Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Mapantz]

Can we have a bit more substance to posts as to why something is sharper or awesome?! It doesn't help members trying to learn.

Thanks.

[snowray]

Come on Greeny high, build damn you!

Yes, you can do it!

Edited December 13, 2019 by snowray

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Come on Greeny high, build damn you!

I think the window of opportunity on the GFS 12z is between 90-130 hour mark with the low trying to go south east before it blows up and heights dropt to the north east

Edited December 13, 2019 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Awsome UKMO

Steve, please don't take it as a criticism but is it really awesome?

The 144 chart looks wet and surely that horrid low is just going end up stuck over the UK bringing yet more misery in the way of rain, and believe me, the almost constant rain is getting me down.

PS, if i am reading the chart wrong and you can see something colder or drier forthcoming please correct me,i would be delighted to be wrong in this instance!!

[tight isobar]

I'll take this as a starting grid...!!!!

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile, the GFS has gone in a different direction, and for me probably the wrong one given other output...T168:

Key question today, does the ECM follow the UKMO, I think it will, we will see...

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Steve, please don't take it as a criticism but is it really awesome?

The 144 chart looks wet and surely that horrid low is just going end up stuck over the UK bringing yet more misery in the way of rain, and believe me, the almost constant rain is getting me down.

PS, if i am reading the chart wrong and you can see something colder or drier forthcoming please correct me,i would be delighted to be wrong in this instance!!

It's classic slide...then override pal ..

Into block format territory...

So it's already...going up in class...'rapidly'!!=

Via evolution!!

[SnoFlakeEar]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Meanwhile, the GFS has gone in a different direction, and for me probably the wrong one given other output...T168:

Key question today, does the ECM follow the UKMO, I think it will, we will see...

So no doubt the GFS will prove to be correct!

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Steve, please don't take it as a criticism but is it really awesome?

The 144 chart looks wet and surely that horrid low is just going end up stuck over the UK bringing yet more misery in the way of rain, and believe me, the almost constant rain is getting me down.

PS, if i am reading the chart wrong and you can see something colder or drier forthcoming please correct me,i would be delighted to be wrong in this instance!!

I think atm we’re just looking at the breaking of eggs to create an omelette. Unfortunately to get rid of the heights in Europe we’re likely to endure some terrible weather. 

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Steve, please don't take it as a criticism but is it really awesome?

The 144 chart looks wet and surely that horrid low is just going end up stuck over the UK bringing yet more misery in the way of rain, and believe me, the almost constant rain is getting me down.

PS, if i am reading the chart wrong and you can see something colder or drier forthcoming please correct me,i would be delighted to be wrong in this instance!!

Its not about the actual 144 chart its about 168 > 192

The High is becoming more acute towards the Nw with each run ( on UKMO ) every incremental shift to a more acute High means an increased chance of deep cold moving SW out if Europe.

Await UKMO 168 tonight for better clarity

review March 2013 evolution for clarity

Edited December 13, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Mapantz]

Here's a snapshot from the UKV for early Sunday morning.

  

There may be some surprises of falling snow to lower levels!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

It's classic slide...then override pal ..

Into block format territory...

So it's already...going up in class...'rapidly'!!=

Via evolution!!

I know mate, but look what follows..

 

[Methuselah]

T+168, and all looking pretty mundane, but I'm sure there's oodles of potential there, somewhere...There usually is?

    

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I know mate, but look what follows..

 

But as Steve suggests...

We need to look @evolution iin time scales!!= it sets up then goes missing somewhat...that classic model UN-deciphering @such stage...and I cannot put the point across strong enough..that we are almost at a point of momentum gain of some perhaps eye watering synoptic...

Cross mod..

All the ingredients are there....the chefs just reading the method to cook it !!!

Edited December 13, 2019 by tight isobar

[swfc]

I think GFS at 192 looks poor.more rain and wind,no thanks enough already.can see the slight chance early on today's runs but potential and evolving can go on and on and on.unless it's going to get closer it's really all fi.onwards and upwards but rain ---- off

[tight isobar]

Well okay..Let's turn to the AMP queen @6 clock..to see if my model diagnosis are up to scratch..

Then perhaps get my point across.....better!!=

Or indeed 'otherwise'!!!

 

Ec 12z

Edited December 13, 2019 by tight isobar

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

T+168, and all looking pretty mundane, but I'm sure there's oodles of potential there, somewhere...There usually is?

