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Paul

Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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A rather interesting pattern shown by the Gfs in FI with a deep low moving towards us only to be stopped completely by a sudden pressure build ahead of it deflecting it south with a chilly Easterly breeze. 

400200301_EUROPE_PRMSL_264(1).thumb.jpg.932044cda8529cb7262e453a37b6b09e.jpg

726584708_EUROPE_PRMSL_276(1).thumb.jpg.329e65276e1cd62e6f1b595a67b31c7f.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_288.thumb.jpg.c97e89206952a8057318c99066a9e3a4.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_300.thumb.jpg.691145e677bd06e53aca869531ee4a27.jpg

1235053305_EUROPE_PRMSL_312(1).thumb.jpg.835b758002280b1e2bcda376a6696a56.jpg

1802632060_EUROPE_PRMSL_324(1).thumb.jpg.b4e382ae243f308589975d8e46eb4686.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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As we're perhaps firming up on some HP coming more into play by the end of the second week - it's not a surprise that there's going to be a couple of real, deep freezer GEFS members as some of these will host the HP in a favorable position for colder weather.

Main bet at the moment for that time frame would be something close to what the op is showing - HP to rise close to/over the country which could still mean some chilly ground temperatures indeed.

image.thumb.png.4745ea91d02950b5cee4d1bb7e511e27.png

image.thumb.png.00735194b6a1db8a05d90143da7b6952.png

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Just posted this in the tweets tread

here is the height anomaly for Christmas day from the 18z gefs

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.4d876f5a77ac80f22b249a469b944dfe.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_1.png
WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM

500mb Height Anomaly

it wouldn't take much tweaking to get that high further north,one to watch.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM day 9 mild southerlies but what at day 11/12....

C8DDF986-8C10-490F-ADA8-BDF3C0099CE4.thumb.png.e84659c0b9c80d1472cfaa40d9491b9b.png

Knowing our luck, probably more mild southerlies.

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UKMO and GFS quite different by 144, at least in the detail and areas that matter.

UN144-21.GIF?10-05gfsnh-0-144.png

GFS clearly much more progressive and flatter but also polar heights are lower. Which is right, any?

ICON somewhere in the middle perhaps but with the Arctic high a tad further SW than UKMO?

iconnh-0-144.png?10-00

Putting the squeeze on by FI, this is close to a very good chart, just needs the Atlantic trough to disrupt SE

iconnh-0-180.png?10-00

 

That's all getting into FI, a little closer tot eh reliable and this would be good for some in N England. All very marginal though for low ground.

iconeu_uk1-1-117-0.png?10-04

 

EDIT

GEM also has a Arctic high along with UKMO and ICON. It would be great if UKMO and GEM had it more toward Greenland like ICON though.

gemnh-0-144.png?00

 

Edited by Mucka

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Atlantic not having it all its own way on GFS ensembles day 10 examples below

gensnh-1-1-240.pnggensnh-2-1-240.pnggensnh-7-1-240.pnggensnh-14-1-240.pnggensnh-15-1-240.pnggensnh-16-1-240.png

Flash in the pan or pattern change 2nd half of Dec?

Certainly MetO forecast would have to change from zonal out to infinity.

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All JFF but 00z GFS has much more likeable run into Christmas and not a million miles from GP's update of yesterday.

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UKMO and GFS look similar to me, both edging colder.  ECM is poor for cold with Spring in mind.  The HP signal on ECM seems way too soon imo.  All charts have posted above, no need to multi post them.  GFS a cracking run and UKMO is a beauty as we move forward at t144 cold trough over us, a weak ridge in the Atlantic up to the arctic with a northerly moving in, and we await the Atlantic’s next move with the country in cold air.....and we want that model on board.

Anyone have the t168, would be good to see the trough over us moves further east to allow the northerly.......mind you, it seems also prudent to stay this side of the stormy Thurs, Fri, Sat period

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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I guess that, going forward, the dominance (or not) of any Eurotrash HP will have the greater impact on our weather? It does look a fair bit less-influential on this mornings GFS 00Z operational...🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, in any case, there's little in the ensembles worth getting over-excited about. Though, yesterday's 'smart money' could be poised, hovering over the toilet seat...?:shok:

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

image.thumb.png.0d3ada2138c5ca29ec33850f378c6d41.png    image.thumb.png.7d68e6f2cb3fa49ac5d795b50083d382.png

So, where there's uncertainty there's hope (and many a steaming pile of BS?) no doubt?:clap:

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Christmas still remains a bit of an unknown at the moment.

00Z runs not really offering much consensus as one would expect at the lead time still involved.

Personally i have reached the stage were i would be happy with any kind of high pressure - preferably a 'cold' high of course but after the very wet Autumn and the deluges this week i suppose i won't be on my own wanting a break from it.

