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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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So called snow event at current for the Midlands ? Won't last long as milder air comes in shortly after 

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4 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Snow event Sunday looking likely 😀

A chance of some snow, especially if you live over 100m ASL I imagine. Freezing level at around 200-300m for the south Midlands, uppers at around -5c!! 
I’d say the Northern Cotswolds would do ok with this if it happened , a long way off yet though. 

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Vortex in pieces, a piece still remains in a rubbish position to remain spitting lows across the Atlantic.

1351B2BF-F032-4850-829A-7D414B3BE918.png

E65B5977-4745-4102-80FD-520C0BFD7099.gif

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Day 9, where is all the cold weather you’re wondering !!! You’ve guessed it, the USA AGAIN!! Bitter over there with uppers in the -30s 😳

7D6B32AC-2D24-4D8F-A2ED-8D819A62553B.png

6BBDBCEE-9413-4B20-8FAD-60BC87184BC5.png

7CCA4BEB-3C11-44EE-9934-9292D234645F.png

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9, where is all the cold weather you’re wondering !!! You’ve guessed it, the USA AGAIN!! Bitter over there with uppers in the -30s 😳

 

6BBDBCEE-9413-4B20-8FAD-60BC87184BC5.png

 

Imagine that - -36c uppers about to move over the Great lakes.

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Deep FI at 312 but a Scandy high is on its way. 

A54761EF-E3D3-47FF-8915-C2FDBA213D7D.png

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Deep FI at 312 but a Scandy high is on its way. 

A54761EF-E3D3-47FF-8915-C2FDBA213D7D.png

suspect it will flatten out imo,at least a pre xmas frost

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Christmas Eve/Day is repeatedly being shown to feature a very mild S'ly with upper temps approaching 10c! At this rate the daffs will be out by mid Jan.

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It's fast becoming clear that any early season optimism for a cold winter is quickly diminishing by the day....blocking nowhere to be seen.  A SSW likely in order to save this winter would be the favoured call currently.

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Christmas Eve/Day is repeatedly being shown to feature a very mild S'ly with upper temps approaching 10c! At this rate the daffs will be out by mid Jan.

Getting nearer and nearer to neutrally tilted advection into the pole though with that scandi high, just need some help from the other side of the hemisphere, i am still going for a late Jan SSW - whether that would have effect on the trop quick enough to rescue it for you is entirely another matter though as i know you have strict criteria in terms of not liking cold spells that are too late in season.

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16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Deep FI at 312 but a Scandy high is on its way. 

A54761EF-E3D3-47FF-8915-C2FDBA213D7D.png

 

13 minutes ago, swfc said:

suspect it will flatten out imo,at least a pre xmas frost

reasonable based on current fi ens guidance (though more sceuro than scandi i'm afraid)

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GEM and GFS very different by day 7 with regards heights over the Arctic, GEM more like the UKMO I think.

7C2F53A1-0D58-4A17-A594-AF213ACF82C8.png

 

CD482FA1-2D9D-45A5-8EC2-FBF517792102.png

Edited by Ali1977

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1 hour ago, Beanz said:

I think the most important word in that post was 'if' 

Given we're 14 days (336hrs) away I think it's amazing that anybody would hang on a one model forecast alone..    

hi

it isnt 1 model run though, these charts have consistently suggested a retrogression of the mean upper trough sited initially to our east, then over us , eventually  to our west on a series of consecutive charts. As such their consistency suggests a strong likelyhood of pretty high accuracy  as John Holmes discovered when he studied the accuracy of these charts a while ago. It is now the method i employ myself as i want to know what is actually most likely to happen and not get lead up the garden path by inconsistent operational FI predictions.
I guess though if these charts were suggesting a cold spell, theyd be believed more...lol.. 🤔😙😄

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Just now, bluearmy said:

 

reasonable based on current fi ens guidance (though more sceuro than scandi i'm afraid)

Good things can come from a sceuro high Blue 🙂

 

Of course proceedings across the pond will have a bearing.

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Christmas Eve/Day is repeatedly being shown to feature a very mild S'ly with upper temps approaching 10c! At this rate the daffs will be out by mid Jan.

Indeed Crewe. If T+333 verifies (like I'll win the Lotto without even buying a ticket!) I might even volunteer, for the farm, on Xmas Eve!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Nowt beats a  warm day spent in Compost Corner👨‍🌾

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JFF - A HP cell somewhere close to the UK for Christmas Day the last two runs:

1083417444_gfsnh-0-360(1).thumb.png.27f808d5d22e1f9573155ab97bded7c3.png600446664_gfsnh-0-372(5).thumb.png.c011ef5d52aa9bb819b728c3c6ef0e3d.png

Other things of note are a more organised PV and ATM mild chances>cold chances. The regrouping of the tPV seems like a product of the Arctic wedge dissipating after D10.

Of course all subject to change and unlikely, even assuming the GFS has the Arctic wedge modelled well. This verification is even a more doubtful assumption looking at the D10 GEFS:

gens_panel_gea3.png

So we are heading for a potential pattern change and hopefully something more promising showing up in the next few days?

Edited by IDO
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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Suffering succatage, a new addition to the NW glossary 😮

Well i didn't wan't to use the phrase vertical advection as you would pick me up for that, correctly of course.

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22 minutes ago, Mr TOAD said:

Looks like the hunt for cold is definitely off.  See you in November 2020.

Please mods sort out these children.  Kill the thread for every adult

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well i didn't wan't to use the phrase vertical advection as you would pick me up for that, correctly of course.

Isn't that the PC way of saying (in a non-binary way) convection, feb?:oldlaugh:

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4 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

Please mods sort out these children.  Kill the thread for every adult

I agree, although i sympathize with anyone thoroughly fed up of the wind and rain.

FWIW i recommend people don't take GFS runs post 120hrs too seriously.

Its difficult to see a bona fide cold spell for christmas but a dry cool/surface cold spell is not out of the question IMO.

🙂

Edited by northwestsnow
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree, although i sympathize with anyone thoroughly fed up of the wind and rain.

FWIW i recommend people don't take GFS runs post 120hrs too seriously.

Its difficult to see a bona fide cold spell for christmas but a dry cool/surface cold spell is not out of the question IMO.

🙂

Yep. We need the raising heights from day 8 to be more in our vicinity as opposed to our south east. There is time for very favourable adjustments. Here's hoping. 

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