interesting that people are largely going for a poor summer - is this just on the back of thinking that we're 'due' another 2007/12?

 

For me it’s the fact that we’ve been near or in Niño for 2 years so we are due Niña coupled with other factors like solar and QBO phase also on that side of things and the PDO being somewhat neutral.

No guarantee of a poor summer of course.

Edited by summer blizzard
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22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

For me it’s the fact that we’ve been near or in Niño for 2 years so we are due Niña coupled with other factors like solar and QBO phase also on that side of things and the PDO being somewhat neutral.

No guarantee of a poor summer of course.

Sorry SB, but I don't buy into any of that...IMO, we may well have a poor summer, but until someone comes up with a reliable method of constructing seasonal forecasts---one that actually works---I'll just take it as it comes.:80::oldgrin:

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58 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Sorry SB, but I don't buy into any of that...IMO, we may well have a poor summer, but until someone comes up with a reliable method of constructing seasonal forecasts---one that actually works---I'll just take it as it comes.:80::oldgrin:

I see it in terms of probabilities. 

Of the 8 comparable ONI analogues for Q3, only (2002-2004 and 1990-1992) saw the third Q3 year average positive. That at least suggests declining angular momentum even if not a blown Nina. 

Further if we restrict to comparable events like ours of 20 tri-monthly values consecutively above zero then only 1992 averages positive (though declining throughout) with 4 Nina events and 2 cold-neutrals in addition to neutral-positive in 1992. 

1959

1970

1978

1988

1992*

2005

2016

Those summers produced not a single July or August with a CET above 17.3C and indeed if we exclude September (2 of the 7 were above 15C) then 42% of July/August were at 15.4C or below. Well above the statistical mean. 

 

Edited by summer blizzard
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

I see it in terms of probabilities. 

Of the 8 comparable ONI analogues for Q3, only (2002-2004 and 1990-1992) saw the third Q3 year average positive. That at least suggests declining angular momentum even if not a blown Nina. 

Further if we restrict to comparable events like ours of 20 tri-monthly values consecutively above zero then only 1992 averages positive (though declining throughout) with 4 Nina events and 2 cold-neutrals in addition to neutral-positive in 1992. 

1959

1970

1978

1988

1992*

2005

2016

Those summers produced not a single July or August with a CET above 17.3C and indeed if we exclude September (2 of the 7 were above 15C) then 42% of July/August were at 15.4C or below. Well above the statistical mean. 

 

Thanks for replying, SB...But did any of those analogue years feature a massive IOD, during the preceding months?

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3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Thanks for replying, SB...But did any of those analogue years feature a massive IOD, during the preceding months?

No unfortunately however +IOD events only appear to last around 6 months which suggests no long term impact (this one has ended it seems).

The main effect of this one seemed to be that it has scrubbed positive sub-surface anomalies from the West Pacific which again makes a move to negative more likely as we progress. 
 

image.thumb.gif.4daefbb55980b4ba55ea7ad0122da4a8.gif

 

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On 14/12/2019 at 08:12, Weather-history said:

Here is my prediction for the year 2020 and also some predictions for the decade of the 2020s.

2020

January: Generally unsettled but not especially wet. Snow potential during any polar maritime episodes. On the mild side

 

 

 

Looking reasonable.

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On 19/01/2020 at 20:59, B87 said:

My prediction for London.

Jan: 8c/2c/60 mm/70 hrs
 

I'm going to be well off on my estimate.  It'll be closer to 10c/5c/50mm/50 hrs

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On 15/12/2019 at 19:32, CheesepuffScott said:

Jan: Gloomy and cool overall, easterly flow with snow for a few days mid-month. Generally drier than average

 

 

Got something correct.

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  I will start with Feb.....

 

 Feb 2020 - Mildest in recent years. Settled and foggy mid month but ending with an horrific storm to rival Oct 1987.

March 2020 - A weird month starting stormy, segueing into the only real ‘winter’ weather of the season with a wet snowy early period and staying a little below average before an insane warmup near the end. Vet just below average at 6.2.C which will be lower than any of the 3 ‘winter’ months we have just had.

April 2020 - A prolonged spell of dry weather with very warm daytime highs and cool nights. Record CET of 12.1.C

May 2020 - Vacillating between unseasonably high temperatures exceeding 30.C courtesy of a very warm continent (breaking many May warmth records) and cooling off and stormier periods, CET close to 15.C so warmest in recent years.

June 2020 - At last a genuine ‘flaming June’ with insanely high temperatures on the Continent exceeding 40.C and our first ever temp above 39.C. CET running above 20.C until mid month thereafter the weather steadily degenerates into a succession of unseasonable Lows with a disappointing cold wet end. CET of 18.C, high but not a record.

July 2020 - The severe heat will shunt off into Eastern Europe and Russia with some places exceeding 50.C there. We will be left with a strangely autumnal feeling month of Lows and rain which will put the kibosh on the CET at 15.9.C

August 2020 - Very tops turvy, with an unseasonal cold snap early on bringing frost and even snow in places. Thereafter a High pressure over the continent will feed the warmth of Eastern Europe and Russia in a Heat of the East event sending temperatures over 41.C in the UK with a nighttime low of 28.4.C Sadly this heat will be a transient several day feast before terrific thunderstorms clear it off and resume normal Atlantic service before Bank Holiday. CET of 19.6.C, a record for August if not overall.

September 2020- The bank of heat in Europe will return, with an absolute outlier of a month and Mediterranean conditions. CET of 19.1, record breaking and outrageous for the time of year.

October 2020 - The 1st will see a 30.C day before the heat gently subsides but continues to cool as the dominant High gains a rather wicked Siberian origin and the end of the month is more of a Oct 1997(?)  with severe frosts and fog. CET 13.0.C, near record warmth, a record killed off dramatically by cold of last few days.

