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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

The control is looking rather tasty for Christmas day.😍

gensnh-0-1-336.png

gensnh-0-0-336.png

Yer there’s a few beauts in the ens . No 20 is quite tasty too . 

2709CEFB-02DE-46C9-A92D-E530B1A92107.png

30F0E2BF-8ADF-43D6-A4AF-10CAF0E9B779.png

76A8B8B5-BB04-4E7C-B080-F8AC6604DFD7.png

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The control is in control for Christmas day😜

gensnh-0-1-348.thumb.png.6b0ec6b6d96552b4d35be629d4527bce.pnggensnh-0-0-348.thumb.png.6b4a07882e7609f4c28ba477b681a440.png

goes to look at the rest of the ens.

 

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But in the shorter term,Saturday might hold interest even as far south as London

my local/London.

graphe3_1000_264_27___.thumb.png.1bd38f3ed7db34954831552f36ce2d76.pnggraphe3_1000_314_144___.thumb.png.35c9feca1c0aab0552d5d48e0ea46a75.png

and also p 20 has a second warming appearing now.

gensnh-20-7-384.thumb.png.bb3f9ea2fc0bde68af7445c5cb680a93.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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I am quiet happy to sit this out over the next week or so to see if this hp cell that is developing in the models/ens for the festive period gains traction,and is of interest at the moment,meanwhile it's a turbulent week that could produce surprises in regards of snowfall esp further north you are but i wouldn't rule out further south too

also as some people have mentioned already that the models will not get a handle on proceedings with regards to heights in the arctic,these arctic hp cells are difficult to forecast,these little differences can have big impacts on the models past the reliable(120-144),i have viewed all of the models today/this evening and the placements of these hp cells vary quiet some.

enjoy the rest of your evening guys

laters. 

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A final one from me...

Christmas day 500mb height anomaly from the gefs,make of it what you will.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.thumb.png.a134a9accd865d9000b012ccf2be7662.png

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

A final one from me...

Christmas day 500mb height anomaly from the gefs,make of it what you will.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.thumb.png.a134a9accd865d9000b012ccf2be7662.png

It looks a LOT better than what we have currently!!

Hoping to see EC ens show something similar over the next few days.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It looks a LOT better than what we have currently!!

Hoping to see EC ens show something similar over the next few days.

Yes,obviously eps doesn't go out that far but just for the record here is day ten.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.8fb5233433a6fb8b5e5b2e42349ed336.png

a good EU hp cell there and like you say,we just have to see if and how far this pushes north in later runs.

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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

A final one from me...

Christmas day 500mb height anomaly from the gefs,make of it what you will.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.thumb.png.a134a9accd865d9000b012ccf2be7662.png

Bang on target. Decent vortex disrupting signature I’d say.

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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Bang on target. Decent vortex disrupting signature I’d say.

It is but lets just wait and see s4🙂

steady as she goes>hopefully neg soon.

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.0470a4a46086933e41d421f109c1076c.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.c12b8db43618161827da40c8ffbae02e.gif

 

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GFS plodding along oblivious to Arctic high pressure apparently. Either that or it knows something UKMO doesn't which would be a change.

UKMO/GFS 144 comparison

UN144-21.GIF?11-05gfsnh-0-144.png

 

UKMO looks pretty decent IMO with a strong ridge just W of Scandi likely to develop and Arctic high pressure.

 

 

Edited by Mucka

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Day 10 GFS is pretty awful, let’s hope FI shows something better!!

CB12E570-999A-4108-83B3-11E5B1D9BA6C.png
 

It certainly delivered a Scandy high - let’s hope a big jump in the ENS towards that.

FEA096AA-1615-4C30-81B1-BEA832014A8A.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Siberian high building at the end of GFS,let's hope it's start of a new trend,maybe ECM will show something similar later.Things slightly improving it seems.

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Awesome deep FI, Scandy/Siberian high and undercut attempt 

3ABC807F-44D0-4CEE-A6D1-2282F8F69F42.png

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GFS seemingly hell bent on providing us with some kind of anti-cyclone around Xmas - 

Of course it could revert back to a more unsettled scenario but a little momentum towards a chilly setup gathering momentum from this model..

image.thumb.png.779f8192ef884f3b41c3437b2bf73ef3.png

OK no bone shaking temps but certainly for the Midlands northwards Santa will need his woolies 🙂

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS seemingly hell bent on providing us with some kind of anti-cyclone around Xmas - 

Of course it could revert back to a more unsettled scenario but a little momentum towards a chilly setup gathering momentum from this model..

image.thumb.png.779f8192ef884f3b41c3437b2bf73ef3.png

OK no bone shaking temps but certainly for the Midlands northwards Santa will need his woolies 🙂

 

The Gefs ensembles think otherwise and keeping it unsettled throughout. Will find out more clues in the next day or so with the shortwave exiting America to see how much WAA is generated.

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9 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes I know all that as you well know.  I was asking @bluearmy if he could share any info on the ECM ensembles position on things.  Let's leave it there.

 

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The paywall model I use has a feature which shows variation run to run and there’s too much going on for my liking .......I don’t think specifics are particularly important given what we’re discussing at 10/14 days .....

The word I’m looking for is ‘fluid’

the nwp is too fluid for my liking .... it rarely pans out like that though it could .... too much spread in solutions through week 2 

the ecm op a perfect illustration as everything away from the general slackness across much of the polar field  struggles to gain traction .....nice run btw ....

Edited by bluearmy

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS seemingly hell bent on providing us with some kind of anti-cyclone around Xmas - 

Of course it could revert back to a more unsettled scenario but a little momentum towards a chilly setup gathering momentum from this model..

image.thumb.png.779f8192ef884f3b41c3437b2bf73ef3.png

OK no bone shaking temps but certainly for the Midlands northwards Santa will need his woolies 🙂

 

A few days further on from this and we’d be bone shaking though 🤞 A Deep freeze for New Year would do!! 

0F5140F3-1921-4583-9A07-8072B711F32B.jpeg

1201FBCB-A3CE-4E1D-8BDE-B1EA46E8AAEC.png

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39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

The word I’m looking for is ‘fluid’

the nwp is too fluid for my liking .... it rarely pans out like that though it could .... too much spread in solutions through week 2 

the ecm op a perfect illustration as everything away from the general slackness across much of the polar field  struggles to gain traction .....nice run btw ....

Are you referring to EC det Blue?

I nearly threw up when i looked at it..

image.thumb.png.c08c9854e1c591ebde54fd0f49945348.png

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When i saw the GFS op this morning i thought we were in business but its the best one of suite though, was hoping for 4 or 5 pipe-bursters in the GEFS suite.

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image.thumb.png.1a66163b8e9b410f7af3d282e630ad1d.pngnice snow oppurtunities for saturday - better than today 

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20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are you referring to EC det Blue?

I nearly threw up when i looked at it..

image.thumb.png.c08c9854e1c591ebde54fd0f49945348.png

Better going forward - to the North of the trough and at least it was trying to ubdercut even with a poorly shaped trough.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better going forward - to the North of the trough and at least it was trying to ubdercut even with a poorly shaped trough.

Maybe in hindsight i was a bit  dramatic - i think it relates to the fact i am thoroughly sick of rain, and day 10 looks another deluge.

 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe in hindsight i was a bit  dramatic - i think it relates to the fact i am thoroughly sick of rain, and day 10 looks another deluge.

 

To be honest there is only one option then and that is a move away from your current location.

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