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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


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Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit) Please revert back to his posts from

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!

Evening All- Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 ) What we have here is a clea

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10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes we really could do with the ridge being West of the UK but of course this initial ridge was initially modelled to be stronger and further West so let's hope it happens and there is less Atlantic forcing as currently modelled.

Nice to have something possibly developing in the output again.

The key timeframe is 144 hrs, just outside the reliable, if the trend of UKMO and GFS 18z is shown within the 96-120 hr timeframe in consecutive next runs, then the ridge building through europe more likely to be off the table, and instead ridge development to the west more likely as we crucially see the trough on a more easterly tracjectory and most importantly elongating - west-east, rather than north-south as shown by much output today including ECM. The change in position will enable heights to lower into europe and this is the key trigger.

 

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10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A white new year for most ?

 

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Exactly how many members are plotting......so I’d personally reckon a lot of raw/operational interpretation coming through the suites from here on. Again the turn of the year looking very ripe via exactions,,,

 

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Apart from SW Britain and Northern Ireland, the entire country covered in snow. although gut wrenching for Irish snow fans both North and South - a complete blank - a dream for SCotland though.

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Standard “ north of the M4!!”?

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Many GFS solutions at the extreme end of the UKMO scenario - with a higher counter balance of Pressure over Iceland than expected at just 168

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Yes ridge development further south towards Iceland results in a change in the alignment of the trough so it become more stretched and west-east positioned and enables low heights to drop into europe aided by a forcing on the jet further south - it is subtle changes in the position of heights that can make a difference - the 'wedge' playing its hand.

 

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

After 12z GEFS suite, i would have said you would be stark raving bonkers if you thought the 18z would have been another upgrade - but can it???

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About half go for a wedge of some kind. About 5-6 hold promise.

Control is just straigh dirty however, really would view it in Incognito mode. 

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33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A white new year for most ?

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That bloody M4 corridor!! ?

EDIT:  Beaten to it!

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