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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


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Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit) Please revert back to his posts from

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!

Evening All- Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 ) What we have here is a clea

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12 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

No point looking long term FI is around about 120 -144 at the moment. 

I made a mistake, I've been drinking..I meant the mid range onwards!!!.I'm not the brightest tool in the box but I certainly see encouraging signs from the models so far today from a coldie perspective!!?:shok:?

Edited by JON SNOW
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Good afternoon peeps ?

Hope you all are well on this Friday morning. The day started pretty damp here in East London Walthamstow, but now it has gradually brightened up and there is even some sun peeping through. Temperatures don't feel too bad although a tad nippy in the wind. 

So what is the latest on the models since I last posted a couple of days ago. Looks as if we are still stuck in this unsettled pattern and the next few days don't look different. The theme continuing I think with showers or longer spells of rain also some hint of the white stuff over high ground and maybe some lower levels further North. At this moment of time I am not confident that any place in the south will see any snow to lower levels, I imagine cold rain or hail in showers may well be the best ( but we never can be so confident).

I still stick with the thoughts in my post a few days ago that at the moment we are in a very changeable and volatile pattern of weather and trying to predict something 5 days away would be sticking my neck out.

I know today and yesterday there have been some posters (who with due respect are more knowledgeable than I am) hinting or saying that there are signs of a pattern change to something us coldies are waiting  for. Again from my eyes these predictions (who knows which may prove correct) are coming about by looking at the unreliable timeframes, I would again just like to add we have been here many times before and to avoid disappointment let's not get taken in with confidence on outcomes which are more than5 days ahead. If come next Friday and these charts are still churning out cold easterlies heading our way then yes the confidence in the outcome will increase. This pattern is changing day by day so let's just take it on a daily basis and see how this evolves, An important thing to watch is to see if European temperatures start dropping over the next week, if it is from here our cold is to come then the source of direction has to be cold. 

At the moment it's s patience game we need to watch developements in the  coming days. Who knows this may be another edge of the seat chase that comes to nothing or will our Siberian Express arrive only time will tell. 

in metreological terms we are on day 12 of winter today.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER ❄️ WONDERLAND CONTINUES

Wishing you all a great Friday and a safe weekend 

kind regards ????

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its looking ok up north down south awful.

models ramping up on more zonel germ building type weather.

both gfs models have flipped ideas in just one run.

but its not a done deal but confidence on northern blocking have dropped to 20% from 40% earlier this morning.

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5 minutes ago, Tony Beets said:

Anyone got the latest snow charts for this weekend please? Thanks 

I got these from the Gfs 6z operational ...hiccup:drunk:..nae bad innit!??❄❄❄

06_30_preciptype.thumb.png.fdf0a3f1c07992ce550bcf7253174783.png06_39_preciptype.thumb.png.8c5efa343efa70ca1f220227d8701014.png06_42_preciptype.thumb.png.9a1cad68d6c962e73587601944dfb95e.png

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7 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

I got these from the Gfs 6z operational ...hiccup:drunk:..nae bad innit!??❄❄❄

06_30_preciptype.thumb.png.fdf0a3f1c07992ce550bcf7253174783.png06_39_preciptype.thumb.png.8c5efa343efa70ca1f220227d8701014.png06_42_preciptype.thumb.png.9a1cad68d6c962e73587601944dfb95e.png

Bit early for a drink!!!??looks ok for high ground in north for sure be it transient

Edited by swfc
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22 minutes ago, snowray said:

While we await the 12z runs with bated breath with a cautious expectation of further upgrades, here's an update from out Italian friends at 3bmeteo that I follow regularly.

The charts show how they see things progressing as we go towards the 2nd half of winter. Looks like they are going for a Scandi high there and classic LP over Northern Italy, so if they are right things could be turning a lot colder with Beast from the East potential.

inverno-2019-20-scenario-seconda-parte-3bmeteo-97142.jpg

inverno-2019-20-anomalie-termiche-attese-3bmeteo-97194.jpg

I really hope this comes to fruitation snowray I really do my heart beats looking at this chart. Out of interest what has their forecasting reputation been in past winters would like to know.

all the best fingers crossed

regards ?

