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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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there is some movement sse on ec but out in fi

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big changes on ec in fi,more runs needed after this mornings effort

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Comparing ECM 00z with 12z here is a better trend towards

 undercutting with the approaching LP

image.thumb.png.852a1e4e4565ee9c71275f63987003e0.png  v image.thumb.png.8725bdf4640470c1561bb9ef0d36520b.png

with the D10 chart looking full of 'potential'

image.thumb.png.5f8ee9355fe28ec01927684539f87149.png

NH

image.thumb.png.2a84044648990f361bd34ea49454cf24.png

Dare one compare to Jan 1987?

image.thumb.png.18c5650b2312d6ef5ddf2a775d037f5c.png

😉

Edited by Purga

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ECM T240 looks interesting although I doubt it will pan out quite like this.

image.thumb.jpg.b05ebd6476731f255c144e946f17731d.jpg

I think with this situation with the jet well south, and wedges of fairly weak high pressure in play, the orientation of the various features is absolutely crucial.  Uppers rubbish at this point:

image.thumb.jpg.d637bb055088ceb4fdb2aaa04b1df2c3.jpg

But could easily bring some cold in down the line from here.

Edited by Mike Poole

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PV shot to pieces on the ECM, pity it don't go out a bit further.😋

ECH1-240.png

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

there is the wedge bit stronger game on

.InkedECH1-216.thumb.gif.f4ad8776d657ee0545f31bbc6d1f1480.gif

its 9 days away

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That is crazy cold in N Scandinavia, wouldn’t take much of a change change to tap into that!! 

69E5BC86-C826-435A-850D-1F0A8A1AEB2C.png

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ECM 240hrs although open to change looking promising,depending on track of low.Signs of pressure rises to

the north or northeast.All along way out still but nice to see on charts.

 

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Ecm day 10 uppers... unfortunately we can hardly be further away from proper cold uppers for mid december, yes, looks great synoptically, but i think most on here are intereted in what hapens here, like mentioned this morning, as the current set up shows we are along way from getting proper cold uppers to the uk due to the gaggle of shortwaves to the north and north east.

 

 

ECMOPNH12_240_2.png

Edited by KTtom

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9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That is crazy cold in N Scandinavia, wouldn’t take much of a change change to tap into that!! 

69E5BC86-C826-435A-850D-1F0A8A1AEB2C.png

I love charts that show that sort of cold up around Scandi, can you imagine if that lot moved a 1,000 or so miles in our direction just in time for Christmas? Never know....as usual, more runs required.😄

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34 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

but wait theres more this could bring interesting times.

194176651_ECM1-216(3).thumb.gif.a61aab480404d178eab3dae5a6be5c34.gif

Unfortunately no cold air over Europe to tap into whether further into lala land it taps into a cold source is fairly mute.

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18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That is crazy cold in N Scandinavia, wouldn’t take much of a change change to tap into that!! 

69E5BC86-C826-435A-850D-1F0A8A1AEB2C.png

How unlucky are we nearly every year/time Scandi or Europe go cold.  I need a break from model watching already😂🤣😆

Few days off whilst the eye candy rolls closer for everyone 😉😬

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When you look at the whole of the northern hemisphere it really frustrates me to see the uk is always warmer than anywhere else in the same latitude, I no it’s all down to the Atlantic but how annoying is it lol.

wondering whether we may squeeze a few flakes out sat night although we are probably a little to far south here.

also imo there’s not much point in looking at day 9,10 and so on as small changes earlier on will make it irrelevant later in the run, yes I no trends and all that but how often do they verify? I think cold spells or snaps will pop up all of a sudden rather than countdown 

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ECM ensemble mean, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.3ff1766f73f017dfa12064bf10ca9c32.jpg

Strong support for the op and UKMO position, I think. T240:

image.thumb.jpg.7a95a774900326cdb5acf202838590f3.jpg

Support for height rises to NE, indicative of high heights somewhere over he pole, and (I think I made a comment last night also) purple rubbish well away from Greenland.  Will be interested to see the clusters, and as I'll be up watching the election, I will probably comment on them, later!

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As I said yesterday, the key features which remain in play is the fact the PV over Greenland especially will be weakening, the Arctic high developing over the pole with the possibility of it ridging towards Svalbard and the caver of a Euro high developing. 

Yes, we could have cold snowy charts appearing but it means little even if we do after 180 hours or so. Maybe it's one of those colder set ups could appear closer to the time when we least expect it? 

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23 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Models still toying with the idea of higher pressure development around Christmas time (as some others have also mentioned) lots more runs needed before any confidence in this and exact positioning will be key should it develop, some from tonight's GEM ensembles.

gens-12-1-384.thumb.png.3a22fe9eef5ea9e3b7d76e7e7e4df527.pnggensnh-16-1-384.thumb.png.b298582dc53599d05befce8804188ac3.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.8420beee16d76f4b1daaca4fcee89f8c.png 

Some of tonights GEM ensembles

gens-5-1-312.thumb.png.6551cdb116996d9095c52ecf7abf1168.pnggensnh-8-1-324.thumb.png.ea30f7c20ec6322eaa2f5023d5f98012.pnggensnh-15-1-288.thumb.png.a5520550e779cb6a4feedaeb8c3ee3e2.pnggensnh-15-1-384.thumb.png.a8d62680eda669620268cb73a6c94c8e.png 

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UKMO T168

ukm2.2019121912.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

 

Hard to tell on these charts, but close to the ECM, it would appear. 

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Several posts moved to the Winter moans/banter/chat thread. 👍

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All-

Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 )

What we have here is a clear case of a model backing away from the initial proposed continuation of the zonal flow to something potentially very amplified.

This transition is clearly demonstrated in the modality change of the AO taken from the 12z ECM operational.

E503CC4F-60FC-4F8C-BC08-6C9D30DD6C59.thumb.jpeg.c51b3335099b5daf0d7497020516a194.jpeg

It has to be said & earmarked at this very early stage that no-one can be certain of any outcome whether that be some deep seated easterly or a flattening of the pattern with no cold.

The ECM ( & GEM ) are picking up a transition signal & at day 9/10 may well continue to move fully through that transition to a scenario of what want ( a la 2013 ) or indeed stop short of Nirvana.

Whilst he was ridiculed on here for all the right reasons certainly the Ian brown phrase of if you cant see the train then its not coming-

Its great to see positive developments over the last 24 hours at 8/9/10 whilst the interim continues to show periodic snow events at localised levels over the UK...

An exciting few days to look forward to - All aboard the chase as it starts inline with the crimbo run in..

 with all due respect Steve these models not in the reliable timeframe if they were surely Exeter would have picked up on the signal yes they do go for some cold however next week mild is the forecast before it cools down again into the new year they are going for dry but temperature is above or shall I say slightly above average I may be wrong but the ECMD9 and 10 doesn’t look cold to me if I am wrong someone mate correct me. ☺️

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