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Jo Farrow

Storm Atiyah - Atlantic storm No1

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Named by Met Eireann for late Sunday low 

"Storm Atiyah will track between Iceland and Ireland on Sunday generating a swathe of very strong winds across the country." 

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Edited by Jo Farrow
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Warnings now out from Met Eireann Orange for western counties and Met Office yellow for SW Britain 

There will be a spell of wet and windy weather on Saturday night, which public might confuse with named storm.

 

Information about naming of storms and how this time the Netherlands Met service are included  

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WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

The list of storm names for 2019 2020 season and how #NameourStorms works. Who chooses the names? Low pressures with the potential to bring severe weather, usually wind but can be rain or snow.

 

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Aaah they haven't stopped naming storms. It must be for wind only then these days.

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Some gust charts from the ECM,

Saturday night windy in Northern parts 50 to 60mph likely,

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Sunday lunchtime gusts in the 30s and 40s for most parts. Some of Scotland seeing around 40 to 50mph. Ireland windiest around the West coast gusts over 60mph,

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South West of England and Western Scotland seeing 50 to 60mph gusts by 9pm on Sunday. Ireland still the windiest with the South West coast seeing over 70mph and perhaps over 80mph,

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Over Sunday night into Monday morning windy across the whole country gusts in the 40s to 50mph for most some exposed parts over 60 to 70mph.

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The very strong winds definitely not restricted to the west and southwest attention should also be on a swathe of very strong perhaps damaging gusts of winds possibly moving northwest to southeast in association with a small area of low pressure in the flow tightening the isobars even more perhaps moving southeast through Wales central England into southern parts during the early hours of Monday morning possibly 50-60mph. Then a swathe of very strong winds perhaps over 70mph shown for the north sea fringing into the far east according to the Gfs by Monday morning. 

Gfs below. 

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Edited by jordan smith

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7am to 1pm timelapse of Storm Atiyah

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Edited by Zenarcher

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Some of the largest swells in the seas showing up..

1628930266_viewimage(1).thumb.png.c390f0d6df30047762ad05e9004d09f4.png 927179372_viewimage(2).thumb.png.0fd2dbe50e5fdc77d8f0f9b4fc7ffe77.png gustkph_20191207_12_030.thumb.jpg.b830887a3341a0d0a8ec345a77c03d5b.jpg-

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Some strong winds around this evening as Storm Atiyah starts makes it's way over to the UK. Widespread gusts between 35 and 45mph being reported some exposed parts just under 60mph. These types of gusts are expected to continue through the night as we take a look at the ECM gust charts,

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Sunday morning see's 35 to 45mph gusts along the West and Ireland has gusts mainly around 50mph with the West coast seeing over 60mph,
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Sunday afternoon the South West of Scotland could see gusts of 60mph. Across Western parts of England and Wales see gusts between 45 and 55mph with exposed locations up to 60mph. Ireland is still the windiest place at the moment 50 to 60mph being widespread with the South West coast of Ireland taking on the full brunt where over 70mph is likely,

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The evening see's the strong gusts move inland now Scotland at this point misses out on the high winds. Wales seeing 45 to 55mph exposed locations over 60mph. The South West of England gusts over 65mph and the exposed coasts over 70mph. Ireland continues to see high gusts move across inland between 50 and 60mph exposed locations over 70mph,

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During Sunday night to the early hours of Monday morning is when the high gusts will move across the entire country and reach more inland. Gusts ranging from 35 to 45mph for most places those in exposed locations will see as much as 55 to 65mph,

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Gfs take on storm Atiyah more in line with Arpege in bringing widespread gusts of 50-60mph over many places west at first then for more central southern and Eastern regions later in the night tomorrow. 

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Edited by jordan smith

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60mph inland? There's something wrong with that GFS data.

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The latest run has downgraded wind speeds slightly too, which is reflected in the Met Office forecast.

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

60mph inland? There's something wrong with that GFS data.

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The latest run has downgraded wind speeds slightly too, which is reflected in the Met Office forecast.

I'm Simply showing model output I've posted on other models too and Data wrong why? UKv model is one of many that should be taken into account. There's been a few situations when met office miss aspects as reflected by some of your posts in the regional thread with some warning being unnecessary etc. 

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2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

I'm Simply showing model output I've posted on other models too and Data wrong why? UKv model is one of many that should be taken into account. There's been a few situations when met office miss aspects as reflected by some of your posts in the regional thread with some warning being unnecessary etc. 

