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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


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Finally after almost 2 weeks of a mild ensemble in unison for the entire 2 weeks out we see some discord and colder solutions from Christmas eve onwards. 

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Edited by ArHu3
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Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit) Please revert back to his posts from

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!

Evening All- Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 ) What we have here is a clea

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33 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Finally after almost 2 weeks of a mild ensemble in unison for the entire 2 weeks out we see some discord and colder solutions from Christmas eve onwards. 

Screenshot_20191216-101425_Samsung Internet.jpg

I maybe wrong here but i would hazard the colder runs begin with the azores high ridging north.

A long shot IMO but likely the smallest straw to clutch..

 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Around half of the eps solutions have a strong surface blocking high in our part of the NH by the back end of week 2 .... pin the tail on the donkey for where it’s centred ...

I would say the centre of that high might be very close or just to the west of UK judging by this morning EPS for my location in Central Europe, increasing downward trend between 26.12 to 30.12 with some below -20C T2M members. From past we in Slovakia get the most surface cold on the back of UK based high example being January 2017. 

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17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Around half of the eps solutions have a strong surface blocking high in our part of the NH by the back end of week 2 .... pin the tail on the donkey for where it’s centred ...

Hehe better than watching the rain fall...and winter is only beginning. Still plenty to play for, but as with many games the result is rarely decided prior to half time and often the final quarter as the opposition tires sees key points scored. Let’s see how much energy the vortex has left come the second half...

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22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I would say the centre of that high might be very close or just to the west of UK judging by this morning EPS for my location in Central Europe, increasing downward trend between 26.12 to 30.12 with some below -20C T2M members. From past we in Slovakia get the most surface cold on the back of UK based high example being January 2017. 

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Yes. Wave activity from MJO emerging approx phase 6 to promote downstream ridging in and around the UK. Trough downstream over Eastern Europe. Eventually Jules we will want some of that cold air pulling back towards the UK...so crack on and start pooling those -20s and in a few weeks you can push them our way. We’ll need the ridge, when it collapses, to collapse over Western Europe though and not back into SE Europe and that might be tricky...

EPS ensemble anomalies all a bit muddled for Xmas still...but the one signal aspect coming through here is North Pacific / Scandy combination for another round of pepping away at the vortex. More misty intrigue...

image.thumb.png.e21cb8c08cda261409b39434e9e08ac8.png

 

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4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes. Wave activity from MJO emerging approx phase 6 to promote downstream ridging in and around the UK. Trough downstream over Eastern Europe. Eventually Jules we will want some of that cold air pulling back towards the UK...so crack on and start pooling those -20s and in a few weeks you can push them our way. We’ll need the ridge, when it collapses, to collapse over Western Europe though and not back into SE Europe and that might be tricky...

EPS ensemble anomalies all a bit muddled for Xmas still...but the one signal aspect coming through here is North Pacific / Scandy combination for another round of pepping away at the vortex. More misty intrigue...

image.thumb.png.e21cb8c08cda261409b39434e9e08ac8.png

 

GFS exactly asks that question where will the ridge collapse,this run might not send it to desired location, we need that troughing to hang in there in our vicinity in Central Europe, not only it could give some late Christmas snow but also more chance of backing west to you in UK

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Well, would you Adam and Eve it! Perhaps, just perhaps, a smidge of cold air might find a way into the mid-latitudes? No-wonder there's been so much snow-fall concentrated in certain areas, this winter; the warm-cold boundary has hardly been allowed to move?:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Whatever...it's always good to see some potential!:yahoo:

 

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39 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

This looks about broadly right to me, and sets a template for January....

 

Jet broadly aligned NW-SE digging through a trough across central parts of Europe. Wouldn't get too excited on the back of this for cold for some period of time however, and the trough alignment will become a real issue for much of the next month or so.

Do you think we will get rid of that cold pool in the Indian Ocean and what do you think about the chances of an SSW around 25th - 30th Jan?

 

That pattern on the EPS looks conducive to an SSW but could do with being a bit stronger anomalies in the Pacific.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think we will get rid of that cold pool in the Indian Ocean and what do you think about the chances of an SSW around 25th - 30th Jan?

