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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Leaving aside the potential for snow - isn't it remarkable to see both the GFS and ECM consistently producing this runner low at beyond D8? 

ECM1-216.GIF?03-0

Typically the models struggle with height rises / separation over the Atlantic but even so, the key profile means a rising chance of a short sharp injection of cold from midweek onwards. 

Great to see an agreement on a deep trough close to the U.K. with secondary systems running south of the U.K. 850s don’t need to be amazing away from coastal areas.

i guess the danger at the moment is a slight westwards shift and it is a wet U.K. trough instead of a snowy one.

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ECM vs GFS at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c75ce41e08cb219b871de08c006e72b9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.dc16f0dc1fa167b16c436762b69f792f.jpg

ECM not as extreme with the southerly tracking jet, and I know which one I'd want for UK snow potential, ECM every time.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

We're three days in to Winter...

Yes and well below average.....And most have gone for mild December.......so as I said....at this rate meaning ‘if it continues’, most will fail.  How on Earth will Jan and Feb be more accurate than Dec?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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BRrrrrrrr looking forward to checking for snowfall when the charts on weather.us are available @Met4Cast can you share anything re snow fall? 

A3A61845-1E39-4E65-997B-CCD9223DF966.png

F848F44A-A9F1-45D5-89AC-30F19766D13E.png

D9EFC36F-98F6-4E9B-A2B2-967AF613C16F.png

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A  couple of posts already moved across. If all you want to do is post a chart with one word, head over to the banter thread. 

Cheers.

 

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I know, I know, it's day 10...HOWEVER a cracking northerly looking increasingly likely. The pattern will just flatten out though at day 11-12 if we go by this frame as gospel. 

image.thumb.png.27c2310f78340754be4cec0c43c76133.png

Edited by PerfectStorm

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And the day ten,what a beaut.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.f738c415f44b4375a30b9c8e29325dc6.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.18e447766b63d6640ca4c827550d232e.gif

and following the gfs in similar fashion.

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.d1c4639ec11dcafc6ebc8a0e90d4e85d.png

 

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UK bathed in reasonable   -upper airs...

And you have to feel with such evolvement....these could prove yet more fruitful...as we gain!!!

ECM0-240.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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THAT ECM?

No, THIS ECM.

image.thumb.png.00646356e6d074119c309ad75647362a.png

We've got 2/3 of the big hitters going for broadly the same evolution here, with the trigger occurring around +120h.  And to be frank, if I was told that 1 of the "big 3" were showing a less promising set up, I'd be hoping to God that it was the UKMO at this sort of range.

Game on.    

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes and well below average.....And most have gone for mild December.......so as I said....at this rate meaning ‘if it continues’, most will fail.  How on Earth will Jan and Feb be more accurate than Dec?

 

BFTP

Well, what is showing in the output hasn't happened yet, and it's quite some distance away, But as usual, you're coming out with unjustified scrutiny.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Zooming into the UK thats snow showers feeding down all of the East coast with a trough popping up here& there

The perfect Northerly? Day 10

2C6B96CE-FF21-4DB6-8782-25E19894380A.thumb.jpeg.bb8069673f9575bef826f7b38e415e77.jpeg

 

Also the alignment of the jet similar to GFS 

Atlantic well to the west aligned towards Azores & Canaries means day 11 & 12 are default cold as well.

And with that ~512 dam air...the instability...the possibilities!  Absolute banker.  

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Can we please not discuss LRF's in this thread , Just Model Outputs please.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Zooming into the UK thats snow showers feeding down all of the East coast with a trough popping up here& there

The perfect Northerly? Day 10

2C6B96CE-FF21-4DB6-8782-25E19894380A.thumb.jpeg.bb8069673f9575bef826f7b38e415e77.jpeg

 

Also the alignment of the jet similar to GFS 

Atlantic well to the west aligned towards Azores & Canaries means day 11 & 12 are default cold as well.

Exactly the UK remains on the cold side of the Jet (East and North) and that jet profile through days 10-12 on GFS and ECM is very conducive to Scandi height rises which means if we get past the initial  trigger phases then cold should be locked in for a while.

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What a story the ECM could be telling here: Godzilla eats Meadowlark Lemon and becomes the greatest basketball-star the world has ever known...? Or, alternatively, the TPV is looking a wee bit stressed, at T+192.:cold:

34CD3DC8-EAB2-491D-AA05-A7177BB0AC31.thu

 

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UKMO will back down in the morning IMO...

It's had a brain fart ..

GFS/EC won't both be utterly wrong at 144...

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All hypothetical at that range but at 240hrs I don't see the pattern collapsing, there's to much troughing and cold air into Europe. 

The next low would just slide with an already meandering jet displaced further south. 

Screenshot_20191203_191415_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.fef2726b10da5911ef0bbee352003a2b.jpg

 

Screenshot_20191203_191431_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.00ab5e3a34076ec5df71285bb796843d.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

To add heat to the fire so to speak long-range forecast from the BBC mentions snow showers and bitter winds next week. Northerly look like a really good bet.

Game on ....

EC ext awaited with interest...

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Just trawling through supports geopotentials/ensembles/..

It's starting to look preety rock solid...

I'll chuck up some data and post later this evening..

 

What launguage would ya prefer !!? 😝😖😂😂

Welsh, please!

Seriously, I don't mind, I look at the charts in French anyway!

Anyway, JMA finished in Japanese with this

image.thumb.jpg.629ea613794cb5e8d556fd43cd2ec9bb.jpg

T192, that's all good...

Edited by Mike Poole

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Could be some drama on Election Day given the ECM and GFS outputs .

However the UKMO is much flatter at day 6 and doesn’t have that wedge of heights to the north which is needed to evolve in a more wintry way past that point .

So lots to keep an eye on over the next few days .

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Zooming into the UK thats snow showers feeding down all of the East coast with a trough popping up here& there

The perfect Northerly? Day 10

2C6B96CE-FF21-4DB6-8782-25E19894380A.thumb.jpeg.bb8069673f9575bef826f7b38e415e77.jpeg

 

Also the alignment of the jet similar to GFS 

Atlantic well to the west aligned towards Azores & Canaries means day 11 & 12 are default cold as well.

Incoming buzzwords..

North sea SST's...

Haven't look at them myself...

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