I know you're only showing the output, but that output is way over the top. If there was likely to be 60mph gusts that far inland, the Met Office warning would cover much of England and Wales. The UKV pretty much matches the current warning.

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15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I know you're only showing the output, but that output is way over the top. If there was likely to be 60mph gusts that far inland, the Met Office warning would cover much of England and Wales. The UKV pretty much matches the current warning.

But you can't say that when the event in question hasn't even occurred. The Gfs has been consistent too with this as has the Arpege. The Met Office warning not reflecting it doesn't mean its wrong it's just simply to them less likely. I can name several times that these models have been correct and the met have been left looking silly. I think its always important to show all scenarios so people aren't suprised or not suprised when it occurs.

Arome and Arpege both show a similar scenario to the Gfs so it can't be discounted. 

Not having a go Mapantz I'm just explaining what I've observed in past experience that's not to say they are wrong on tomorrow ofcourse. 🙂

PS: i'll be interested to know what readings you get tomorrow night. 🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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AROME is renowned for overcooking wind speeds/gusts.

The GFS has the LP too far North. It doesn't match the UKV, the GEM or the FAX charts. The GFS is showing stronger winds over Ox/Bucks than it is in Cornwall lol

I bet I don't get much over 40mph. 😄

Interesting to note though, this day last year here, saw 41mph.

Edited by Mapantz

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16 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Sorry but I think its always important to show all scenarios so people aren't suprised or not suprised when it occurs. Just explaining that's all. 👍

Which is fine . I think @Mapantz was just pointing it out. 

For what it's worth, I would've thought if there was any chance of 60mph gusts inland more would've been made of it than what's been said. 

 
Edited by matt111

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54 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

AROME is renowned for overcooking wind speeds/gusts.

The GFS has the LP too far North. It doesn't match the UKV, the GEM or the FAX charts. The GFS is showing stronger winds over Ox/Bucks than it is in Cornwall lol

 I simply take into account what all models show and with Whatever is shown by Arome Arpege gfs I will take into account. I'm not completely disagreeing with what your saying though and I take that into account when I post I check all models apart from that UKv one suppose I should buy access to it. 

I am aware that Arpege and Arome can sometimes overdo wind gusts but they are usually pretty good having said that if they tone speeds down in the next 12-18 hours I will mention it accordingly. 🙂

Anyway the high resolution AROME updated forecast does continue to agree somewhat with the Gfs for tomorrow night. Not saying its correct at all but there's still a risk of stormy weather for inland regions too as well as the usual coastlines. 

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Edited by jordan smith

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Arpege has now reduced wind gust strength for more inland regions of England and position compared to recent updates with very strong winds restricted to the southwest of England and Wales with gusts of 60-70mph shown inland for the southwest with 75-85mph over the English Channel and the Irish Sea which is similar to the dwd Icon this update now shows gusts inland for central and southern parts of 30-40mph much weaker to the previous run where 50-65mph was shown so big difference. very strong winds develop for the far east with gales along the north sea coast by tomorrow morning. 

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Edited by jordan smith

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Nothing spectacular about this storm.. Usual places will get the strongest of winds... Standard affair.. .Looking ahead though certainly southern England looks to take a battering 

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3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Nothing spectacular about this storm.. Usual places will get the strongest of winds... Standard affair.. .Looking ahead though certainly southern England looks to take a battering 

Yep. Wind speeds have dropped further for tonight. Tuesday is one to watch, though.

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Widespread gusts this morning of 30 to 40mph across most of the country with a few places reporting over 50mph. Some parts of Western Ireland have reported 60mph gusts.

Some of the Irish lighthouses and wave buoys will be interesting to watch over the coming hours here's some of their highest gusts so far,

Fastnet Lighthouse 79mph
https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/1203596190090178560

Ballybunion Buoy 63mph
https://twitter.com/BallybunionBuoy/status/1203610563416412160

Buoy 62023 (South of Ireland) 70mph

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Met Éireann have issued a status red for Kerry from 4pm to 7pm

Storm Atiyah: West to southwest winds veering northwest will reach mean speeds in excess of 80km/h with gusts in excess of 130km/h for a time this evening. Extreme caution is advised, especially near the coast and on high ground.

Due to a combination of high seas and storm surge there is a possibility of coastal flooding.

Issued: Sunday 08 December 2019 10:00

Valid from: Sunday 08 December 2019 16:00 to Sunday 08 December 2019 19:00

https://www.met.ie/#

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