    

But those are gfs charts,so if it’s got it wrong in the more reliable timeframe then these chars are pointless beyond t144

Edited December 13, 2019 by SLEETY

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think GFS at 192 looks poor.more rain and wind,no thanks enough already.can see the slight chance early on today's runs but potential and evolving can go on and on and on.unless it's going to get closer it's really all fi.onwards and upwards but rain ---- off

Its just like Dec 2015 round here, rain rain and more god damn rain, we got flooding round here today and i am not suprised.

UKMO 96 looks so full of promise, i can only assume the heights to the east are doing us no favors moving forward..

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

But those are gfs charts,so if it’s got it wrong in the more reliable timeframe then these chars are pointless beyond t144

hi sleety.you may have a point there but what if ukmo and EC etc are incorrect.not after a stats debate "kill me now" just a point 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its just like Dec 2015 round here, rain rain and more god damn rain, we got flooding round here today and i am not suprised.

UKMO 96 looks so full of promise, i can only assume the heights to the east are doing us no favors moving forward..

Yes mate same here.i think we could do with a block over the UK ATM.think barring the euro heights things may be better.that said these lows to the nw which look ok for sliding south east are just blowing up and giving us so much rain

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Below is post from Wed morning with models after moving towards/ following/joining the progress of UKMO, move 2 days on and added is UKMO at t72 from 12z today.....excellent consistency....reasons to be hopeful

Below we have ECM t144,, UKMO t144 and GFSt138.  Crucial point for me at this time frame, a good that may well lead to colder regime down the line.  Look all 3 have a trough over Spain......  not to our SW.  We then don’t see the SW/NE axis of the jet taking control and thus troughs disrupt and HP will pump up and build further north to out NE.  Imo ECM and UKMO Would/could lead to heights developing to the NE with undercut scenario.  
 

BFTP

Edited Wednesday at 09:27 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

 

 

added UKMO 12z today at t72

Edited December 13, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

And here we are at T+246, and I have potential from two opposing sources: cold/snowy, from the north; warm and pleasant, from the south. Neither would be a good bet!

    

Now I could write a Just-So story about how I might think it'll evolve...but, what's the point -- by the time the next lot of model-runs come out, all will be different, anywho!?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes mate same here.i think we could do with a block over the UK ATM.think barring the euro heights things may be better.that said these lows to the nw which look ok for sliding south east are just blowing up and giving us so much rain

In many ways i agree with Steve, the 144 UKMO has the low primed to dive SE , bit all previous guidance points to the Atlantic just ploughing the lows into the UK ...

I have gone past the point of caring in what form any sort of HP influence - cold or mild can make its presence felt.

Flooding is now happening,and it destroys peoples livelihoods..

[phil nw.]

GFS and UKMO up to T144hrs both show those +ve hts over the polar field but still the deep cold as i call it is generally held above 60N.

UKMO

The problem is there is currently little amplification around the whole hemisphere so although the -ve ao is enough to push the jet further south around  the UK locale we lack the amount of  ridging need to pull the Arctic cold south to lower latitudes. 

We stay in a fairly average to rather cold pattern with a ridge/trough Atlantic flow-just further south than normal.We can see some energy still running across Scandinavia and until the jet is blocked off or diverted further upstream then that Euro ridging will continue to ebb and flow.

At the moment that Canadian pv keeps replenishing the Atlantic.

 

[IDO]

It seems up to D10 there is simply no forcing from the tropics and although the tPV is weak allowing wedges to float in hi-lats, with no wave activity, getting any true blocking simply looks a no deal. We may get a wedge sliding over Greenland or Scandi but not a true block and mobile within the undercurrent of the background signal that has been miserable for real UK cold since Nov. Not even close getting a cold flow let alone sustained to the UK on the 12z.

We have seen many variations the last few days and nothing brings cold so unless something extraordinary happens cold looks off the menu pre-Christmas. D10 chart:

The tPV circling the Arctic high, minimal prospects of cold on this run into late FI. Look at the west to east HP cell flow from the Pacific, hopeless for mid or high lat blocking.

Of course, the 12z will be forgotten by the 18z but until we actually see a route to cold on an op run it isn't great for cold and until the UKMO shows post-7-days, any promise of those chart should be treated with caution as we have seen even by D10 the ECM is not that great. So not expecting cold till we get a more amplified pattern.