November 2020 - An unusual early season snowfall followed by a fairly Atlantic month but with much needed rain after a very dry Autumn. CET of 10.1.C

December 2020 - Like December 2015 on steroids until Christmas, 19.4.C recorded. An Arctic snap and Twixmas snow pulls the CET back to 9.5.C by end. 

 

  Also in 2020s...

   2021 - very wet Autumn indeed.

  2022 - Highest CET monthly value of decade in August 2022. A relentless heatwave seeing 40.C somewhere for over a week and the Met Office to issue a Level 4 warning.

  2029 - A trial of the Urban Heat Island Cooling project which sees freshwater pumped from deep underground at dusk on the hottest evenings in parts of London and Birmingham onto buildings and roads. Locally shown to reduce temperatures temporarily by over 8.C and daily means by over 2.C. Widely employed technology by 2030s that actually inverts the effect of the urban heat islands in warmest days.

 

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4 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:

  I will start with Feb.....

 

 Feb 2020 - Mildest in recent years. Settled and foggy mid month but ending with an horrific storm to rival Oct 1987.

March 2020 - A weird month starting stormy, segueing into the only real ‘winter’ weather of the season with a wet snowy early period and staying a little below average before an insane warmup near the end. Vet just below average at 6.2.C which will be lower than any of the 3 ‘winter’ months we have just had.

April 2020 - A prolonged spell of dry weather with very warm daytime highs and cool nights. Record CET of 12.1.C

May 2020 - Vacillating between unseasonably high temperatures exceeding 30.C courtesy of a very warm continent (breaking many May warmth records) and cooling off and stormier periods, CET close to 15.C so warmest in recent years.

June 2020 - At last a genuine ‘flaming June’ with insanely high temperatures on the Continent exceeding 40.C and our first ever temp above 39.C. CET running above 20.C until mid month thereafter the weather steadily degenerates into a succession of unseasonable Lows with a disappointing cold wet end. CET of 18.C, high but not a record.

July 2020 - The severe heat will shunt off into Eastern Europe and Russia with some places exceeding 50.C there. We will be left with a strangely autumnal feeling month of Lows and rain which will put the kibosh on the CET at 15.9.C

August 2020 - Very tops turvy, with an unseasonal cold snap early on bringing frost and even snow in places. Thereafter a High pressure over the continent will feed the warmth of Eastern Europe and Russia in a Heat of the East event sending temperatures over 41.C in the UK with a nighttime low of 28.4.C Sadly this heat will be a transient several day feast before terrific thunderstorms clear it off and resume normal Atlantic service before Bank Holiday. CET of 19.6.C, a record for August if not overall.

September 2020- The bank of heat in Europe will return, with an absolute outlier of a month and Mediterranean conditions. CET of 19.1, record breaking and outrageous for the time of year.

October 2020 - The 1st will see a 30.C day before the heat gently subsides but continues to cool as the dominant High gains a rather wicked Siberian origin and the end of the month is more of a Oct 1997(?)  with severe frosts and fog. CET 13.0.C, near record warmth, a record killed off dramatically by cold of last few days.

November 2020 - An unusual early season snowfall followed by a fairly Atlantic month but with much needed rain after a very dry Autumn. CET of 10.1.C

December 2020 - Like December 2015 on steroids until Christmas, 19.4.C recorded. An Arctic snap and Twixmas snow pulls the CET back to 9.5.C by end. 

 

  Also in 2020s...

   2021 - very wet Autumn indeed.

  2022 - Highest CET monthly value of decade in August 2022. A relentless heatwave seeing 40.C somewhere for over a week and the Met Office to issue a Level 4 warning.

  2029 - A trial of the Urban Heat Island Cooling project which sees freshwater pumped from deep underground at dusk on the hottest evenings in parts of London and Birmingham onto buildings and roads. Locally shown to reduce temperatures temporarily by over 8.C and daily means by over 2.C. Widely employed technology by 2030s that actually inverts the effect of the urban heat islands in warmest days.

 

50C weather in Eastern Europe and Russia? Pretty sure the highest temp there ever recorded is like 38C.

UK temps have never exceeded 40C never mind 39C. 

Mild Feb, yes, but probably not the mildest, last year was mild we had very hih temps.

Snow in August? Really?

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On 15/12/2019 at 18:35, LetItSnow! said:

well, my predictions may not be as in-depth as the first but here’s my gatherings from my crystal ball:

 

rest of winter: i think a mild & stormy start to the year with flooding yet again being in the news. perhaps january or february being a top ten record wet month. 

spring: a very wet spring with further flooding misery. quite cold, too, with some places seeing more snow in april than all of winter. 

summer: a mixed bag; probably quite hot at times but plenty of unsettled, thundery breakdowns. another wetter than average season. 

autumn: very mild. unseasonable warmth in september and/or october. another wet season, particularly later on. 

the year overall: a warm year, though not record breaking; c.e.t. between 10.10-10.40. an exceptionally wet year, perhaps top ten or top five. 

well my winter prediction was a success! 

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Not much point doing Jan/Feb since they're already passed...

 

March - Cooler than average with average rainfall, not much snow away from the hills.

April - dry and around average temps.

May - warmer than average with lower than average rain.

June - warmer and sunnier than normal with very little rain.

July - slightly above average temps but quite cloudy, below average rain.

August - well above average temps with very little rain.

Sept - Cloudier than average with average rain but still above average temps.

Oct - average temps and slightly above average rain.

Nov - sunnier and drier than normal with around average temps.

Dec - wet and windy with very little snow and slightly above average temps.

 

The 20s in my opinion are likely to continue the pattern of diminishing snowfall events with increased temps, probably breaking records in more than one year and wet, often stormy winters.

Edited by Ross90
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