Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

You forgot to mention it’s 348 hours away. 

Just a mere technically that...

[feb1991blizzard]

CFS decent for Jan - 2c negative 850mb temperature anomaly.

[snowray]

JMA also say's YES!

[Kentspur]

I'm assuming this model is pretty much Cannon fodder? As that's one dramatic flip from SSW territory in yesterdays model run ensembles in January, to now well above average zonal winds?!

[Westonchris]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I'm assuming this model is pretty much Cannon fodder? As that's one dramatic flip from SSW territory in yesterdays model run ensembles in January, to now well above average zonal winds?!

models can and do flip pretty quick , if there sniffing out something ....

[Dennis]

GFS0z shows a massive scandinavian block with eastwinds  

good to see this 

WINTER ahead - hope this works out

LOVE WEATHER

 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Dennis

[weatherguy]

Quick one before I go off to work, this is one of the most bizarre charts I've seen the GFS throw out in FI 

Monster block, but a monster PV!  Chances of seeing this exact scenario virtually 0% at this stage, but my god would something like this be fun to see play out...

[northwestsnow]

EC/GFS both going for some sort of pressure rises near the UK around Christmas day..

Hopefully a trend maintained over the coming days ..

The further west the high across Spain moves north the better- as can be seen by GFS.

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

Oh My (Sidney cover yer nuts!) the GFS 00Z at T+378 is a thing of beauty!

    

And it looks as if that pesky European heat-dome is finally about to evaporate...?

[mb018538]

ECM still pushing a southerly just after xmas:



850s of 8-10c at the end of December is just a tad ridiculous though....we spent a good chunk of the first part of last summer chasing 850s that good!

[Methuselah]

However, lest we get a tad too sanguine (guilty as charged!) the 00Z ensembles do contain some scatter:

    

    

Baby steps. More runs needed!?

[Jordan S]

31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh My (Sidney cover yer nuts!) the GFS 00Z at T+378 is a thing of beauty!

    

And it looks as if that pesky European heat-dome is finally about to evaporate...?

Looks cold you can see the evolution below from the Gfs in FI ofcourse.

A notable low pressure progged by the Ecmwf for Christmas eve.. Then higher pressure building in for Christmas day.. 

Gem similar bringing in a deep low not as vigorous as the Ecmwf makes it but very unsettled for Christmas eve if this is correct.. But similar to the Ecmwf albeit differences in detail as you'd expect builds higher pressure behind this for Christmas day.. 

GFS different just has the low as a sort of wave feature to the south of us with higher pressure already over us but the same as the other two builds high pressure into the UK for the big day so atm there's decent agreement on that but could change ofcourse.  

GFS.. 

Until then very wet and windy at times through this week before we get to Christmas. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by jordan smith

[Fairweather Teessider]

Love your posts Jordan. Keep it up mate!

[chris55]

Definite trend of something a bit cooler/colder towards the end of the month on GEFS over the past 24 hours

P10 shows what’s possible.....

 

[Dennis]

countdown started :14 days of this 2019 year to go;  and alot is seen between 23-27 dec for a patternchange

the position of the note on the chart shows HP progress

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Dennis

[Anthony Burden]

Charts still struggling over festive period mild to average best bet.Then a tendency for pressure to rise,where

is of course the key to all doors for cold lovers.

[johnholmes]

I've kept the EC 00z chart for the past 3 days and each one has been rather different, so not much solid guidance from it!

The first one is this morning and the second 2 days ago

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - ECMWF Europa 00Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten ECMWF Europa 00Z

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

However, lest we get a tad too sanguine (guilty as charged!) the 00Z ensembles do contain some scatter:

    

    

Baby steps. More runs needed!?

Why more runs, I cannot see any signal of any definite trend so why have more runs? Or is it the hope that cold will appear?

All the models of any type seem to be struggling to get any definite pattern beyond 7-10 days ahead.

At some point, unless this winter is going to be totally different to any before we will get at least a cold spell, be that the end of this month or sometime in January or February, or indeed March. 

[That ECM]

11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why more runs, I cannot see any signal of any definite trend so why have more runs? Or is it the hope that cold will appear?

All the models of any type seem to be struggling to get any definite pattern beyond 7-10 days ahead.