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2 minutes ago, E17boy said:

I really hope this comes to fruitation snowray I really do my heart beats looking at this chart. Out of interest what has their forecasting reputation been in past winters would like to know.

all the best fingers crossed

regards ?

A terrific outshot!=

Although the itl-met...as the French met...seems to favour-this outcome many winters!!..

 

Edited by tight isobar
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17 minutes ago, E17boy said:

I really hope this comes to fruitation snowray I really do my heart beats looking at this chart. Out of interest what has their forecasting reputation been in past winters would like to know.

all the best fingers crossed

regards ?

Hi E17boy.

Well I find them to be relatively good, there used to be some old meteorologist from the Italian Air force around that really knew their stuff but not seen them for a while, the younger forecasters seem ok. They see this colder set up more likely in the second half of winter and more in the way of Euro Heights to predominate for a while longer. My worry is that HP wont set up in a favourable location for us over Scandi and the cold ends up further south. I personally think that February will be the coldest month this winter, so a back ended winter. Of course It would be lovely though to get a decent easterly sooner rather than later.

Edited by snowray
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17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A terrific outshot!=

Although the itl-met...as the French met...seems to favour-this outcome many winters!!..

 

It's the position of the LP centered in the far North of Italy/Austria that I find interesting, when they show the low pressure further south around Sardinia or Southern Italy then it's too far south and the cold generally gets into Europe, Balkans/Greece but misses us. With LP that far north we should get a direct hit from any easterly. 

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52 minutes ago, snowray said:

While we await the 12z runs with bated breath with a cautious expectation of further upgrades, here's an update from out Italian friends at 3bmeteo that I follow regularly.

I think that's literally the first cold long range forecast I've seen made by a professional organisation, and not some bloke in his shed throwing sticks in the air. It's private company though rather than the Italian MetO.

 

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ICON 12z out and at T180 is looking good.

image.thumb.jpg.fa217d301b957caf8d48446aaa9a71d0.jpg

Inroads into the vortex, sliders to come possibly, and route to merge with Arctic high.  Good start to the afternoon model viewing...

Edited by Mike Poole
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26 minutes ago, snowray said:

Hi E17boy.

Well I find them to be relatively good, there used to be some old meteorologist from the Italian Air force around that really knew their stuff but not seen them for a while, the younger forecasters seem ok. They see this colder set up more likely in the second half of winter and more in the way of Euro Heights to predominate for a while longer. My worry is that HP wont set up in a favourable location for us over Scandi and the cold ends up further south. I personally think that February will be the coldest month this winter, so a back ended winter. Of course It would be lovely though to get a decent easterly sooner rather than later.

Hi snowray

Thanks for that, it does depend on where the high pressure sits to favour our little island, all the jigsaw pieces have to fall in the right place. I think back to the last beast from the East how memorable that was. I think it's just a game of patience for us coldies on here and even doing that does not guarantee  we will get the goods. All we can hope is that we fight our way through the current pattern we are stuck in let's digest this out and hopefully fingers crossed better things will be waiting on the horizon. Alas we wait all year with our hearts content and yet still get left waiting for the next wiinter. Hopefully Mr Snow will decide to accept our hospitality and pay us a visit soon. 

All the best

regards ?

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 12z out and at T180 is looking good.

image.thumb.jpg.fa217d301b957caf8d48446aaa9a71d0.jpg

Inroads into the vortex, sliders to come possibly, and route to merge with Arctic high.  Good start to the afternoon model viewing...

Big problem - the Euro high is slipping south east when we want it to be stretching north west to link arms with the arctic high. As a result, there is nothing to stop the atlantic low and if there was a next frame, I would expect it to be right on our door step unfortunately. 

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The Times that are synoptic-sync are beginning to get my juices flowing...

Why do I think...we may get the 'just correct' overheads..at the just correct time ...

Well simple...the evolution in order..

Xmas could be a banger!!!!!

 

Edit :Xmas 'period'...

Edited by tight isobar
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