Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Dennis]

GFS12z sees good snow ideas coming from WNW to Ireland and UK for the weekend

 

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS is always third in the pile ( sometimes 4th ) underneath UKMO > ECM. 

Of course

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm confused. Com... Half of the posters are pointing out how terrible it looks, and the other half saying it looks more promising! I'm siding with the happy camper group on this one... After taking a glance at the ECM mean, I thought perhaps tentative signs of a cooling off again by day 10...now after checking the extended out to day 14,that cooling continues and comes down to under 0C...thats an improvement for me, and long may it continue. 79 days of winter remaining .... Plenty of fight left in this old dog just yet..

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Sceptical]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm confused. Com... Half of the posters are pointing out how terrible it looks, and the other half saying it looks more promising! I'm siding with the happy camper group on this one... After taking a glance at the ECM mean, I thought perhaps tentative signs of a cooling off again by day 10...now after checking the extended out to day 14,that cooling continues and comes down to under 0C...thats an improvement for me, and long may it continue. 79 days of winter remaining .... Plenty of fight left in this old dog just yet..

The Met office have plumped for a milder outlook towards the end of next week. What is it they see, that this thread doesn't.....

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met office have plumped for a milder outlook towards the end of next week. What is it they see, that this thread doesn't.....

MOGREPS?

Also, I don't think anyone singing the praises of the ECM 12z are suggesting cold end of next week, many have commented on the mild air on offer, it is the period beyond that, slightly, that is of interest.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

MOGREPS?

Thing is Mike... What on earth were they seeing all of last winter... 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm confused. Com... Half of the posters are pointing out how terrible it looks, and the other half saying it looks more promising! I'm siding with the happy camper group on this one... 

It depends what angle posters are coming from. On face value there is no snowy narinia on offer on any run. What is interesting is the bigger picture and what ‘may’ happen with a few tweaks or what could happen following ..ie day 13 of ECM Synoptics. Without this speculation this thread would be dull for 90% of the year  

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

MOGREPS?

if they write that forecast based on MOGREPS most of the Uk should have had at least some snow by now according to that model  (if you read it 2 weeks ago! ) It’s certainly no magic model! 

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met office have plumped for a milder outlook towards the end of next week. What is it they see, that this thread doesn't.....

..the met chop and change there outlook more than my pal Shane changes he's girlfriend s.

And this is a broad scale out put discussion based thread...and to add a cold hunting one.

I prefer not to talk about snow chances rtf..until we are locked in to a cold patterns already!=

And most on here have guised a milder point...around your quote..

I'd rather talk/look/decipher real cold possibilities of a noted nature!.

But everyone has there forte/preferences/views...

What would this place...and indeed life be if that wasn't the case!?=

Anyway lots on the plate to ponder...especially if cold inference is your edge....and deeper into this month!!!

Edited December 11, 2019 by tight isobar

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met office have plumped for a milder outlook towards the end of next week. What is it they see, that this thread doesn't.....

Perhaps the Euro ridge affecting our weatherr which the models have strongly hinted at? As ever nothing is a gurantee at this range so all subject to change as this afternoons runs have hinted at. 

Nothing overly cold in the outlook either and that does need to be be emphasised also. 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met office have plumped for a milder outlook towards the end of next week. What is it they see, that this thread doesn't.....

Yes you would hope that the met and beeb would have an idea before putting out such outlandish forecasts?maybe there guided by the express!!!anyway general concensus across the board is unsettled and milder later next week

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met office have plumped for a milder outlook towards the end of next week. What is it they see, that this thread doesn't.....

There will be a Southerly flow pushing up mild air from france at the same time a low anchored to the North west of the UK will be trying to force that mild air away east - 

Some models with want to drag that milder air further North & West into the main part of the UK where as some like the UKMO raw keep the mild air MAINLY into the SE corner

 

[ArHu3]

EC control evolved to a bitter cold Christmas in the Netherlands but it's just a fi outlier of course

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

With phase 2 MJO conditions continuing the cool / cold zonality is likely to continue too, still some snowfall chances as we head over the next few days (especially over higher ground but possibly some wintry conditions in a few lower spots too) has been plenty of wintry showers across Scotland today and higher areas like Braemar and Cairngorms have had some snowfall.

Models still toying with the idea of higher pressure development around Christmas time (as some others have also mentioned) lots more runs needed before any confidence in this and exact positioning will be key should it develop, some from tonight's GEM ensembles.