At some point, unless this winter is going to be totally different to any before we will get at least a cold spell, be that the end of this month or sometime in January or February, or indeed March. 

You need more runs John so as we can see a possible trend appear. To say we didn’t would suggest we know the direction we are heading

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why more runs, I cannot see any signal of any definite trend so why have more runs? Or is it the hope that cold will appear?

All the models of any type seem to be struggling to get any definite pattern beyond 7-10 days ahead.

At some point, unless this winter is going to be totally different to any before we will get at least a cold spell, be that the end of this month or sometime in January or February, or indeed March. 

That is exactly why you need more runs, i take that to mean whatever timeframe you are looking to predict has no definite trend, so surely that means more runs are needed before you can make a judgement?

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why more runs, I cannot see any signal of any definite trend so why have more runs? Or is it the hope that cold will appear?

All the models of any type seem to be struggling to get any definite pattern beyond 7-10 days ahead.

At some point, unless this winter is going to be totally different to any before we will get at least a cold spell, be that the end of this month or sometime in January or February, or indeed March. 

Hi John, I think that is a rhetorical question, at least knowing Ed's humour, and the emoji, it is my take!

More runs never hurt in the hunt for cold...

[jules216]

A quick update from me how things look for central EU, it looks like we will be building a momentum towards colder regime after 26.12, @Catacol few members have us under -20C in the long run, the initial cool down looks to be quite slow as we are building cold air from scratch. Foehn effect today from Alps will push temperatures up towards 18C, that is some way to reach -20C from there, sincere hope if we get some cold weather that UK can tap on to some too.

[booferking]

24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why more runs, I cannot see any signal of any definite trend so why have more runs? Or is it the hope that cold will appear?

All the models of any type seem to be struggling to get any definite pattern beyond 7-10 days ahead.

At some point, unless this winter is going to be totally different to any before we will get at least a cold spell, be that the end of this month or sometime in January or February, or indeed March. 

Sounds just like a met office weather outlook update not a scooby doo going forward.

[johnholmes]

Not done any copying for over a week although have kept tabs on the 3 outputs, this morning Tuesday 17 December shows

Ec-gfs and as over most days in past 8 some differences ec-gfs. This morning ec again shows a push of contour heights from sw Europe towards the uk, almost combining with the ever present nw euro/Russian high and a weak link towards the heights over parts of n America towards Greenland. There have been days when this link was quite pronounced with a system of low heights to its south. The low heights are mainly off n America with a suggestion of them e of the uk (on gfs) and a cut off (on ec) over central/east med. For the uk both show a w’ly flow but created by differing ridges and troughs as the charts show

Noaa, not too different from what it has shown over the past 2-3 days, has the major trough from the PV off nw Greenland with its attendant trough, fairly rounded, south of Greenland with +ve heights still showing from n Russia/Norway across to central Canada, giving a general w’ly atlantic flow into the uk, stronger in the south than the north. (is this a possible clue to further out?) Heights into the uk range from 534 dm over Scotland to 552 dm just s of the uk. So the air for the uk, on this noaa chart, and for a few days past, originates from different sources, real Pm in the north less so in the south?

The 8-14 shows the upper trough from the PV sharpening thus backing the atlantic flow into the uk to arrive from s of west, heights ranging from 540 dm in n Scotland to 558 dm just south of the uk.

This possibly suggesting a rather milder air into much of the country, with just a slight signal for ridging well e of the uk.

 

Summing up, to me, there is little indeed no signal for any cold air into the uk once this current coldish airmass clears later this week,  at least for 2 weeks? I never attempt to use these charts to go beyond 15-18 days.

Sorry if this is not what most folk want to read, just my honest attempt to use these charts to try and predict the overall weather pattern for 2 weeks ahead.

Copying into both main threads.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

[frosty ground]

43 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Summing up, to me, there is little indeed no signal for any cold air into the uk once this current coldish airmass clears later this week,  at least for 2 weeks? I never attempt to use these charts to go beyond 15-18 days.

 

The Ensembles and the operational have shown Cold air masses moving over the UK capable of producing snow over the last 7 days, so whilst a long deep cold spell is unlikely I wouldn't rule out a cold snap in week two. .



6z Run showing a cold airmass

Edited December 17, 2019 by frosty ground