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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Isn't that the PC way of saying (in a non-binary way) convection, feb?:oldlaugh:

Yes - Vertical lift - warm air rising because denser cold air above it - but we mean WAA in a straight line on the meteociel NH map , from about 50N right up to 80 or more N along 0 degrees longitude.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

the gefs are a very mixed bag and certainly not with interest ….. also noted is a recurving ex typhoon later week 2 which could put a fair amount of WAA into the polar field on the pacific side and lead to some fun and games  

image.thumb.png.85af2512f4eed6ee9767dafb70ca116a.png

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With one member's T850s dropping to a brass monkeys -13C, and another's reaching the dizzy heights of +14C, I feel a touch of scepticism, regarding today's GEFS 12Z ensembles...:shok:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

The difference between cold and warm solutions can sometimes be very narrow?:oldlaugh:

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Nothing to write home about on the EC 12z has expected I guess.just out of interest we have the jet going south  to the east and south to the west in the atlantic.uk is where it always seem to be ,know mans land !!!!

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GEFS 12z suite the absolute epitome of a mixed bag.

Interesting though. About a quarter go for trough disruption and some energy ejecting south into the Azores, starting around D9. They all go on to be the better members of the suite at the end.

gensnh-1-3-216.thumb.png.6d741c6ec92dd660417c51b8305ffe64.pnggensnh-1-1-228.thumb.png.64f93af4507e06fc66be7ae2f021e724.png

ECM toys with the notion too at D9...

ECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.774ad95ce21e5a5cbc863e7ea6080771.png

Edited by s4lancia

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I’m pretty happy with the day 10 ECM, the PV is really weak in many NH areas which isn’t really predicted going off some of the longer range models, so if we can get any WAA into it it’ll just fall apart!! 
The high forming to our East isn’t a bad thing, just need that lump of PV in the Atlantic to slide SE!  

82D72365-BB42-4DC9-B8D5-64AD063D713C.png

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Let's not ignore the short term, looking at the probabilistic ARPEGE ensembles, the maximum accumulated snow to T90 looks like this from the 6z runs:

image.thumb.jpg.52de28a6d4696f469ea8612445f36732.jpg

Thats at the extreme of the probability distribution according to that model, but I note there was some discussion that the potential for snow might have been underplayed in the near term. Potential maybe for surprises in the north and Wales at least.

Edited by Mike Poole

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46 minutes ago, swfc said:

Nothing to write home about on the EC 12z has expected I guess.just out of interest we have the jet going south  to the east and south to the west in the atlantic.uk is where it always seem to be ,know mans land !!!!

It's that blinking Euro slugs fault as usual. Funny how the models are always so remarkably consistent when they show Euro or Azores Highs in Winter months.🙄

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ECM ensemble mean, T144 and T240:

image.thumb.jpg.871243a7b8e688e40d09b93c44882302.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.48ecae729b78e71a0a685ef834931460.jpg

At T144, this looks quite good to be honest, if this pattern persisted, but of course it won't, it will move on.  T240, obviously everything smeared out on the mean, but there is hardly a signal for a rampant trop vortex over Greenland there, is there?  So much uncertainty, but still so much potential...

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30 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Time for some reverse psychology..wow what an amazing Ecm 12z operational ...I really hope it does turn much milder!👍:shok:😜

216_thickuk.thumb.png.018a1e51330db1db8b88f648c2f67580.png216_mslp850.thumb.png.824baf61d322adac0c03a86a94fe7023.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.b64275de2c4b4fde9e7cf683a733ae59.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.ddba55aa0ae687c7fe868f49e6b714f5.png240_thick.thumb.png.fbf8aeeeb3a2f96cfe277d13cd7536de.png

I’d much prefer that to what we have had so far this winter. Saves on the heating bills. If a cold spell comes then I’d obviously prefer that, but there’s no sign of one except for a couple of ensembles which have no chance of verifying.

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Pressure rise in Europe in 10 day range heading north east towards Scandinavia according to ECM.Anything 

possible at that range.Could be a very interesting Christmas.

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So we get a displaced Azores High (nicely out of the way towards the SW of the Azores but still end up with a potential 'heatwave'!

image.thumb.png.d73780406cd8e870cdca827106972765.png

I dunno whether to laugh or cry. Horrible stuff to be modelled just a few days before Christmas. We are certainly 'paying' for the joys of Decembers 2009 and 2010 from 2011 onwards

Edited by LRD

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GEFS 12z ensembles at T240:

gens_panel_vga1.png

It is worth keeping an eye on this as people start to make winter is over posts (start?they've  been at it for at least a month now!), this collection of charts indicates two things, first massive uncertainty by the time you get to T240, but also no coherent signal for organisation of the trop vortex at all, it is mangled on virtually all of them.  So we can take our eye off the stratosphere! the trop and strat are not looking connected in the foreseeable...so possibilities abound in the next few weeks, I think, after the very unsettled period over the next few days...

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Extended eps mean showing much less continuity than is usual past few runs 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps mean showing much less continuity than is usual past few runs 

Could you explain what you mean by continuity 

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7 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Could you explain what you mean by continuity 

I mean that eps extended mean anomoly usually changes relatively slowly over a few days whereas at the moment, some quite significant NH changes run to run 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

I mean that eps extended mean anomoly usually changes relatively slowly over a few days whereas at the moment, some quite significant NH changes run to run 

Thanks for clearing this up 

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I really don't get all this 'winter is over' malarkey...I mean, all it needs is for the TPV to self-destruct and a HP system, of Arctic origin, to centre itself (and adopt the perfect position) over Scandinavia and, hey presto! Piece of p1ss!:oldgood::oldgrin:

PS: Winter is most certainly not over. And it won't be over until the fat lady sings!

Edited by Ed Stone

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I mean that eps extended mean anomoly usually changes relatively slowly over a few days whereas at the moment, some quite significant NH changes run to run 

In what way, please, if you are able to say?

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17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps mean showing much less continuity than is usual past few runs 

Side note, i see Anthony Masiello is suggesting quite the opposite to a strong PV moving forward.

Im not keen on EC det or mean this evening TBH, hoping high pressure can block off this raging Arlantic in the christmas period.

Countdown now underway.

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Side note, i see Anthony Masiello is suggesting quite the opposite to a strong PV moving forward.

Im not keen on EC det or mean this evening TBH, hoping high pressure can block off this raging Arlantic in the christmas period.

Countdown now underway.

Forcing/blocking set to make a mockery of models...and it's certainly looking favourable for some kind of + format.

Were all scratching our heads. 20/12/2019 onwards...and anyone suggests 'otherwise' (exact-exaction)=deluded.

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