The coming week may offer wintry potential for those with altitude (location dependent), perhaps NW Scotland will be the sweet spot but maybe hilly wales and NI will do well.(Euro4 not updated at the mo).

 

 

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Oh well. If we can't have cold, we might as well have a mild southerly instead? 

image.thumb.png.ccd666941e08e17ecd31b92ee9da0c13.pngimage.thumb.png.09abf3567816392c7fc38a23129cb897.png

GFS not really as interested, bringing the trough much closer:

image.thumb.png.cfc470ad264873cf11e943e426cbb9ae.png

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Agreed, It’s too far out to discuss Christmas Day weather with any credibility.  

I don’t see any improvement in the 00s for the next 5-7 days.  Snow charts being posted for the weekend as we all know will be massively overplaying the likely outcome (rain most places south of Derby) 

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1 minute ago, Beanz said:

Agreed, It’s too far out to discuss Christmas Day weather with any credibility.  

I don’t see any improvement in the 00s for the next 5-7 days.  Snow charts being posted for the weekend as we all know will be massively overplaying the likely outcome (rain most places south of Derby) 

Im well north of Derby and 200m ASL and i don't anticipate a single flake TBH...

I would prefer EC by day 9/10, the 850s are high but at this time of year i suspect temps will fall away (surface cold).

Watch somebody post EC temp charts in the mid teens now !! 😄

 

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Christmas still remains a bit of an unknown at the moment.

00Z runs not really offering much consensus as one would expect at the lead time still involved.

Personally i have reached the stage were i would be happy with any kind of high pressure - preferably a 'cold' high of course but after the very wet Autumn and the deluges this week i suppose i won't be on my own wanting a break from it.

The coming week may offer wintry potential for those with altitude (location dependent), perhaps NW Scotland will be the sweet spot but maybe hilly wales and NI will do well.(Euro4 not updated at the mo).

 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine EURO4 0.04° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones...

 

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Up till about D7/8 the models look on the same page but then diverge. This is replicated in the GEFS and highlights where the models are struggling:

anim_noa7.gif

Clearly the LP system that exits the US has a direct impact on the UK outcome according to the GEFS. So fluid as to whether the ECM or GFS ops are correct, GEM is in the middle and maybe closer to the solution?

Until this uncertainty is resolved FI is really JFF, however, the GEFS have nascent signs of a more amplified upstream right at the end of the runs so maybe a trend to watch?

Even with all models showing similar long-wave patterns for the next week, the finer details still vary, the GFS is best for snow chances, the UKMO and ECM vying for worse chances in that period. At T120 for example:

UW120-7.thumb.gif.8a0b6be35544af1725f5eb49c3965a26.gif877677101_gfs-1-120(1).thumb.png.801838a3dd359cc38192a60a778c3556.pngECM0-120.thumb.gif.d033332d1826988947048c62bf87222d.gif

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:
WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine EURO4 0.04° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones...

 

Link not working for me 😞

 

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45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I guess that, going forward, the dominance (or not) of any Eurotrash HP will have the greater impact on our weather? It does look a fair bit less-influential on this mornings GFS 00Z operational...🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, in any case, there's little in the ensembles worth getting over-excited about. Though, yesterday's 'smart money' could be poised, hovering over the toilet seat...?:shok:

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

image.thumb.png.0d3ada2138c5ca29ec33850f378c6d41.png    image.thumb.png.7d68e6f2cb3fa49ac5d795b50083d382.png

So, where there's uncertainty there's hope (and many a steaming pile of BS?) no doubt?:clap:

Exciting? - well looking at Thursdays pressure ensemble the phrase "Cabin Up" springs to mind :blink2:

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32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Link not working for me 😞

 

here is the wednesday forecast by euro4 image.thumb.png.56fc4a378fbd5af4b41fe64f867a60ee.png

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The GFS 00z was a definate improvement, again. Short term and long term. Less EU heights showing up over the whole GEFS suite, that would be a nice trend to see continue.

As for Christmas, there are signs that any mid term warm-up may not be too lasting, with interest in amongst the dross.

Too early yet to know if this is just noise or has some credibility of course. I have just posted the latest EC D10 wave2 chart in the strat thread, which, should it come to fruition, may help to throw a spanner in the vortex works as we head towards the end of the month.

 

Edited by s4lancia

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50 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Agreed, It’s too far out to discuss Christmas Day weather with any credibility.  

I don’t see any improvement in the 00s for the next 5-7 days.  Snow charts being posted for the weekend as we all know will be massively overplaying the likely outcome (rain most places south of Derby) 

Looking at the latest models for the weekend as it stands I’d say there’s a fair chance of snow further south than derby on high ground tbh, but we will see, it will probably all change come tomorrow lol

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