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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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Deep FI looks ok, sure we’ll have a good GEFS ENS FI.

2B114E25-7B2D-431D-B2AC-BF05BBADABB1.png

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16 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I'm more eagerly awaiting the GEFS ensembles than op runs at this current moment in time - got a feeling most GFS ops for the next 5 days or so are going to churn up some stinky looking charts - have a feeling that any 'change' towards the Christmas period will be picked up by the ensembles first.

image.thumb.png.b8ea485ac877ec21e3d3414c0e31ac28.png

That above isn't particularly nice to look at though!

Definitely the way things are going. Euro heights plus mid Atlantic low. 

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Is this, bearing in mind possible MJO-developments, real cause for optimism? Or is it just another quasi-random flap, by the GFS?:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

More runs needed?:shok:

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The mean isn’t particularly cold, but at-least heights Aren’t really showing in the Med. There are a handful of cold runs again but nothing to write home about!!

4C6AA2CB-96BF-4A97-9E4E-EA735F02746A.png
The control is one of the better prospects.

9DF93140-98E5-4ABD-88BB-6F220223CFE8.png

Edited by Ali1977

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is this, bearing in mind possible MJO-developments, real cause for optimism? Or is it just another quasi-random flap, by the GFS?:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

More runs needed?:shok:

Ties in with what GP was saying earlier ..ie UK high..could be slightly east or west of us....

DD6C8630-5D81-43B9-841E-5222A73FBB02.png

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The UKMO this evening looks positive, just need to nudge the low heights further South on t144 and we're in business in UK as a whole and not just Scotland.

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1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The UKMO this evening looks positive, just need to nudge the low heights further South on t144 and we're in business in UK as a whole and not just Scotland.

Yes, It's also sending that low SE instead of E on friday (96H) which could bring some brief cooler air and maybe snow even to lower levels on it's back edge. 

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Here is the Gavin January!! - near 8c January anyone???

image.thumb.png.c463f683b7db264e107ffd549b91cf4b.png

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little to hang a hat on for coldies but cant see any appetite to maintain a strong tpv in week 2

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the Gavin January!! - near 8c January anyone???

image.thumb.png.c463f683b7db264e107ffd549b91cf4b.png

? what's that mean? don't mind that though as long as it's dry

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

? what's that mean? don't mind that though as long as it's dry

Its a Bartlett so dry in the south - mean must be 7-8c as the norm is 3.9 for Jan and that anom is nearly 4 in parts.

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a Bartlett so dry in the south - mean must be 7-8c as the norm is 3.9 for Jan and that anom is nearly 4 in parts.

I know, but is that what Gavin P has forecast for January?

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I know, but is that what Gavin P has forecast for January?

No i was on about SS. - can't remember what Gavin P has forecast but don't think anything dreadfully mild - just not particularly cold either though.

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Euro 4 shows wide spread showers turning to snow and becoming more organised. 

Screenshot_20191209-181005_Samsung Internet.jpg

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1 minute ago, danthetan said:

Euro 4 shows wide spread showers turning to snow and becoming more organised. 

Screenshot_20191209-181005_Samsung Internet.jpg

WOW, great chart for NI,wales and scotland .For those of us in NW Eng you can see the deadly effects of the Irish sea ..

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26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the Gavin January!! - near 8c January anyone???

image.thumb.png.c463f683b7db264e107ffd549b91cf4b.png

Lies! 

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Well, at least the GFS 12Z operational isn't out on its own. So perhaps a sign of better things to come?🤔

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

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ECM T144,with UKMO for comparison 

image.thumb.jpg.4d44b03c341aa3f8fbe76cb780bd452f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f915a3e0f59c0c71a6645439fe386cbe.jpg

ECM considerably more amplified upstream, so interesting to see how this run pans out.

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Overall the wet and windy theme looks to continue ...cold vs mild sectors ...however I am seeing a shadow of potential around day 7 and it’s been there for a few runs. Looks like a potential disruption of the flow could happen. At this range the models are just ‘dipping the toe’ lol but hopefully we can build on it.

 

GFS 

 

144-168

FD5D2F91-AA28-435D-9584-5AC1665E5CBD.thumb.png.2e523012af47a70a012f828f1702e60e.png28B6877D-9CEC-497B-A665-F9FF462662C3.thumb.png.cdcbc7eb72bb5f6f838e7526ae47410f.png

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Is this, bearing in mind possible MJO-developments, real cause for optimism? Or is it just another quasi-random flap, by the GFS?:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

More runs needed?:shok:

i say : GO for it - MJO 6/7 i hope 🙂

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28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I know, but is that what Gavin P has forecast for January?

If Gavin P was a weather forecaster there’d be no time left for anything else on TV

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With no tropical forcing and an Arctic wedge acting within the predictable flow we can get the models pretty much on the same score sheet as it is not too complicated on the long wave front:

At T168 GFS, GEM and ECM:

1092338164_gfsnh-0-168(3).thumb.png.bef63e333818c940a31dce2c8defc2b4.pnggemnh-0-168.thumb.png.8a802e0d15b8d9dda1b15947799c8359.png1271118482_ECH1-168(1).thumb.gif.c366d2857ca90a49f4e780a2d8324757.gif

Knowing where the GFS goes from here and with no likely amplification in week 2 the GFS op seems a relative guide to what to expect pre-Christmas. It has had variations on a theme, mostly not cold and so anything else will probably turn into a bonus.

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38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WOW, great chart for NI,wales and scotland .For those of us in NW Eng you can see the deadly effects of the Irish sea ..

Our dreaded Nemesis.

that chart has snow for the Preston area and Rain for you at 200m asl lol

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