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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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Several posts moved to the moans/banter/chat thread.

Model discussion with some charts in here. 👍

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ECM 12Z looks weird to me, seems to be really high 850hpa temperatures for a low going in such a southerly direction ( 23/24 december)

Edited by Faronstream

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2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Control has a crazy hp right on us in FI

E11DBD03-E072-4785-9283-40149CAA86F8.png
 

As do many others, finally a change in sight???

295CEA18-49C8-4377-B149-5AEE34205BD1.png

376ACE6A-FF74-46D6-A226-090D73495762.png

5B83C722-8A9E-461E-9F60-79DE7D011F19.png

5365D3B6-CD89-4A09-B7BF-710D078ECB4A.png

24A94EEF-2935-4B6D-9D06-2396288E06E1.png

553EEF25-7C5D-4208-93AC-B5846A9D3FB0.png

CE3E752C-AFFC-48BE-B89F-F1B4102B5903.png

 

If I had to put money on it this is approx where I think we’ll end up. Forcing not enough to create a proper high lat block with return easterly, but sufficient to get up and over the UK and doing a bit to fire warmth into the vortex in the right kind of spot for long range benefit. 

Frost and fog by night....with the potential for temps to move above average by day in the west though wouldn’t rule out sufficient northern latitude to see off the warm draw. It’ll move around a bit after all.... Less wet. But a temporary spell, because once MJO forcing subsides the ridge will probably collapse and the storminess returns in January, for the first half approx. And then after that we’ll see what we shall see. 

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

So a quick summary of where the model output leaves us today:

  • The jet stream runs south and strong, GEM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.4c5108a50b40d05878539a8e817169eb.jpg

  • SSTs start to paint a different picture as cooler temperatures in the Atlantic look to be in a less favourable place:

image.thumb.jpg.cfe6809c34a01e4f95afc1132cc2e4df.jpg

  • The Indian Ocean has been boiled dry.
  • The mesosphere has conquered the stratosphere and now reigns supreme up above, (sorry cannot post charts).
  • yada, yada, yada...

From my point of view, notwithstanding the long range models, I felt that given the disorganisation of the trop vortex right into winter, there was a window for a cold spell.  But despite the various contorted trop vortex plots in FI in the op runs and ensemble members, nothing has landed, so I am waving the white flag for the moment.  This year is different to recent ones, for sure, but the southerly jet stream isn't enough, it would have to be weaker than it has turned out to be to give anything other than fleeting interest on the back edge of a low.  It's been an interesting learning experience for me, for sure, a different type of winter setup, but sadly equally lacking in snow potential.  

Have a good Christmas everyone and hope things improve in the new year.

Regards

Mike

Is there a bit of reverse psychology in that post? 🙂

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Unusual warmth for early next week across most of Euroland with huge 2m +temp anoms. British Isles and Iberian peninsula colder in comparison again.

C

2mtemp_anom_20191215_12_048.jpg

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Good evening peeps 😊

My second post for today hope everyone is well and you all have had a good Sunday, it's managed to stay dry for the good part of the day here in Walthamstow that's untill this evening when a few showers have cropped up.

Most of next week looks the same with the wind and rain at times and some dry interludes as well. Some of us may be getting away  with one or two dry days. This however is not set in stone as our weather pattern is so changeable at the moment and changes can come in a small amount of time. What is getting us coldies quite frustrated at the moment is the lack of cold and any wintryness.

 To be honest I did not have any high expectations for any proper cold to come before Christmas the reason for this may be that I have not seen any worthwhile highl latitude blocking that may have encouraged cold to head west or from the north directly at us and be potent in nature. Also again I would like to highlight the point regarding European temperatures. They have not been exceptionally cold infect a lot of places have been exceptionally mild for the time of year.  This is something that will be worth keeping an eye on over the coming days and weeks.

With all the above at the end of the day our weather on our small island is so unpredictable and I am sure many a times we have seen flips happen overnight. It does make you think we must be so unlucky why is it when the models are showing cold weather coming and then they flip back to mild and drown us coldies in frustration. Would it be so nice for once if they flip the other way from mild to cold we don't often see that happen. 

Anway it's still A waiting game. Who knows in the coming days there may be a surprise for us and the models will  show something us coldies have been waiting for and in the nearer imeframe .

 We will always just try to shrug of our frustration and the love for Mr snow will always bring us back here for the next chase .

Wishing you all a lovely evening

The search for a winter wonderland continues

 All the best 😊😊😊😊

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9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Unusual warmth for early next week across most of Euroland with huge 2m +temp anoms. British Isles and Iberian peninsula colder in comparison again.

