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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

 with all due respect Steve these models not in the reliable timeframe if they were surely Exeter would have picked up on the signal yes they do go for some cold however next week mild is the forecast before it cools down again into the new year they are going for dry but temperature is above or shall I say slightly above average I may be wrong but the ECMD9 and 10 doesn’t look cold to me if I am wrong someone mate correct me. ☺️

A little saying I learned on here a while ago. 
 

Get the block in place and the cold will follow. As cold spells especially easterlies sometimes have the warm air advection over the UK but when the block moves north high enough and the lows begin to slide cold air begins to be dragged east.  Usually requiring a bit a luck to get right but it can still happen. 

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Looking at the 10 day mean, we see a gradual cooling after a milder interlude... The 14 day day mean also shows this cooling trend continues towards Xmas and perhaps beyond. Pressure also shows signs of increasing by this point to... So perhaps we lose this washout scenario, and replace it with some drier colder and perhaps, Frosty conditions.. Beyond that, hopefully we see some much colder Conditions, but far to early for me to speculate just yet... 🤞

 

 

graphe_ens3 (3).png

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12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is very close to something very special down the line. 

Screenshot_20191212-221620.png

Yes indeed!

Up she goes, want the high to move right up north into Scandi now. Can the low undercut though?

Inkedgfsnh-0-216_LI.jpg

Edited by snowray

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes indeed!

Up she goes, want the high to move right up north into Scandi now. Can the lows undercut though?

Inkedgfsnh-0-216_LI.jpg

Doesn't look like it's going to make it on this run but you wouldn't expect the pub run at plus 8 days to be that accurate 🙂

 

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25 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Surprised there's not a lot of posts for the 18z (must be the exit poll). An amazing turnaround (for now) - Scandi heights building nicely and low pressure system being deflected away. Can we get one riding under the block?

image.thumb.png.b7ddf58ceb1058140f2ff9ffe5d3c9db.png

That’s a massive swing to Scandi high and hopefully blue colours on the map 😳

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If @ 192 the next low doesn't just run NE but disrupts SE or splits its would have been a very a good run.

 

image.thumb.png.33b69a3871444b796b23528000bd8d8c.png

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The trough is disrupting SE on the control run at 180 and a fair few others doing the same

gensnh-0-1-180.thumb.png.d2b056a3ff08f06a3934fe86392eb437.png

for example,look at this beauty

P7

gensnh-7-1-180.thumb.png.aa2c6fb3c673716de467cc4c73b84957.png

 

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This at day 8 on P7 . My lucky number  😎

00298C2C-EED0-46B5-875A-C89981B388FF.png

B587D6C2-5C44-4E69-BD9E-6D76324D54A3.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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The control run could be epic towards the Christmas period with heights building in the Atlantic

and just as i mentioned it....

this chart for Christmas day but the colder uppers arrive later.

gensnh-0-1-300.thumb.png.68b4e59772496f056a7a4681850af91b.pnggensnh-0-0-312.thumb.png.92a5598bc608807d8cb3a9194fb06c95.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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There is going to be more colder ens into the Christmas period looking at the ens charts,they will be due out very soon.

edit:yes there is.

graphe3_1000_267_22___.thumb.png.0ee12e0f496f0ba97f4aea63b4c08135.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Wowzers p18 ant to shabby towards the end either ( JFF) . 

CF3A6C38-6A64-4E4E-8ED6-5B6A8F9FB2E2.png

CF9ECCC7-AD06-4498-9E33-E813D2D2752C.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run could be epic towards the Christmas period with heights building in the Atlantic

and just as i mentioned it....

this chart for Christmas day but the colder uppers arrive later.

gensnh-0-1-300.thumb.png.68b4e59772496f056a7a4681850af91b.pnggensnh-0-0-312.thumb.png.92a5598bc608807d8cb3a9194fb06c95.png

The control has been turning up some half decent runs around and after Christmas, fingers crossed that it switches with the operational run tomorrow. Goes to show that there's still a chance of a White Christmas!:santa-emoji:

gensnh-0-1-312.thumb.png.154f76a2040237dbda81e3778651aad3.pnggensnh-0-0-312.thumb.png.24f22f63b167a1d25bdeaeceb959eaae.png

Easterly there at the end of the run too.

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.a88affe1ef2b416977ef62b694894d74.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.87c71d85e39ad8c3ddb810a341d1ad21.png

Edited by snowray

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LOL.

and the best chart of the season so far...

p4

gensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.cbdf03942343ea0cd33449fa149efe8d.pnggensnh-4-0-384.thumb.png.fe87337112d3eb7350ba1f6775494218.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

LOL.

p4

gensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.cbdf03942343ea0cd33449fa149efe8d.pnggensnh-4-0-384.thumb.png.fe87337112d3eb7350ba1f6775494218.png

 

Wow don’t think I’ve ever seen a chart like that 😮. A big murr sausage. 

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ECM 12z ensemble clusters at T240, and T360:

image.thumb.jpg.3e3c386ea4c879c8702d25b0ced1ff86.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f4c1407d7c9ff451f106cff0adc8dcde.jpg

Does look like a strong signal for probably weak heights to the north T240, all a bit in the mix by T360, but I think that's beyond the range of predictability given very unusual synoptics (in my view).

Edited by Mike Poole

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does any one have the ECM 46 for today I am sure now it would take us to mid January and I wondered what it was showing for that time thank you

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Still a long way away from getting potent cold but at least we are starting to get towards a position by where if a suite does tend to favour a good 500mb setup, the 850's are getting towards potential pipe-bursting territory for the first time this year.

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5 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

does any one have the ECM 46 for today I am sure now it would take us to mid January and I wondered what it was showing for that time thank you

image.thumb.png.ecef604e199730724ddecab177bcf305.png

image.thumb.png.2317f1fc399a49ba787aaa88a1a73919.png

Decent - but all downhill after that im afraid - only weak signals though.

 

 

image.thumb.png.8e97a2cf1a96e0026e02d57e9f8d793f.png

image.png

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ICON 0z shows promise at the end of the run, 

image.thumb.jpg.b554983413123ea13e135974765a2479.jpg

Plenty of potential from there, with the high heights on offer to the north and the northwest, decent run...

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Nice looking UKMO, one of those times I wish we had access to 168 192 NH charts

UN144-21.GIF?13-05

Edited by Mucka

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Like the UKMO at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.f41afdfe6ce711a343efc1ee810a512a.jpg

Would like of course to see the next few days, but maybe the ECM will be in sync again and can help with that.

Need to sleep now after election 🙃

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