 

[ICE COLD]

14 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

EC control evolved to a bitter cold Christmas in the Netherlands but it's just a fi outlier of course

Hi @ArHu3 have you got the charts for that control run please (or anyone else) . Would love to see how that run unfolded .

Edited December 11, 2019 by ICE COLD

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Hi @ArHu3 have you got the charts for that control run please (or anyone else) . Would love to how that run unfolded .

No just the graphs, you need a very subscription,  @knocker or @bluearmy might have access ...

[Jordan S]

There is the possibility of snow in places most likely for parts of the north especially but not necessarily confined to northern hills. 

First off a bit of focus on the heavy rain for tomorrow for England and Wales where 10-15mm is likely quite widely but if the Arome is correct as much as 20mm in a few places so some localised flooding possible.

9am..

11am..

12pm..

Arome accumulated rainfall chart..

On a side note Friday night could be very windy for southern parts and gales are a possibility Earlier updates from the Arpege brought very stormy conditions for the south with gusts over 70mph on Friday night but has moved away from that which was expected as it usually overdoes wind speeds and is further south with it now with gales restricted to the far southwest and the channel. Gfs was similar but toned it down a bit too But nevertheless it's something to watch closely as the track is uncertain and the intensity too. 

 Friday night Arpege..

Gfs brings the centre of a disturbance into southern UK on Saturday night giving the south a wintry mix of rain sleet and some snow this snow would be mostly on hills.

GFS precipitation type for Saturday night..

If it's further north like the Arpege shows then northern England would be the place that receives wintry weather although it would likely be more towards snow there.

Arpege.. 

GFS shows a heavy mix of rain sleet and snow for the Midlands and the southeast on Monday night but confidence is low with that and remember the Gfs loves to paint a whiter picture.  

Edited December 11, 2019 by jordan smith

[SMU]

Control run is identical to the 2013 charts I posted.

[Ice Day]

Evening all.  Well on the face of it, not the most inspiring of ECM runs, but I do agree with the more knowledgeable on there that this does give some cause for optimism.  Toggling between the two images, the evolution between 216 and 240 shows a burgeoning Arctic High, not much PV over its usual home in Canada and the PV in an all round sorry state.  I'd agree that days 12-13 based on the below could start to become very interesting.  However, at this range the usual caveats apply as these charts will be different in the morning, but if nothing else it gives us something to mull over for tomorrows runs.

  

[SMU]

JFF the control runs uppers for xmas day

-11c North Midlands 

-6c London

Snow for many

[Mike Poole]

There have been some contradictory posts tonight, particularly re the ECM, so here is a summary of where I think we stand tonight. 

• There is a period of mild wild and rainy weather to get through regardless of who wins the general election!
• Model consensus seems to be firming up on a very strong southerly jet, UKMO and ECM seem to send the the whole purple lot south at T144:

• Continuing with the ECM this suggests some big lows undercutting fairly weak ridges, T240:

• JMA jet stream illustrates the strong jet and, importantly, the direction, here T192:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have changed a bit over the last month, anomalies now first, this time November second:

• 3 points of note, first the Indian Ocean Dipole looks to be falling on its face, good news!  Second the northern eastern Pacific is getting cooler, this should help with the upstream pattern.  Finally, any pattern in the Atlantic is disappearing as it all now looks warm, this is a potential detriment to UK cold.  So, a mixed picture there, but probably on balance slightly positive for UK cold. 
• Finally, the strat.  Forget it for the moment, most models showing vortex intensification, upside: seems to be disconnected to the trop, GEFS T300 showing miriad mangled vortexes:

Have a good Election Day everyone!!

Regards

Mike

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

Latest AO trending & polar height anomaly from operational -

All good news really > AO tanking again.

[tight isobar]

Just quickly...for reasons of cold progression..

The temperature plots also painting 2 points...1=a deepening of cold to the north east....

2=and perhaps more importantly...that pooling/expansion talks up heights alignment to a desirable measure!!! Both going forward..and within the time scales.

Note our middle graph is latter part!!!

Edited December 11, 2019 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

JFF the control runs uppers for xmas day

-11c North Midlands 

-6c London

Snow for many

 

There was one member similar yesterday - an Easterly with the surface temperature on that London graph not getting above -2 to -3c all day.

Edited December 11, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hi @ArHu3 have you got the charts for that control run please (or anyone else) . Would love to see how that run unfolded .

Model charts for Europe (Temperature) | ECMWF/Global Euro HD (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF/Global Euro HD (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 12/26/2019, 12:00am of parameter "Temperature", model chart for map "Europe"