C

2mtemp_anom_20191215_12_048.jpg

This was the broad set up for a few of the LRF’s from the bureau’s .....

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horrible gfs 18z you can tell anyway as no comments on it.!

Low pressure stuck in atlantic throwing up mild sw winds because of high pressure  over parts of Europe,very common pressure pattern for dec,please a change for the new year.

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At least that hurricane isn't there on the 18z Christmas list..

gfsnh-0-252.thumb.png.a756f3bd21a6487afdfbe7be8499e470.pnggfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.9ff6dfaa0cb338161787d0c55a5be895.png

i would take the 18z simply for the drying out but there is no credibility in the models at that range and there is still a whole range of possibilities regarding Christmas week.  

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A really dull GFS run to look at until at least D10 but if it's any consolation at least we see some chilly uppers moving in on Christmas Day for the briefest of times

image.thumb.png.4a7a4ec2a3ad7f195105e8a6b5bb46b1.png

Need a good set of ensembles as the previous set really did like the idea of milder weather to me

image.thumb.png.9bed0821eb467e611b643b2d0c2625a3.png

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I'm still hunting for cold but i feel this kind of chart (GEM day 10) is about the best we can hope for for the big day- its not cold by any stretch but it looks dry.

caveat being its day 10

image.thumb.png.7c25a56f0d1067b4d86709cdbee256aa.png

I doubt it will lead to anything really, the big blue blob to the left (Atlantic energy) just won't allow for it .

GFS similar at day 10 

image.thumb.png.0af548609bef54dedbbc4724b55f3e6e.png

PS Sorry to the mods for any moaning type posts by myself over recent days, its so hard to keep objective in the face of such dreadful weather and models at the moment,if i never see a Dec like this again it will be too soon.

Edited by northwestsnow

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The Control on the 0z highlights what Catacol was musing about the last few days:

anim_ucq3.gif

Backed up by some GEFS. Up to D16 on this run, unfavourable for a direct hit of cold to the UK on nearly all ensembles:

Mean at D15>>gensnh-21-0-348.thumb.png.9471cd1d5d9fcf7046cddb5ccf98b2e3.png

See if this is replicated and can hold on for 9-10 days watching to see if it verifies! Again we have to hope this is yet not another cold to all mid-lats apart from our little island:

Control D15>>gensnh-0-0-336.thumb.png.d11621dd39953b112b513c44a098c32c.png

All the usual caveats, disclaimers and JFF rhetoric.

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When was the last time we had a nw euro height rise which was predicted and struck ??

Post Xmas we could see this .........but then again.........and even if we do, will it be fairly transient as settles elsewhere ........

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Not much to really add this morning. No white Xmas for most (perhaps a few flakes over higher ground), all of the GFS, ECM and GEM have high pressure starting to move in for Boxing day:

image.thumb.png.2007e0c1d86df63ff06f5e9098e5a110.pngimage.thumb.png.d054878bca0efe8a318e55c445e818c4.pngimage.thumb.png.05f145b6e84caebca69db5e21f502bc3.png
 

Edited by mb018538

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Over the last 24 hours there seems to be growing support for Xmas week to bring about some kind of drying out process with heights building from an unfavourable position for those seeking anything potentially wintry. This whole theme very evident again following the overnight runs with signs of the jet stream being pushed further north courtesy of those Iberian heights. 

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Some fairly heavy Snow at times likely to develop for parts of central and northern Scotland today especially on high ground but like I said yesterday likely some to lower levels too which could accumulate in places especially during the afternoon into the evening but remaining a wintry mix towards the far west and north of Scotland.. 

Anyway some focus on the weather front pushing north into the southeast later today through this evening overnight clearing by the middle of tomorrow there's already areas of rain leftover from yesterday this will continue for the far southeast today and this will be replaced by more persistent and heavy rain later. 

Gem.. 

IMG_20191216_074719.thumb.jpg.ee8151db5b7895456c4b596a1678e105.jpg

IMG_20191216_074739.thumb.jpg.2227c1e0ec2566188337be1d32541a89.jpg

There's still some uncertainty in regards to how far north and west it could reach some models just graze the far southeast for the entire time others bring it further in. Either scenario Its looking very wet for the southeast of England with accumulated rainfall of perhaps as much as 20-30mm in a few places likely causing flooding issues.. a likely wave developing on it too during tonight which would aid in a more northwest tilt to it bringing that rain possibly into more of England and ofcourse there's quite cold air sat across the country so if it pushes northwest enough there may be some sleet/wet snow for higher ground especially but it's unlikely.

Anyway here's the Hirlam's take on things.. 