 

That pattern on the EPS looks conducive to an SSW but could do with being a bit stronger anomalies in the Pacific.

 there is building one ....

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6 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/16/europe-on-the-long-term-16th-december/

Some -NAO prospects over the next few weeks, propped up by the -GLAAM orbit.

Then a +NAO forecast over much of January, per the descending SPV and it’s currently strong status.

Potentially another turn to a -NAO in February, on the back of another GWO cycle and a potential SSW.

Details of my outlooks in the link above ? 

@Snowy Hibbo in your blog you mention: Fair to say that the next two-three weeks are likely to feature more potential for cold and snowfall risks for the UK and Southern Europe.

But looking at anomalies over long range, it is not before 26.12 that any meaningful anomalies show anything remotely cold for snow for most of Continent. That would give us a window of opportunity between 27.12 and 06.01? Then you mention things will go zonal again until another chance in February earliest? That is about 10 days of potential blocking and then we have 3 weeks to salvage winter sometime in February. Great 

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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Snowy Hibbo in your blog you mention: Fair to say that the next two-three weeks are likely to feature more potential for cold and snowfall risks for the UK and Southern Europe.

But looking at anomalies over long range, it is not before 26.12 that any meaningful anomalies show anything remotely cold for snow for most of Continent. That would give us a window of opportunity between 27.12 and 06.01? Then you mention things will go zonal again until another chance in February earliest? That is about 10 days of potential blocking and then we have 3 weeks to salvage winter sometime in February. Great 

Yeah, last week of a December looking better and the first 10 days of January. I’m not promising anything, it’s just the drivers look more conducive to better cold and snowfall risks.

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P14 goes from a mild southerly flow to the mother of all blocks and a deep freeze in 5 days post Xmas, cherry picking as usual but it’s impressive to see such change in a short period of time. 

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Edited by Ali1977
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1 minute ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Yeah, last week of a December looking better and the first 10 days of January. I’m not promising anything, it’s just the drivers look more conducive to better cold and snowfall risks.

At least is better then nothing, along with @Glacier Point mentioning troughing to dominate January in vicinity of Central Europe, purely from IMBYish perspective it looks opposite to Euro High territory 

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7 minutes ago, Dennis said:

MJO looks better -into phase 8 over the next period - wintersetup with NNE Highpressure image.thumb.png.f43922b510e011c24bca1fa71284c0c7.png

The bias corrected looks even better with more amplitude into phase 7 and it looks much better than yesterday's outlook too

 

Today 

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Yesterday 

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Edited by ArHu3
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

what do you think about the chances of an SSW around 25th - 30th Jan?

 

 

That would be horrible, it usually takes 4-5 weeks before we see the effects of an SSW so the beginning of spring will be cold like last years. If we don't get one before 10th of january then so be it

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5 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

That would be horrible, it usually takes 4-5 weeks before we see the effects of an SSW so the beginning of spring will be cold like last years. If we don't get one before 10th of january then so be it

Yep, don't forget the very slow trickle down of last years one that set the path for months of -ve NAO and that rubbish late spring/early summer period especially. Don't want another of those thanks!

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47 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Yeah, last week of a December looking better and the first 10 days of January. I’m not promising anything, it’s just the drivers look more conducive to better cold and snowfall risks.

I don’t see enough Pacific forcing to turn the pattern sustainably snowy for the UK this month. It should work for Eastern Europe downstream of the ridging which is happening, but native lowland dwellers here know very well that it is difficult to get snow from anything other than a genuine undercut type scenario (bar the crazy Dec 2010 pattern when the arctic properly came to visit on a straight northerly...) Different for high ground and the north of Scotland of course.

Agree broadly with this synopsis. I suspect the ridge will flatten a bit quicker than you have it here, though if we are going to get more torque thrown into the setup then momentum may work to sustain it longer. Without GSDM data I’m handicapped in this reading. I’m also hoping the far end of the EC monthly is failing to see renewed Pacific forcing on the back of a weakened IO pattern. This IO thing surely can’t last forever! That being the case with luck less of a Euro slug in the second half of January though at that range nobody can be certain.

Thanks for the input once again Zac...

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