Predictions for 2020?

[CharlieG]

The climate today is so unpredictable that forecasting is becoming less effective. I think one thing is certain: atypical and catastrophic natural phenomena will increase and intensify around the world.

[Weather-history]

On 14/12/2019 at 08:12, Weather-history said:

 

March: On the dry side, first real spring warmth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks pretty reasonable. Had the first real spring warmth as well

[CheesepuffScott]

On 15/12/2019 at 19:32, CheesepuffScott said:

Mar: Dry and mild first half with our first 20C of the year gives way to cooler and wetter weather at the end

Well it looks like the cooler and wetter weather was in the first half instead.

[B87]

On 19/01/2020 at 20:59, B87 said:

My prediction for London.

Jan: 8c/2c/60 mm/70 hrs
Feb: 9c/2c/20 mm/90 hrs
Mar: 11c/4c/40 mm/120 hrs
Apr: 16c/6c/10 mm/180 hrs
May: 18c/9c/50mm/180 hrs
Jun: 22c/12c/30 mm/200 hrs
Jul: 23c/15c/50 mm/200 hrs
Aug: 25c/16c/20 mm/220 hrs
Sep: 20c/12c/30 mm/150 hrs
Oct: 17c/10c/70 mm/100 hrs
Nov: 11c/4c/70 mm/50 hrs
Dec: 10c/4c/80 mm/40 hrs

My March estimate was a lot closer to reality than Jan/Feb.

[Sunny76]

A cooler summer, and an awful june I think. 

[B87]

19 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

A cooler summer, and an awful june I think. 

So a 1998 or 2012 repeat?

[Zak M]

May: More wet than usual, a cooler month than usual with the highest temp being 26c

June: More sunshine and more warmer than average, with a few Spanish plumes and overnight thunderstorms. Highest temp: 33c

July: Average month, with average rainfall and sunshine. Also the highest temp reaching 35c on the 27th.

August: A wet month, with temperatures around average. Highest temp being 31c.

September: A cool month, with temperatures a bit below average but more sunshine than recent months. Highest temp: 25c

October: A cool month with the first Atlantic storm. Highest temp: 23c

November: A very dry month with temperatures below average and more Atlantic storms. Highest temp: 17c

December: A very wet month with multiple lows bringing flooding to some areas and average temps for the time of year, with the highest being 14c.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

So a 1998 or 2012 repeat?

Something similar to 1998, with a slightly better August, but not as bad as 2012. 

[Derecho]

I reckon we will get the hottest April-June period on record followed by incessant rains when lockdown measures stop.

[B87]

15 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Something similar to 1998, with a slightly better August, but not as bad as 2012. 

August 1998 was actually very sunny and dry, though temps were around average. Maybe something like summer 2016 as well?

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I reckon we will get the hottest April-June period on record followed by incessant rains when lockdown measures stop.

I'd not be suprised if we saw something similar albeit not at that amplitude. My updated thinking is for a warm April (9.5C), close to or slightly warmer than average May and June (12.2C and 15C) before a cool and wet Q3 period (16.2, 15.9, 13.0). . 

Edited April 2, 2020 by summer blizzard

[Luke Bowett]

2020 so far

January: mild and mostly dry, CET: 6.4

February: wettest on record, CET: 6.3

March: quite dry and mild, CET: 6.7

April: very warm, sunniest on record, CET: 10.4

May: around average, dry, CET: 11.3 (as of 20th)

Predictions

June: warm and quite dry, CET: 15.4

July: hot and dry, CET: 18.6

August: hot and thundery, CET: 17.9

September: warm and wet, CET: 15.3

October: rainy and stormy, CET: 11.5

November: continued from October, CET: 8.6

December: mild and wet, CET: 7.7

[reef]

3 hours ago, Luke Bowett said:

2020 so far

January: mild and mostly dry, CET: 6.4

February: wettest on record, CET: 6.3

March: quite dry and mild, CET: 6.7

April: very warm, sunniest on record, CET: 10.4

May: around average, dry, CET: 11.3 (as of 20th)

Predictions

June: warm and quite dry, CET: 15.4

July: hot and dry, CET: 18.6

August: hot and thundery, CET: 17.9

September: warm and wet, CET: 15.3

October: rainy and stormy, CET: 11.5

November: continued from October, CET: 8.6

December: mild and wet, CET: 7.7

Annual CET of 11.4C based on that, 0.5C above the current record. That's not to say it cant happen though!

I have a feeling the second half of the calendar year will have more in the way of negative anomalies to balance things out, below average periods have been mostly absent so far in 2020:

[Metwatch]

Well it has been a roller coaster of a year so far. I think this dry weather is building up to something insane after August. Very wet and stormy Autumn then cold and snowy Winter. Just my guts feeling but this winter i think is the one for extreme snow but maybe not.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, jack greens said:

Well it has been a roller coaster of a year so far. I think this dry weather is building up to something insane after August. Very wet and stormy Autumn then cold and snowy Winter. Just my guts feeling but this winter i think is the one for extreme snow but maybe not.

Yes, I have a feeling this will be the one to deliver.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes, I have a feeling this will be the one to deliver.

Overdue something a fair bit colder, but doesn't always work out like that. We went a long period between 97-98 and 08-09 with no cold winter, a few near average ones in 00-01, 03-04, 05-06 but nothing especially cold. We've had a run of 7 winters which have been either average, mild or very mild, 14-15, 17-18 neat average, the others very mild. Will be interesting to see if the theory of coming out of a solar minima enhances chance of colder winter, 08-09 saw us coming out of solar minima, or was 09-10 one of the two anyway..

[Metwatch]

52 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Overdue something a fair bit colder, but doesn't always work out like that. We went a long period between 97-98 and 08-09 with no cold winter, a few near average ones in 00-01, 03-04, 05-06 but nothing especially cold. We've had a run of 7 winters which have been either average, mild or very mild, 14-15, 17-18 neat average, the others very mild. Will be interesting to see if the theory of coming out of a solar minima enhances chance of colder winter, 08-09 saw us coming out of solar minima, or was 09-10 one of the two anyway..

Yeah it was more 09-10 maybe even 10-11. also another reason those winters were cooler could be to do with pdo being begative enhancing it

[Weather-history]

On 14/12/2019 at 08:12, Weather-history said:

Here is my prediction for the year 2020 

2020

 

April: Wetter and milder than average 

May: on the average side, temperatures and rainfall

June: on the average side, temperatures and rainfall

July: Best month of the summer, on the warm and dry side. A couple of heatwaves

 

 

 

 

Gone horribly wrong 

[CheesepuffScott]

On 15/12/2019 at 19:32, CheesepuffScott said:

Aug: Winds predominantly from the south / south east, a very warm month, sunny and dry. Best month of summer

Please!