619103952_00_18_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.6cb1118e9486c1d1151ae54cbdd6a888.png

00_23_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.e23c9b157f0e40545881c6273b1ae135.png

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186760261_00_32_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.9e692df1e8862ef21b91abdc64bb4639.png

Arpege.. 

00_26_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.6b629380c0104b37ccad179f329424bd.png

00_32_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.91a4eb5af7c1dc9aa38349c7a622a054.png

Icon.. 

00_18_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.2e46691f4e5faab895ca1327ea4972d9.png

00_24_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.d0146fd69f10fb335411d3d1ac4aef52.png

00_33_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.edbb401b3f7e442ddd6aa523ef535158.png

Looking at the Gfs ensembles the very unsettled theme looks to continue for a while yet with a fair few rainfall spikes perhaps a drying trend beyond 10 days away but that's speculative as they've done this a few times to end up being very wet aswell but obviously the very unsettled spell has got to end at some point so something to watch. Upper air Temperatures around average now then above average with mild southerly winds midweek then a decline close to the average

GFS ensembles. 

1111033271_ens_image(2).thumb.png.6bd7e1e39b781256d587ceb1d595841e.png

Edited by jordan smith

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Dreadful model runs for cold and snow lovers.

Despite the low solar minimim,  ever present -AO and now -eqbo we remain in an unsettled period.

 

Edited by Paul

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11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful model runs for cold and snow lovers.

Despite the low solar minimim,  ever present -AO and now -eqbo we remain in an unsettled period.

Maybe things will improve in February.

yes it looks nothing is working at the moment.....very sad 😥 

anyway it can chance very fast  = i saw a forecast like this with an upcoming scandi high last days of this month                                      image.thumb.png.9caacb40d1583b35ac4d465d38869c62.pngimage.thumb.png.d995d77a2c3a7dc2c6d7173a38da3ceb.png

Edited by Dennis

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27 minutes ago, Dennis said:

yes it looks nothing is working at the moment.....very sad 😥 

anyway it can chance very fast  = i saw a forecast like this with an upcoming scandi high last days of this month                                      image.thumb.png.9caacb40d1583b35ac4d465d38869c62.pngimage.thumb.png.d995d77a2c3a7dc2c6d7173a38da3ceb.png

right so we have gefs knife edge easterly<

unlikely as parts of vortex get thrown out eastern usa.

as for the neg nao that would be due to the weak blocking around western greenland/eastern seaboard of the usa. 

west based nao never really been a friend for the uk coldie crew.

however there is large scatter but raw data doesnt really support anything truely wintry.

ecm and gfs are uninterested in blocking more zonal perhapes interchanging with dryer moments with height from the azores running through southern england.

however the north still will get the lions share of wintry weather for awhile,

a northwesterly will be the main feed of cold for the north.

so the search for sustained cold continues for the south.

676421730_gens-0-1-300(1).thumb.png.0fc2799c6882622afd178de7851dec0b.png

ecm is not interested.

InkedECH1-240.thumb.gif.9cad8004a6d0bbe5c73468fb0125a6b2.gif

jma has a zonal cold snap way out in lala land.

and gem settling down colder with night frost especially in the western uk.

J264-7.thumb.gif.78566471ac4035d5361e0a4e22bb4348.gif656608042_gem-0-240(4).thumb.png.4d1ee9b8f9176492d982a23f770a8e8f.png

 

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

right so we have gefs knife edge easterly<

unlikely as parts of vortex get thrown out eastern usa.

as for the neg nao that would be due to the weak blocking around western greenland/eastern seaboard of the usa. 

west based nao never really been a friend for the uk coldie crew.

however there is large scatter but raw data doesnt really support anything truely wintry.

ecm and gfs are uninterested in blocking more zonal perhapes interchanging with dryer moments with height from the azores running through southern england.

however the north still will get the lions share of wintry weather for awhile,

a northwesterly will be the main feed of cold for the north.

so the search for sustained cold continues for the south.

676421730_gens-0-1-300(1).thumb.png.0fc2799c6882622afd178de7851dec0b.png

ecm is not interested.

InkedECH1-240.thumb.gif.9cad8004a6d0bbe5c73468fb0125a6b2.gif

 

there is a big 24h forecast problem - did you saw EC0z yesterday?

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6 minutes ago, Dennis said:

there is a big 24h forecast problem - did you saw EC0z yesterday?

yesterdays ec ensembles i looked at and there is some wild outputs erratically flipping. 

them russian heights are just holding that vortex together over the pole.

inturn this just rinse and repeat.

but not a colder rinse and repeat.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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