Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[knocker]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Pretty much how GP predicted in his post a couple of days ago. I suppose we better be prepared for much more rain to come.

The ext EPS was indicating it two or three days prior to that

[Sceptical]

According to the Met office, seasonal models are still showing a mild and slightly wetter winter for the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Sceptical said:

According to the Met office, seasonal models are still showing a mild and slightly wetter winter for the UK.

Yes - it updated the other day - showing a mean 6 month Westerly right out to June - i wonder if that will really happen?

[Northwest NI]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - it updated the other day - showing a mean 6 month Westerly right out to June - i wonder if that will really happen?

Of course it will.

If our weather was an animal, I’d put it down.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Northwest NI

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - it updated the other day - showing a mean 6 month Westerly right out to June - i wonder if that will really happen?

no only upto mid March, then northerlies and easterlies

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - it updated the other day - showing a mean 6 month Westerly right out to June - i wonder if that will really happen?

Although the EC weeklies are suggestive of a Scandy high later this month, i think.

If that proves to be accurate i'm hoping the ext eps start painting a better picture,soon.

ec mean.

Edited December 13, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

According to the Met office, seasonal models are still showing a mild and slightly wetter winter for the UK.

It's bound to happen  a full 6 months of mild and wet weather

[Laurence Hill]

5 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Of course it will.

If our weather was an animal, I’d put it down

Edited December 13, 2019 by Sharpedge
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[northwestsnow]

Good grief EURO4 is really quite snowy on sunday for much of central Britain!!!

I missed this while looking further ahead.

Not really heard much from the Pros to support that chart tho.

[Winter Hill]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good grief EURO4 is really quite snowy on sunday for much of central Britain!!!

I missed this while looking further ahead.

Not really heard much from the Pros to support that chart tho.

197m asl and down for sleet lol 
I know it’s computer generated but.... nowt special 

 

[blizzard81]

8 hours ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS was indicating it two or three days prior to that

I hope they cease to indicate this very soon.

[mb018538]

34 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS was indicating it two or three days prior to that

Exactly knocker - I don’t know why people are really that surprised. The ensembles haven’t really moved from what is going to happen. Just a few false hopes on very small probability outcomes being treated as more likely than they should have been...I’m sure we will see it again before the season is out.

[January Snowstorm]

I'm happy with the models tbh because there's plenty room for upgrades. At least the euro high is gone ( a ruination of many winters ) Proper trends for Christmas should become evident by Sunday or Monday so we still have time on our side. A seasonal Christmas is overdue!!

[jules216]

To show you how bad the EPS 12Z are, for 24.12 the mean is +2.4C T850, out of 51 ens.members the coldest member is at -5.5C, this is for location in Central Europe at altitide of 800m asl! This follows a 10 day spell where temperatures will be over 8C above average,yet another record breaking mild spell this year incoming for sure 99.9%

[fromey]

Thoughts!!

[snowray]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good grief EURO4 is really quite snowy on sunday for much of central Britain!!!

I missed this while looking further ahead.

Not really heard much from the Pros to support that chart tho.

Told you so.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, fromey said:

Thoughts!!

It’s Matt Hugo who was really excited late Nov?  Rightly so re model guidance at the time....then they pulled away....as they ‘may’ this time..

BUT HLB wasn’t anticipated this month, and won’t imo take hold either, but cold is still in the offng
 

BFTP

Edited December 13, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, fromey said:

Thoughts!!

Think that has been the general consensus for a few days tbh.hope reigns eternal but you can't polish a turd however much you try.plenty of time and hopefully the new year brings a big change and not just potential and this horrific rain!! 

Edited December 13, 2019 by swfc

[snowray]

52 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

197m asl and down for sleet lol 
I know it’s computer generated but.... nowt special 

 

Just have to wait and see I guess, -4/-5c uppers there for Sunday.

[snowray]

Probably a bit over done but look at this for Sunday morning, usually Euro 4 is quite stingy with snow accum.

Edited December 13, 2019 by snowray

[Jordan S]

Showery rain that's likely to move in to parts of central southern areas tomorrow may be wintry on higher ground if Hirlam is correct. 

Hirlam..

Edited December 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Probably a bit over done but look at this for Sunday morning, usually Euro 4 is quite stingy with snow accum.

That certainly does not tally up with the local text forecasts.

I assume euro4 is massively over doing it.

[Dennis]

ICON 18z 

[SMU]

Evening-

 

Appologies if ive missed many replies >>
 

As its stands this eve 

GFS Awful for cold / ECM poor for cold

GEFS V poor for cold>
 

Yet I would put all these aside & dismiss them all in favour of what the UKMO shows 

* That is how much I rate the UKMO over & above the rest especially GFS *
 

Best
S

Edited December 13, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Mapantz]

The UKV has backed away slightly, from the previous run. However, it is still showing some decent transient snow, mainly across high ground in the North. Lower levels are still in with a chance of seeing something wintry, but nothing significant.

The 'lying snow' chart points to high ground accumulations.